TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) April Forecast-17/9/4

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Kerry04
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TSR (Tropical Storm Risk) April Forecast-17/9/4

#1 Postby Kerry04 » Tue Apr 03, 2007 12:54 pm

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cycloneye
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#2 Postby cycloneye » Tue Apr 03, 2007 1:29 pm

:uarrow: Another confirmation of an active season ahead for us. :uarrow:
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Active season

#3 Postby hurricanetrack » Tue Apr 03, 2007 7:43 pm

I will believe it when I see it. After the terrible 2005 and 2006 early forecasts, why believe this one?

Yes, the early 2005 forecasts from everyone legit were terrible. No one ever fathomed there would be 28 named storms, etc. etc. etc. I am just not sure that these forecasts are really that helpful. If anyone can show me where they are helpful, let me know.

Anyone need reminding about 2006?
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Re: Active season

#4 Postby Grease Monkey » Tue Apr 03, 2007 10:09 pm

hurricanetrack wrote:I will believe it when I see it. After the terrible 2005 and 2006 early forecasts, why believe this one?


I don't think it can be predicted consistantly. Our recorded history is very limited and I believe it might be beginning to show. We may think that we found a pattern and it might work for a decade or so, but then things change again. A new pattern arises.

Numbers are useless to me anyways. It just seems forecasts like these are made just for media hype and drama. It's been said on this thread numerous times that it only takes one. The key component is to be prepared when you know or have a possibility that a cyclone is heading your way, so why does it matter if you know how many potential cyclones you will have this season (and I'm sure i'm not the first to bring up this question)? Will any businesses or organizations close down or relocate ahead of time when they see these numbers? The thing people are going to be looking at is when the NHC mentions something is heading their way in 5-7days. That's why I think these long-term forecasts numbers are just for entertainment and congradulations to the drama it created. Without it, I may have never been inspired to write this response. :wink:
Last edited by Grease Monkey on Tue Apr 03, 2007 10:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Active season

#5 Postby wxmann_91 » Tue Apr 03, 2007 10:13 pm

Grease Monkey wrote:
hurricanetrack wrote:I will believe it when I see it. After the terrible 2005 and 2006 early forecasts, why believe this one?


I don't think it can be predicted. Our recorded history is very limited and I believe it might be beginning to show. We may think that we found a pattern and it might work for a decade or so, but then things change again. A new pattern arises.

Numbers seem useless to me anyways. It just seems forecasts like these are made just for media hype and drama. It's been said on this thread numerous times that it only takes one. The key component is to be prepared when you know or have a possibility that a cyclone is heading your way, so why does it matter if you know how many potential cyclones you will have this season? Will any businesses or organizations close down or relocate ahead of time when they see these numbers? The thing people are going to be looking at is when the NHC mentions something is heading their way in 5-7days. That's why I think these long-term forecasts numbers are just for entertainment.


Two words: Energy companies. And there are others. They depend on accurate, dependable long range forecasts for their businesses. So, with this field of meteorology expanding rapidly, many new mets are grasping at the opportunity to get some big bucks.


But of course, as with many things that are not meant for the public to view, it gets released to the public.
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#6 Postby KatDaddy » Tue Apr 03, 2007 10:36 pm

I do not want another active season but if the upcoming pattern holds true as El Nino fades it will be more active. Of course if other factors pan out as well. Sure we are way out but the majority of the indicators point to an active season. Last thing I want is a Rita II much less a Katrina II. I hope I never see another 2005.
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