Analysis,Models,Sat Pics of Low in Western Atlantic

[cycloneye]

4/29/07 GFS 12z Loop



I know that long range forecasts exceeding 144 hours are not so good but I haved been looking at the GFS runs for the past four days and they come out with a low pressure in the Caribbean.The model has that low appearing in the second week of May.Let's see if any other global model joins the GFS as time goes on or this is only a phantom GFS low.



4/29/07 GFS 18z Loop

[punkyg]

The low i saw looked like it was heading east.

[cycloneye]

The low i saw looked like it was heading east.

At this time of the year systems tend to move NE or Eastward but as summer arrives then the disturbances move from East to West.

[tgenius]

Luis I would think that besides it being long range GFS which is notorious for being off, that its too early... but then again stranger things have happend!

[cycloneye]

4/30/07 GFS 6z Loop

That low keeps showing up.

[boca]

Luis don't get so excited yet my bet is this is a phantom low. I'm taking my bet to Vegas.

[cycloneye]

4/30/07 GFS 12z Loop



Another run,another showing of the Caribbean low.But it does not deepen.

Boca,I also say this is phantom. Until other global models jump on this I am on the phantom bandwagon.

[Opal storm]

Consider this a teaser for what's to come in a few months.

[Steve H.]

Euro 12Z shows a closed 500 hPa feaure SE of Florida in the same time frame. Its early for such a system to develop, but with that elongated high pressure over the Atlantic, maybe it will bring some much needed rain over the SE US

[cycloneye]

NCEP Statement on improving GFS long range forecasts.



Interesting information here about changes that will be made to improve the long range GFS.

[cycloneye]

The 18z run still has the Caribbean teasing low which goes northward into the Bahamas.



4/30/07 18z GFS Loop

[SouthFloridawx]

I noticed this last night in my nightly weather checkup...

[MiamiensisWx]

The operational GFS runs do not indicate tropical development. This is not an upper-level feature. It is a weak surface (low-level) low. In addition, the system is associated with a surface trough. When this detail is combined with the current pattern, I do not expect any development. Many long-range events fade in the guidance as the time range of the prognosticated event approaches.

[cycloneye]

5/1/07 12z GFS Loop



The spurious low that moves NE towards the Bahamas from the Caribbean sea,continues to show up in the latest run at 12z.

[boca]

The 12z GFS doesn't seem to eject that low off to the NE as quickly as the 00zGFS from last night. If this low is a phantom feature the GFS is developing it in the same place run after run, and not all over the place. Its kind of believeable but this sort of thing happens ever spring about this time.

[cycloneye]

5/2/07 6z GFS Loop



GFS continues to be consistant showing this low,but as this 6z run,it deepens it northnortheast of the Leewards.I would like to see more models jumping on this to make this scenario more credible.

[seaswing]

We SURE could use some rain in Florida! Hot, smokey....much like August! A tropical system would help!

[cycloneye]

5/2/07 12z GFS Loop



Phantom,spurious low here from the GFS.Nothing of interest in this 12z run.What I will do is to not post anymore runs until there is anything of interest or other models show this kind of scenario.

[punkyg]

I just look at the gfs loop and it looks like i saw 3 lows.the first one i saw was moving northeast of the bahamas, the second one crossed into the pacific. the last one was at the end of the loop looked like it was moving northwest out of the carribean.now correct me if i'm wrong. i know this all won't develop.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

With the subtropical jet creating so much shear I doubt we see anything for at least 2-3 weeks.