Could Tampa Bay be the next New Orleans

[Cookiely]

http://tinyurl.com/2ccanp

[JonathanBelles]

I keep saying it will be.

[Ptarmigan]

Based on the article, this is even worse than Hurricane Katrina's effect on New Orleans. The hurricane in the simulation is smaller, not large. If it was large, it would be much worse.

[Derek Ortt]

it cannot become another New Orleans. Tampa is above sea level and there ar enot levees

It could be the MGC though

[AJC3]

it cannot become another New Orleans. Tampa is above sea level and there ar enot levees

It could be the MGC though

From a property damage/dollar amount standpoint, perhaps. W/R/T loss of life - I can't see that happening, unless there was an egrigious community lack of response to the state and local emergency management instructions. I don't think you would ever see such a woeful (deer-in-the-headlights, oblivious, call it what you will) initial response to watches/warnings at the state and local level in Florida like you saw in NO/LA.

I've been a part of Florida's warning and response system for going on 13 years. The EM folks are painstakingly thorough and proactive in preparation, planning and execution.

[JonathanBelles]

Pinellas County is the small peninsula on the west coast of florida that sticks out. That peninsula is 97% developed. Nearly 1 million people would have to be moved plus all of the other people from other counties to higher ground if a cat 4-5 came here.

[gtalum]

Pinellas County and South Tampa will be completely destroyed, that's for sure.

I think it's a bit premature to say it could be the next New Orleans, though. The response to storms is better in Florida and it was in NOLA, and none of the area is below sea level so after the storm there's no dealing with neighborhoods underwater for weeks and all of the problems associated with that.

[chris_fit]

I read somewhere that there was a computer simulation conducted on a cat 4 going straight into Tampa Bay from the South.... and that would make Pinellas County the new Pinellas Island. That True?

[MiamiensisWx]

I read somewhere that there was a computer simulation conducted on a cat 4 going straight into Tampa Bay from the South.... and that would make Pinellas County the new Pinellas Island. That True?

That's true. I believe that is a SLOSH model simulation. A large Category 3 hurricane moving inland at an angle would flood all low-lying areas, and a large Category 4 would put much of Pinellas County under water. Even Category 1 hurricanes (and tropical storms) are serious in many regions (see the effects of winds during Gabrielle and Wilma in Florida), and the Tampa Bay region and western Florida is not an exception. Heavy rainfall adds to the flooding problems.

[gatorcane]

I read somewhere that there was a computer simulation conducted on a cat 4 going straight into Tampa Bay from the South.... and that would make Pinellas County the new Pinellas Island. That True?

That's true. I believe that is a SLOSH model simulation. A large Category 3 hurricane moving inland at an angle would flood all low-lying areas, and a large Category 4 would put much of Pinellas County under water. Even Category 1 hurricanes (and tropical storms) are serious in many regions (see the effects of winds during Gabrielle and Wilma in Florida), and the Tampa Bay region and western Florida is not an exception. Heavy rainfall adds to the flooding problems.

Yes I have seen that simulation...anybody have that link?

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is the animation.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/cont ... a_bay.html

A large windfield is the key to a larger surge into Pinellas County and western Florida. Even a large tropical storm would bring heavy winds, flooding, and storm surge.

[Rainband]

I read somewhere that there was a computer simulation conducted on a cat 4 going straight into Tampa Bay from the South.... and that would make Pinellas County the new Pinellas Island. That True?

That's true. I believe that is a SLOSH model simulation. A large Category 3 hurricane moving inland at an angle would flood all low-lying areas, and a large Category 4 would put much of Pinellas County under water. Even Category 1 hurricanes (and tropical storms) are serious in many regions (see the effects of winds during Gabrielle and Wilma in Florida), and the Tampa Bay region and western Florida is not an exception. Heavy rainfall adds to the flooding problems.

Yes I have seen that simulation...anybody have that link?

http://www.tbo.com/weather/hurricane/worstcase/

[chris_fit]

Yup those are the ones. That's my worst case for Florida. Thanks for posting the links guys.

[mf_dolphin]

The problem in Pinellas county isn't with the Emergency Management folks it's with the residents themselves. Typically there are way too many people that will not evacuate here and it's going to take a disaster to wake people up. Now that we had the near miss a couple of years ago I'm afraid it's going to get worse not better. Many people that did evacuate did so to Orlando and got nailed. The other problem Pinealls County has to face in teh evac routes. If you look up Pinellas county on Google Maps you'll see that 4 of the main evacuation routes are bridges. Due to the low approaches to these bridges they get closed when winds reach sustained TS force. The only real land route north out of the county is almost bumper to bumper on a normal day. To put it in a nut-shell, by the time they issue mandatory evacuations here there's not much chance of getting out.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Where I live...A tropical Storm causes severe flooding.
Anything above a TS with surge and I'm evacuating to Plant City or Inland Hillsborough.

[JonathanBelles]

Im lucky, it takes 13" of rain in 8 hours to flood (feb. 26 , 2006) to flood. We didnt have flooding during any of the hurricanes and havent had flooding in at least 10 years on our street.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Im lucky, it takes 13" of rain in 8 hours to flood (feb. 26 , 2006) to flood. We didnt have flooding during any of the hurricanes and havent had flooding in at least 10 years on our street.

I live right by Shore Acres Just North of the St. Pete Peir and right near Tampa Bay With a Canal connected to tampa bay right by me.
We flood in a big thunderstorm...a cat one or above would be very scary.

[JonathanBelles]

Why in the world did you move to the lowest point in pinellas county. I've heard it is below sea level. I would move to inland pinellas.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Why in the world did you move to the lowest point in pinellas county. I've heard it is below sea level. I would move to inland pinellas.

Well, actually my parents moved here 11 years ago. It's 10 feet Above Sea Level At My House, I'm not IN shore acres, Im on the higher ground just outside it.

[dixiebreeze]

The problem in Pinellas county isn't with the Emergency Management folks it's with the residents themselves. Typically there are way too many people that will not evacuate here and it's going to take a disaster to wake people up. Now that we had the near miss a couple of years ago I'm afraid it's going to get worse not better. Many people that did evacuate did so to Orlando and got nailed. The other problem Pinealls County has to face in teh evac routes. If you look up Pinellas county on Google Maps you'll see that 4 of the main evacuation routes are bridges. Due to the low approaches to these bridges they get closed when winds reach sustained TS force. The only real land route north out of the county is almost bumper to bumper on a normal day. To put it in a nut-shell, by the time they issue mandatory evacuations here there's not much chance of getting out.

Dolphin, you are so right. Even if everyone evacuated as mandated, it would be an unimaginable nightmare trying to move traffic. Some of the E routes are north up through our area and those roads are already jammed on a daily basis. Hurricane Elena is a good example -- and she didn't even come ashore!