AL012007 Subtropical Storm Andrea

[Chacor]

916
WTNT21 KNHC 091444
TCMAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1500 UTC WED MAY 09 2007

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 79.3W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 79.3W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 79.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.6N 79.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 30.2N 80.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.8N 81.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.6N 81.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.5N 81.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 29.5N 81.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 79.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB
[hr]
000
WTNT31 KNHC 091443
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1100 AM EDT WED MAY 09 2007

...EARLY-SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST...

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST HAS ACQUIRED SUBTROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND
GEORGIA SOUTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH FLORIDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 140
MILES...225 KM...SOUTHEAST OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA AND ABOUT 150 MILES
...240 KM...NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.

ANDREA IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 3 MPH. A CONTINUED
SLOW MOTION AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALONG THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. COAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...MAINLY TO
THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

SINCE THE HEAVIEST RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ANDREA ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ANDREA IS NOT EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER ANY LAND AREAS THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY MORNING.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...30.8 N...79.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Regit]

Now if it will only sit out there and get it's act together for a while, then move into FL/GA. So far, the area doing best in terms of rain is Charleston.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I want lots of rain from this, but we are also supposed to be going to Disney World on Friday, and I don't want that ruined.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

YESSSS!!!!!!! WAHOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
YIPPPEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

YEA BABY
GO ANDREA GO PUT OUT OUR DROUGHT AND WILDFIRES

THANK YOU MOTHER NATURE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Damar91]

I agree, but unfortunately I feel its going to take alot more than our first storm of the season to even put a dent in our drought situation......

[Weatherboy1]

I haven't posted at all this year and didn't expect to until we got closer to June 1. But lo and behold, this Andrea character has lost her patience. Crazy! Anyway, good to see you all -- looking forward to another season of tracking and talking.

-Mike

[Chacor]

000
WTNT41 KNHC 091459
TCDAT1
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1100 AM EDT WED MAY 09 2007

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN INVESTIGATING THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE INITIAL LEG OF THE MISSION WAS FLOWN AT 300 MB FROM
WEST TO EAST OVER THE CIRCULATION CENTER...AND SEVERAL DROPSONDES
WERE RELEASED. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILES REVEAL A RATHER FLAT
THERMAL CROSS-SECTION...NOT INDICATING A DISCERNIBLE WARM OR COLD
CORE AT ANY VERTICAL LEVEL. THE WIND PROFILES...HOWEVER...SHOW
WINDS INCREASING WITH HEIGHT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION
AND DECREASING WITH HEIGHT IN THE EASTERN HALF. GOES IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT...COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS CONSOLIDATED CLOSER TO THE CENTER...BUT PRIMARILY IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT HINT OF UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW WHICH WAS COMPLETELY ABSENT YESTERDAY...BUT THE SYSTEM
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. ALSO...THE
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS HAS CONTRACTED FROM MORE THAN 100 N MI
YESTERDAY TO ABOUT 50-60 N MI THIS MORNING. BASED ON THE HYBRID
STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM...ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED ON
SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA. THE 40 KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
AN EARLY MORNING QUIKSCAT PASS AND RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA FROM 850
MB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS SLOW AND GENERALLY WESTWARD...ABOUT 270
DEGREES AT 4 KT. SINCE ANDREA IS ESSENTIALLY TRAPPED WITHIN A
MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST TO
NOT MOVE MUCH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ANDREA WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY...BUT IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENERALLY FOLLOWS
THE SCENARIO PAINTED BY ALL OF THE MODELS...TAKING THE SYSTEM
SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR
SO. NONE OF THE MODELS BRING ANDREA INLAND...AND NEITHER DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. ANDREA IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA-SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF NO MORE THAN ABOUT 25 CELSIUS...AND THEY WILL NOT
GET ANY WARMER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK. THEREFORE A SLOW
WEAKENING TREND IS ANTICIPATED AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
DISSIPATION NEAR THE COAST IN LESS THAN FIVE DAYS. HOWEVER...SINCE
ANDREA MIGHT BRING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE TO THE COAST...A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 30.8N 79.3W 40 KT
12HR VT 10/0000Z 30.6N 79.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 10/1200Z 30.2N 80.6W 35 KT
36HR VT 11/0000Z 29.8N 81.0W 35 KT
48HR VT 11/1200Z 29.6N 81.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 12/1200Z 29.5N 81.0W 25 KT
96HR VT 13/1200Z 29.5N 81.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[Stratusxpeye]

YESSSS!!!!!!! WAHOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
YIPPPEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

YEA BABY
GO ANDREA GO PUT OUT OUR DROUGHT AND WILDFIRES

THANK YOU MOTHER NATURE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I really don't think it's going to do much here in central florida where the drought index is highest. It'll help fuel some fires with the wind though.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

It devleoped because of two factors.

1# It moved over the 76-78 degree Gulf stream.
2# Low shear

A buoy off Florida shows that the water it is now moving into is in the lower 70s. Also upper level wind shear is increasing. So I don't expect it to do anything but a slow weaken.

[Regit]

It may still have a chance to get some moisture together. Storms can be very weak but still have a ton of rain. Not likely at this point, but people in Florida and Georgia can hope.

[Chacor]

Can a mod please merge this with the main thread (ex-90L, now renamed) or close either thread? Thanks!