Instead of numbers-07 possible landfall locations

[Berwick Bay]

[b]I have a hunch that 07 may be a repeat of 05 not so much in the quantity of activity but in the focus of activity toward the Carribean and Gulf of Mexico. Andrea's early season formation off the Carolina's as a sub-tropical storm may herald a revitilization of the Bahama's breeding ground as we move into mid-season (like 05). This area(about 400 miles or so south of where Andrea formed) off SE Fl proved to be the achilles heel for the Gulf Coast in 05 as storms moved generally west not north into the Gulf. If I had to guess at a couple of vulnerable spots along the Gulf coast this year, I would venture the names of NEW IBERIA, LA. and PASCAGOULA, MISS. as areas to watch. I have my reasons for those places but I will wait until later in the season to talk more about them.

[pojo]

[b]I have a hunch that 07 may be a repeat of 05 not so much in the quantity of activity but in the focus of activity toward the Carribean and Gulf of Mexico. Andrea's early season formation off the Carolina's as a sub-tropical storm may herald a revitilization of the Bahama's breeding ground as we move into mid-season (like 05). This area(about 400 miles or so south of where Andrea formed) off SE Fl proved to be the achilles heel for the Gulf Coast in 05 as storms moved generally west not north into the Gulf. If I had to guess at a couple of vulnerable spots along the Gulf coast this year, I would venture the names of NEW IBERIA, LA. and PASCAGOULA, MISS. as areas to watch. I have my reasons for those places but I will wait until later in the season to talk more about them.

Don't jinx Pascagoula, MS! They've had enough storms!

[Opal storm]

No offense but I hope your dead wrong Berwick Bay.

[CajunMama]

No offense but I hope your dead wrong Berwick Bay.

Me too Opal being the New Iberia is 20 miles south of me! And we know that Pascagoula is still rebuilding after Katrina. No one along the gulf coast needs another storm with so much rebuilding going on.

[pojo]

No offense but I hope your dead wrong Berwick Bay.

Me too Opal being the New Iberia is 20 miles south of me! And we know that Pascagoula is still rebuilding after Katrina. No one along the gulf coast needs another storm with so much rebuilding going on.

I'd rather stay flying out of either St. Croix or Biloxi... Its a beast to move everyone and the planes to somewhere else!

[Bluefrog]

Let me just say if I could find where you are located ... I would come kick your *** for saying that ... .. and I'm a girl !!

Look...as a person who lost everything in Katrina in PASCAGOULA, MISS ... be careful saying things like that ... it's still very sensitive here and still hurts like you can't even imagine.

[LSU2001]

Split the difference between New Iberia and Pascagoula and you have New Orleans, Louisiana. Believe me nobody on the gulf coast from FLA to Texas can afford any storm. However, I have the feeling that the gulf will be active this year as well. Maybe they can all just dissipate once they come into the gulf

Tim

By the way Berwick Bay, would you happen to be near Morgan City???

[Berwick Bay]

Split the difference between New Iberia and Pascagoula and you have New Orleans, Louisiana. Believe me nobody on the gulf coast from FLA to Texas can afford any storm. However, I have the feeling that the gulf will be active this year as well. Maybe they can all just dissipate once they come into the gulf

Tim

By the way Berwick Bay, would you happen to be near Morgan City???

Moved away in the early 90's.

[ROCK]

Split the difference between New Iberia and Pascagoula and you have New Orleans, Louisiana. Believe me nobody on the gulf coast from FLA to Texas can afford any storm. However, I have the feeling that the gulf will be active this year as well. Maybe they can all just dissipate once they come into the gulf

Tim

By the way Berwick Bay, would you happen to be near Morgan City???

We get a cane into LA or TX all of us can expect 4+ gallon gas. We are still not at full capacity of the refineries from Rita and Kat. I strong cane would devestate our supply and make the 70's gas shortage look like a picnic....JMO....

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

What happens during this hurricane season in terms
of landfalls is likely to depend on the atmospheric
synoptics of High Pressure Over the Atlantic
and the Positioning of Troughs at the time that
a storm develops and runs its course.

[Opal storm]

Split the difference between New Iberia and Pascagoula and you have New Orleans, Louisiana. Believe me nobody on the gulf coast from FLA to Texas can afford any storm. However, I have the feeling that the gulf will be active this year as well. Maybe they can all just dissipate once they come into the gulf

Tim

By the way Berwick Bay, would you happen to be near Morgan City???

We get a cane into LA or TX all of us can expect 4+ gallon gas. We are still not at full capacity of the refineries from Rita and Kat. I strong cane would devestate our supply and make the 70's gas shortage look like a picnic....JMO....

I don't even think it would take a landfall, the minute a major cane enters the Gulf it will go up to 4+ I'm afraid. Just that Accuwx forecast from a few weeks ago made the gas prices shoot up.

[southerngale]

Fortunately, your guess is as good as anyone else's and nobody knows where (or even if) a hurricane will make landfall in the U.S. When I see my area targeted by numerous models or in the cone, then I'll worry.

Until then, all the guesses in the world are just that... guesses.

[brunota2003]

I guess that somewhere will be hit by something. That is my prediction, and I'm sticking to it...

[Stormavoider]

I am prepairing to move from Florida to NC to excape the unbelievable homeowners insurance cost. So, knowing my luck, I am expecting almost every storm+ to hit North Carolina for the next couple seasons.

[Berwick Bay]

Fortunately, your guess is as good as anyone else's and nobody knows where (or even if) a hurricane will make landfall in the U.S. When I see my area targeted by numerous models or in the cone, then I'll worry.

Until then, all the guesses in the world are just that... guesses.

About the accuracy of guesses. Perhaps the guesses (if you will) of some ARE better than those of others. For instance, some made guesses as recently as last year about the landfall probablity of storms hitting the northeast (Bastardi) and the overall percentage of landfall probabilty of storms hitting the Gulf and Atlantic Coasts (Dr. Gray). Both of theses GUESSES received vast media coverage and both turned about to be DEAD WRONG!. Now as for my guesses, they are much more specific in regards to absolute landfall locations. I have my reasons for those predictions. As I said, I will go into that a little later in the season. Perhaps the guesses of some ARE better than those of others, no matter what their supposed qualifications may be. In my opening post, I referred to the ART of hurricane forecasting and prediction, rather than the science. I'll stand by that. Sometimes the numbers, like the proverbial trees, can obscure the forest.

[johngaltfla]

I'm not willing to speculate on this subject until I see where the Bermuda high settles in for the summer in late June to mid-July....

[pojo]

If we start flying... SOMEWHERE along the US coastline will be affected.

[johngaltfla]

If we start flying... SOMEWHERE along the US coastline will be affected.

Good luck to you guys this season. If we lose that bird in orbit, we're all going to be in big trouble and odds are, you'll be flying more and longer missions......

[pojo]

If we start flying... SOMEWHERE along the US coastline will be affected.

Good luck to you guys this season. If we lose that bird in orbit, we're all going to be in big trouble and odds are, you'll be flying more and longer missions......

You are extremely correct. We already fly LONG missions.... lose one of our birds means more crews, less planes.... pain the arse all around!

[Regit]

I am prepairing to move from Florida to NC to excape the unbelievable homeowners insurance cost. So, knowing my luck, I am expecting almost every storm+ to hit North Carolina for the next couple seasons.

I know someone on the NC coast who had his insurance policy cancelled. The company cited "extremely high risk for a devastating hurricane." It classified devastating as Cat 4+. North Carolina has never had a Cat 4 make landfall there.

Insurance companies are getting ridiculous.