Well... watching that low start wind down, it's about time to start watching the Caribbean in a week or two. Been watching the GFS forecast pretty low shear for a while. It will be interesting to see if we may get a little something going down there. It probably won't last farther north, with the sub-tropical jet stream hanging around. GFS forecasting upper level high pressure and light winds, not all the time, for a good majority of the forecast... and it's been pretty consistent too.
With already below normal shear for a good portion of the Tropical Atlantic, it will be interesting what happens when the Jet finally pulls out and moves north to it summer time position. I'd say, as all the forecasters are saying now...
La Nina - Lower than normal shear.
Above normal Atlantic SST'S
Low Background Pressure
Some talk about a SE Coast Ridge, maybe a connection up a bit with the Atlantic ridge.
It will be interesting to see...
Below I've posted the Upper Level Wind and Wind Shear Forecast from GFS.
Those are just some thoughts I have been having the past few weeks. Please feel free to comment, your thoughts.
[web]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//gfs/2007050718//850200shear26.png[/web]
144 Hours 250mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_144l.gif
168 Hours 250mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif
192 Hours 250mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_192l.gif
Feel free to check it out for yourself here:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... arib.shtml
A few thoughts on the tropics...
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- SouthFloridawx
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A few thoughts on the tropics...
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- Tampa Bay Hurricane
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I agree with you, and with lower than normal shear
and lower than normal pressures, and
higher than normal SSTs I think we
could see a very severe season,
and I would not rule out a Tropical
Storm developing from a wave during the
next 2-4 weeks over the NW Carribean
if the shear stays low and things moisten up.
With this spring as hot as it has been, record hot, the waters
contain serious heat content...and I do not doubt that
the 2007 hurricane season could be one for the
record books...I am really concerned that this
could be a very bad season during August-September.
Maybe I'm just scaring myself looking at the factors, ssts,
shear, moisture, convergence of moisture and additional
moisture and tropical waves coming off of Africa,
but I've got a really bad feeling about this year.
and lower than normal pressures, and
higher than normal SSTs I think we
could see a very severe season,
and I would not rule out a Tropical
Storm developing from a wave during the
next 2-4 weeks over the NW Carribean
if the shear stays low and things moisten up.
With this spring as hot as it has been, record hot, the waters
contain serious heat content...and I do not doubt that
the 2007 hurricane season could be one for the
record books...I am really concerned that this
could be a very bad season during August-September.
Maybe I'm just scaring myself looking at the factors, ssts,
shear, moisture, convergence of moisture and additional
moisture and tropical waves coming off of Africa,
but I've got a really bad feeling about this year.
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- Tampa Bay Hurricane
- Category 5
- Posts: 5597
- Age: 37
- Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
- Location: St. Petersburg, FL
We've broken so many heat records this past winter and spring,
there's nothing to stop the heat, that's why I'm worried about
what the heat will do to the oceans by august
Sea Surface Temperatures Reached in Excess of 86 degrees
over Key West this past week...this is mind-boggling for early
May...August-September look like higher SSTs and could
be very nasty months.
Forgive me for my pre-season hype....
there's nothing to stop the heat, that's why I'm worried about
what the heat will do to the oceans by august
Sea Surface Temperatures Reached in Excess of 86 degrees
over Key West this past week...this is mind-boggling for early
May...August-September look like higher SSTs and could
be very nasty months.
Forgive me for my pre-season hype....
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- Extremeweatherguy
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- Location: Florida
Yeah, I am also beginning to think we could see an early storm or two this year. Might have to watch closely this June for the typical NW Caribbean or GOM storm to develop. I wouldn't rule out something trying to spin up in late May though. We'll see. I still think the worst part of the season will start in August.
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