Gonna be busy! Philip J. Klotzbach/Dr Gray's April Numbers

[T'Bonz]

Bill Gray's April numbers....

April 3, 2007

Named Storms (NS) (9.6)
14 (Dec)
17 (Apr)

Named Storm Days (NSD) (49.1)
70
85

Hurricanes (H)(5.9)
7
9

Hurricane Days HD) (24.5)
35
40

Intense Hurricanes (IH) (2.3)
3
5

Intense Hurricane Days (IHD)(5.0)
8
11

Accumulated Cyclone Engery (ACE) (96.1)
130
170

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC)(100%)
140
185

[JonathanBelles]

link?

[cycloneye]

link?

Yes,you are right about posting a link to that information as it's important to have a source to any information that is posted.Colorado State University folks were due to release their April outlook on April 3 not on April 2.

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/

The site of Colorado State University still has the December outlook so I dont know from where he got that information.

[abajan]

link?

Yes,you are right about posting a link to that information as it's important to have a source to any information that is posted.Colorado State University folks were due to release their April outlook on April 3 not on April 2.

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/

The site of Colorado State University still has the December outlook so I dont know from where he got that information.

A few years ago, I was able to get similar information about Dr. Gray's predictions a day earlier than when it was officially released but I can't for the life of me remember the name of the website or its URL. I've been searching my bookmarks to no avail.

[cycloneye]

link?

Yes,you are right about posting a link to that information as it's important to have a source to any information that is posted.Colorado State University folks were due to release their April outlook on April 3 not on April 2.

http://typhoon.atmos.colostate.edu/forecasts/

The site of Colorado State University still has the December outlook so I dont know from where he got that information.

A few years ago, I was able to get similar information about Dr. Gray's predictions a day earlier than when it was officially released but I can't for the life of me remember the name of the website or its URL. I've been searching my bookmarks to no avail.

Keep looking and you may find it. I had the url but lost it when my computer crashed.

[T'Bonz]

Never meant to make a fuss.

I got it from Dr. Jeff Master's blog comments over at WU.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200704

As for it being due tomorrow, I know from past posts here that often people get it the day or so before. I happened to see it (actually, my brother emailed it to me) and I went and looked over there. I was surprised that no one else had seen it because you guys are weather geeks like I am.

I'll link in future, although as a woman in my late 40s, I have better things to do than prank folks. I live in Hurricane Alley, went through Wilma among other hurricanes and I find hurricane information/data to be vital.

Now hopefully the guy that posted it THERE wasn't a prankster!

[MiamiensisWx]

The information is incorrect. The numbers and information are old information from the Gray and Klotzbach June 2006 forecast. The person who posted the information on Jeff Masters' blog mislabled the data as their April 3rd (2007) release.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The information is incorrect. The numbers and information are old information from the Gray and Klotzbach June 2006 forecast. The person who posted the information on Jeff Masters' blog mislabled the data as their April 3rd (2007) release.

Actually, when I went to your link and compared the numbers T'Bonz posted to the ones on the June 2006 outlook they were different in a few areas..

Here are a few examples:

Intense Hurricane Days
Supposed 4/3/07 forecast (posted here): 11
June 2006 forecast: 13

Hurricane Days
Supposed 4/3/07 forecast (posted here): 40
June 2006 forecast: 45

This leads me to believe that the 4/3/07 outlook that T'Bonz posted may actually be correct.

[tgenius]

Dr. Gray's numbers are supposed to be released today, correct?

[wxman57]

Dr. Gray's numbers are supposed to be released today, correct?

Correct, Tuesday, April 3rd. I'm here at the NHC. If I see Phil or Dr. Gray I'll ask them to update their web page.

[HURAKAN]

Dr. Gray's numbers are supposed to be released today, correct?

[code]

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/In ... edule.html

There is the schedule and it's supposed to come out today.

[Chacor]

The news release is here: http://newsinfo.colostate.edu/index.asp ... =718105263

The full forecast [s]pdf[/s] report is due out by 8:30 am MDT, so the site should be updated soon. 17/9/5, however.

[HURAKAN]

The news release is here: http://newsinfo.colostate.edu/index.asp ... =718105263

The full forecast pdf is due out by 8:30 am MDT, so the site should be updated soon. 17/9/5, however.

At 10:30 AM EDT.

[HURAKAN]

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Fo ... april2007/

Fresh from the oven.

"We have increased our forecast from our early December prediction due largely to the rapid dissipation of El Niño which has occurred over the past couple of months. Currently, neutral ENSO conditions are observed. We expect either neutral or weak-to-moderate La Niña conditions to be present during the upcoming hurricane season. Tropical and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures remain well above their long-period averages."

No surprise here.

[MiamiensisWx]

Actually, when I went to your link and compared the numbers T'Bonz posted to the ones on the June 2006 outlook they were different in a few areas..

Here are a few examples:

Intense Hurricane Days
Supposed 4/3/07 forecast (posted here): 11
June 2006 forecast: 13

Hurricane Days
Supposed 4/3/07 forecast (posted here): 40
June 2006 forecast: 45

This leads me to believe that the 4/3/07 outlook that T'Bonz posted may actually be correct.

You were right. I was initially unsure since I briefly skimmed through the June 2006 outlook and spotted some similarities. You and T'Bonz made a nice attempt and brought it up ahead of the release! Nice job to both of you!

[x-y-no]

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2007/april2007/

Fresh from the oven.

"We have increased our forecast from our early December prediction due largely to the rapid dissipation of El Niño which has occurred over the past couple of months. Currently, neutral ENSO conditions are observed. We expect either neutral or weak-to-moderate La Niña conditions to be present during the upcoming hurricane season. Tropical and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures remain well above their long-period averages."

No surprise here.

Thanks.


The stuff about the AMM is new to me - I'm going to have to read up on that.

[wxman57]

The stuff about the AMM is new to me - I'm going to have to read up on that.

If you mean the Atlantic Multidecadal Mode, I have some info here that I posted around 2003 concerning Atlantic SSTs and potential U.S. impacts:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Florida/

[MWatkins]

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Forecasts/2007/april2007/

Fresh from the oven.

"We have increased our forecast from our early December prediction due largely to the rapid dissipation of El Niño which has occurred over the past couple of months. Currently, neutral ENSO conditions are observed. We expect either neutral or weak-to-moderate La Niña conditions to be present during the upcoming hurricane season. Tropical and North Atlantic sea surface temperatures remain well above their long-period averages."

No surprise here.

Thanks.


The stuff about the AMM is new to me - I'm going to have to read up on that.

Yes....very interesting indeed. Here is the paragraph from the Klotzback/Gray forecast explaining:

5 Atlantic Meridional Mode



A new predictor that we are evaluating for the first time this year is a prediction of the July-November Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), calculated by Dan Vimont and Jim Kossin at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. The Atlantic meridional mode evaluates the strength of the SST gradient between the northern tropical and southern tropical Atlantic, spanning from 21°S-32°N and the South American coastline to the West African coastline. A positive AMM is in place when the meridional gradient of SST between the northern tropical Atlantic and southern tropical Atlantic is greater than the long-period average. When the AMM is positive, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts northward. Consequently, convergence is enhanced in the northern tropical Atlantic, while trade wind strength and vertical wind shear in the tropical Atlantic are reduced. Also associated with a northward-shifted ITCZ are enhanced low-level vorticity and below-normal sea level pressures (Knaff 1997). When all these conditions occur, more active Atlantic basin tropical cyclone seasons are typically observed (Chiang and Vimont 2004, Klotzbach and Gray 2006). This AMM prediction, issued in early December of the previous year, explains approximately 40% of the variance of the observed AMM during the following year’s July-November period. This year’s AMM prediction is for a positive

This analysis suggests the ITCZ will have a northward shift this season, lower SLP, etc since the predictor is almost 2 standard deviations above the mean.

MW

[x-y-no]

The stuff about the AMM is new to me - I'm going to have to read up on that.

If you mean the Atlantic Multidecadal Mode, I have some info here that I posted around 2003 concerning Atlantic SSTs and potential U.S. impacts:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/Florida/

No, I was referring to this passage in the report:

5 Atlantic Meridional Mode



A new predictor that we are evaluating for the first time this year is a prediction of the July-November Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM), calculated by Dan Vimont and Jim Kossin at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. The Atlantic meridional mode evaluates the strength of the SST gradient between the northern tropical and southern tropical Atlantic, spanning from 21°S-32°N and the South American coastline to the West African coastline. A positive AMM is in place when the meridional gradient of SST between the northern tropical Atlantic and southern tropical Atlantic is greater than the long-period average. When the AMM is positive, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) shifts northward. Consequently, convergence is enhanced in the northern tropical Atlantic, while trade wind strength and vertical wind shear in the tropical Atlantic are reduced. Also associated with a northward-shifted ITCZ are enhanced low-level vorticity and below-normal sea level pressures (Knaff 1997). When all these conditions occur, more active Atlantic basin tropical cyclone seasons are typically observed (Chiang and Vimont 2004, Klotzbach and Gray 2006). This AMM prediction, issued in early December of the previous year, explains approximately 40% of the variance of the observed AMM during the following year’s July-November period. This year’s AMM prediction is for a positive AMM index of 1.9 standard deviations above the long-period average, giving us increased confidence in predicting a very active hurricane season for 2007.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

How exactly do you read this landfall map? What exactly do the numbers mean, as there seem to be no real key? Anyone have any ideas?:

http://www.e-transit.org/hurricane/map.asp