GFS Long Range for entertainment purposes

[Vortex]

H-372
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_372l.gif

H-384
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_384l.gif


Florida could certtainly use the rain!!!

[Meso]

156 hours http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/20 ... /slp26.png
162 hours http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/20 ... /slp27.png

[cycloneye]

6z GFS Long Range Loop



As vortex says in the title,for entretainment,look at this loop of GFS being this the 6z run. When other global models join GFS,then I will believe it's scenarios about this stuff forming in the Caribbean in the last week of May.

[Thunder44]

156 hours http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/20 ... /slp26.png
162 hours http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/20 ... /slp27.png

I was just taking a look at that. It develops a closed low in the Bahamas on Day 2 and 3 than it intensifies and takes up to the Gulf of Maine by day 7.

[Thunder44]

Guess what the 0z EC has it too:

[Opal storm]

Ah..I see the ole Long Range GFS thread is back!

*sits back and eats some popcorn*

[angelwing]

I'll get some soda if you share the popcorn

[Steve]

What's interesting is the way the highs are coming down out of the north and moving off the coast +/- North Carolnia. It will be interesting if we get the 2005 situation later where they were merging and hooking up with the Bermuda high off the coast, or if it happens at a different latitude or if they hook up at all. But the exit from the CONUS @ +/- NC is reminiscent of what the summer pattern from 2005.

Steve

[Opal storm]

What's interesting is the way the highs are coming down out of the north and moving off the coast +/- North Carolnia. It will be interesting if we get the 2005 situation later where they were merging and hooking up with the Bermuda high off the coast, or if it happens at a different latitude or if they hook up at all. But the exit from the CONUS @ +/- NC is reminiscent of what the summer pattern from 2005.

Steve

Well I hope it doesn't set up to where everything is pushed to the SE US coastline like 2005.

[cycloneye]

18z GFS Loop



Ready with your popcorn folks.? Enjoy this GFS 18z run Loop.

[Berwick Bay]

I think this is especially so early in the season. Now during the Cape Verde Season you can begin to get some confidence in these things (its easier for the computers to handle the consistent stream of waves coming off the African Coast). But as for tropical formation in the Caribbean or Gulf, they're pretty much hit or miss (in my opinion). Like one of the posters said FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY.

[Opal storm]

18z GFS Loop



Ready with your popcorn folks.? Enjoy this GFS 18z run Loop.

That loop has stuff exploding everywhere on the map!

[cycloneye]

6z GFS Loop



This is the 6z GFS long range loop.As you can see many lows appear.Which of them will be for real is the question.

[hial2]

[/url][/b]
.As you can see many lows appear.Which of them will be for real is the question.

...if any....

[cycloneye]

5/14/07 12z GFS Long Range Loop



Low after low keep comming out by GFS,Spurious,phantoms or for real? What I am eying is the Caribbean stuff by the last week of May,to see if other models join GFS as time gets closer.

[Meso]

Like said above...Closed low after closed low predicted by the GFS even within the next 170 hours
102 hours http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/20 ... /slp17.png
168 hours http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/gfs/20 ... /slp28.png

[cycloneye]

12z GFS 5/15/07 Long Range loop



The 12z GFS picks on the low that some models develop in a few days,as well another low developing in the Western Caribbean on the last week of May.

[skysummit]

I don't remember the GFS showing these lows last year this early. Did it?

[AJC3]

These spurious lows are a well-known artifact of the GFS's notorious convective feedback. Good way to tell what's going on is to look at the H50 vorticity and 6-hour QPF fields. Whenever you see these little round vort/qpf bullseyes all over the place, you'll know what's going on.

[AJC3]

Dupe post