Low Pressure in the NW Caribbean/SE GOM: 1006mb

[drezee]

NAM has been showing a low developing for the past few runs. It may be an interesting setup.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

GFS was hinting at something in the Caribbean on
previous runs.

Shear is pretty high this time of year...
it will be a wait and see game

This is contingent upon the shear forecast for
the caribbean and the moisture content in that
region.

[HURAKAN]

Right now windshear is up to 60 knots in the NW Caribbean, and the tendency over the past 24 hours is not helping a lot.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://i40.photobucket.com/albums/e244/zdtadmin/wg8shrZ.gif

http://i40.photobucket.com/albums/e244/ ... g8shtZ.gif

Right now windshear is up to 60 knots in the NW Caribbean, and the tendency over the past 24 hours is not helping a lot.

Bear in mind those conditions may not be the same in 84 Hours.

[Meso]

nm

[Coredesat]

Bear in mind those conditions may not be the same in 84 Hours.

Here's the 84-hour GFS shear product:

[web]http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs//gfs/2007051112//850200shear14.png[/web]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Even with the super strong tropical Atlantic shear with 30 knot plus to the high. This system is turning out to be something else.

[canegrl04]

Imagine how nuts the media will go if this thing were to eventually develope into a TS

[CrazyC83]

Imagine how nuts the media will go if this thing were to eventually develope into a TS

2 storms before hurricane season even begins? That would send out the media for sure...

[canegrl04]

Imagine how nuts the media will go if this thing were to eventually develope into a TS

2 storms before hurricane season even begins? That would send out the media for sure...

Some guy on CNN already described Andrea (and the fires) as "Biblical porpotions".They sometimes do get more dramatic than we on the board

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I wonder how they would of reacted if it was 1951 in hurricane Able was spinning. Which was 100 knot hurricane that lasted over a week.

[AnnularCane]

What part of Andrea is "Biblical proportions"? Because she's a preseason storm?

[Cryomaniac]

Imagine how nuts the media will go if this thing were to eventually develope into a TS

2 storms before hurricane season even begins? That would send out the media for sure...

Stranger things have happened, this may be one of them.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Considering the fact that the models correctly predicted Andrea, I think this area also needs to be watched. However, the chances of anything actually developing are probably very remote. It would be very, very rare to see 2 pre-season storms like that.

[CrazyC83]

I wonder how they would of reacted if it was 1951 in hurricane Able was spinning. Which was 100 knot hurricane that lasted over a week.

Shear was probably zero and the air was probably as moist as can be to allow such to develop in May. After all, even 2005 didn't give us a pre-season storm of any intensity, let alone a record-breaker (the only thing missing from that insane year!).

[Opal storm]

Not gonna happen guys. I know Andrea has got us all excited but it's not even hurricane season yet.

[AnnularCane]

Not gonna happen guys. I know Andrea has got us all excited but it's not even hurricane season yet.

Oh yeah.

I would be shocked to see Barry before June, at least. Although when it comes to the tropics, never say never.

[MiamiensisWx]

I wonder how they would of reacted if it was 1951 in hurricane Able was spinning. Which was 100 knot hurricane that lasted over a week.

Shear was probably zero and the air was probably as moist as can be to allow such to develop in May. After all, even 2005 didn't give us a pre-season storm of any intensity, let alone a record-breaker (the only thing missing from that insane year!).

Able certainly was a unique event. Reconnaissance observations reported a well-defined eye. Despite this information, I believe the hurricane's intensity was overestimated. Most observations during Able's duration indicate that the pressure gradient and windfield (in terms of extent) was moderate, but it is uncertain if flight-level winds mixed to the surface using the 90 percent reduction. In addition, reconnaissance observations may have been inaccurate prior to 1980. When you consider the early formation and TC climatology for that month, Able likely peaked at Category 2 intensity.

[NDG]

Interesting to see that the NAM still keeps developing a system down in the Caribbean on its 12z & 00z runs, too bad that we are talking about the NAM, thus the UKMET lowers pressures down there and the GFS brings a disturbance out of the Caribbean and across Cuba and then close a low east of the Bahamas.

[Meso]

Yeah,Here's the gfs forecast for 120 hours
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/20 ... /slp20.png