May be the first tropical wave of the year in atlantic:
The largest
concentration of convection near the ITCZ is the numerous
moderate from 2s-5n between 25w-35w. This area has been showing
some tropical wave-like characteristics over the last day or
so...and may be added as either a trough or a wave to the 1800
UTC map.
THE FIRST TROPICAL WAVE OF THE YEAR?
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MiamiensisWx
I believe we had our first tropical wave a few weeks ago. Overall, conditions over interior western Africa appear to be more conducive for low-level convergence. This synoptic feature allows favorable propagation of easterly waves with low-level meso support. Note the lack of an unfavorable monsoonal trough (unlike 2006). With a mean subtropical ridge located further north, we could see more favorable conditions over the MDR. We could see a more active Cape Verde season.
In addition, pressures in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and western Atlantic are much lower than 2006. This could indicate the potential for homegrown development and an active Cape Verde season. With a stronger ridge (further north) and lower westerly shear, we could see more landfalls.
Satellite observation can be a good tool to discern the pattern alterations and progression of the mean flow (longwave trends). Since patterns are continually changing, we should monitor satellite trends more closely during all seasons. When you use your eyes to observe trends, you can judge the validity of the models' prognostications (and correctly forecast against the guidance when necessary).
In addition, pressures in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and western Atlantic are much lower than 2006. This could indicate the potential for homegrown development and an active Cape Verde season. With a stronger ridge (further north) and lower westerly shear, we could see more landfalls.
Satellite observation can be a good tool to discern the pattern alterations and progression of the mean flow (longwave trends). Since patterns are continually changing, we should monitor satellite trends more closely during all seasons. When you use your eyes to observe trends, you can judge the validity of the models' prognostications (and correctly forecast against the guidance when necessary).
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cycloneye
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2007
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 3N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2N47W. THE LARGEST
CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 23/24W ON THE 18Z SURFACE MAP. DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS...THE STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH HAS DIMINISHED A BIT. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION CAME OFF
THE AFRICAN COAST TWO DAYS AGO AND HAS BEEN MOVING WWD SHOWING
SOME TROPICAL WAVE-LIKE CHARACTERISTICS. AS THE DAY WORE ON...A
DRIFTING BUOY LOCATED NEAR 23W SHOWED A WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO SE
WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 25W-32W. ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER AFRICA APPROACHING
THE PRIME MERIDIAN.
The above is the 8:05 PM discussion from NHC.They did not mention this in the 18:00 analysis as a wave but it's a surface trough.
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE MAY 01 2007
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 3N30W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AT 40W INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 2N47W. THE LARGEST
CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 23/24W ON THE 18Z SURFACE MAP. DURING THE
LAST FEW HOURS...THE STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH HAS DIMINISHED A BIT. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION CAME OFF
THE AFRICAN COAST TWO DAYS AGO AND HAS BEEN MOVING WWD SHOWING
SOME TROPICAL WAVE-LIKE CHARACTERISTICS. AS THE DAY WORE ON...A
DRIFTING BUOY LOCATED NEAR 23W SHOWED A WIND SHIFT FROM NE TO SE
WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN 25W-32W. ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER AFRICA APPROACHING
THE PRIME MERIDIAN.
The above is the 8:05 PM discussion from NHC.They did not mention this in the 18:00 analysis as a wave but it's a surface trough.
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