Does this pattern look Ominous for the Western Gulf?

[HouTXmetro]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/nogaps ... /slp24.png

Storms will have chance to escape before reaching U.S. but low riding Cape Verde storms will be primed to strike the Western Gulf. Of course this can change by the heart of Hurricane season but what do you guys think?

[A1A]

I know one thing, I don't think Houston will ever evacuate again en masse after the Rita debacle.

[Opal storm]

I agree right now the pattern does show that a likely track for storms would be more westerly towards TX/MX Gulf coast. Right now Florida and much of the eastern Gulf coast is buried under this ridge which is giving us this drought and wildfires.

[Berwick Bay]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/nogaps/2007051500/slp24.png

Storms will have chance to escape before reaching U.S. but low riding Cape Verde storms will be primed to strike the Western Gulf. Of course this can change by the heart of Hurricane season but what do you guys think?

I wouldnt't read too much into this right now TX. The Cape Verde Wave Train will tend to gather latitude (move further north) by Aug. Its cyclical. But I do think that you still have reason to be concerned. For the last few years, the # of storms produced from the Cape Verde area off Africa has been down. Even in the monumental season of '05, there were almost no storms produced from off the African Coast (incredible). If this trend continues (as I think it will), while the overall conditions for tropical development remain favorable, then like the '05 season storms will develop further west closer to the U.S. mainland. This is bad for the Gulf of Mexico. Its the main reason why I continue to prefer landfalls this year along the northern Gulf Coast (Pascagoula, Miss. and New Iberia. La.) Although a significant landfall in Tx. is not out of the question. My third pick for landfall would have to be Brownsville, Tx.

[Jagno]

I know one thing, I don't think Houston will ever evacuate again en masse after the Rita debacle.

I trust that folks will learn to get out earlier and that the state has used the Rita evac to improve on evacuation plans. I didn't have to be told to get out. I could see it with my own eyes and I had S2K so I got out way ahead of the masses. I'd rather leave 100 times and be missed than to ever come home again and find every material thing I've worked all my life for is gone. I had my kids, DH and family alive and that is way more important than a dry run.

[perk]

There were alot of mistakes made concerning the evacuation during hurricane Rita. As all of you know the evacuation is carried out in zones AB&C all of which have to be evacuated in the event of a category 5 hurricane, but before those evacuations could be completed non evac areas were hitting the road too. Compound that with the fact that our state and local officials had'nt went through an evacuation since Alicia, they had no idea how to handle a major evacuation like they faced with Rita.

[Extremeweatherguy]

too early in the game to know for sure. However, sometimes these early patterns do end up sticking around. Should be interesting to see how the season plays out, but for now I think we should give it another month or two before buying into this pattern as a definite.

[Ptarmigan]

I know one thing, I don't think Houston will ever evacuate again en masse after the Rita debacle.

Too many people didn't need to evaucate during Rita.

[perk]

You're right about too many people trying to get out the same time. People north of I-10 were evacuating.

[Swimdude]

I know one thing, I don't think Houston will ever evacuate again en masse after the Rita debacle.

Too many people didn't need to evaucate during Rita.

Yes, but unfortunately for our friends north of us, many who NEEDED to evacuate, didn't.

[KatDaddy]

A massive evacuation will result in the same chaos as Rita. We have way to many people to get out of harms way in the Houston-Galveston area and that is a fact. Many people will be staying next time around. Hopefully those staying will be smart enough to be out of the storm surge zones and move to a strong shelter with weeks worth of food and water.

[vbhoutex]

too early in the game to know for sure. However, sometimes these early patterns do end up sticking around. Should be interesting to see how the season plays out, but for now I think we should give it another month or two before buying into this pattern as a definite.

Good answer. If that pattern were to hold for a few more months I would become quite worried.

[gtalum]

I agree right now the pattern does show that a likely track for storms would be more westerly towards TX/MX Gulf coast. Right now Florida and much of the eastern Gulf coast is buried under this ridge which is giving us this drought and wildfires.

Isn't the ridge pretty much always over Florida up until May or early June? We're always dry this time of year, though not always THIS dry.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well, here's my amateur opinion, if the current ridge holds,
I could see a hurricane possibly impacting
Texas this season, with the ridge as strong as it
is right now.

[JonathanBelles]

I am begininng to think that the East coast of florida, West coastst of Texas, and Cape Hatteras will be in the line of fire the most this season. With that ridge in place Texas will have the greatest threat.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Basically, if the current ridging pattern holds through August or September,
Texas will face a heightened threat of hurricane strikes. Again this
is just my amateur opinion I am NO expert by any means.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

Even during a major hurricane strike, just going to a sturdy structure in Katy would be safe enough....

[Opal storm]

I agree right now the pattern does show that a likely track for storms would be more westerly towards TX/MX Gulf coast. Right now Florida and much of the eastern Gulf coast is buried under this ridge which is giving us this drought and wildfires.

This graphic shows what I'm talking about.

[WhiteShirt]

I trust that folks will learn to get out earlier and that the state has used the Rita evac to improve on evacuation plans. I didn't have to be told to get out. I could see it with my own eyes and I had S2K so I got out way ahead of the masses. I'd rather leave 100 times and be missed than to ever come home again and find every material thing I've worked all my life for is gone. I had my kids, DH and family alive and that is way more important than a dry run.

I'm a teacher in one of the districts that was located in the evacuation area in Southeast Texas. When we dismissed classes Tuesday afternoon, we were told to report for duty the next morning. Classes had not been cancelled. So, I did what I could do to prepare when I got home. Got a call about 8pm that classes were cancelled, but teachers had to report in and prepare our classrooms. We were free to go at 12:30. It was crazy, but we all reported in as told. By the time we could leave school, it was too late to beat the rush of evacuees. One of my family members had to work a full day. We finally got to leave early Thursday morning. The traffic was at a standstill, literally. On Hwy 146 between Baytown and Dayton, people were playing football in the middle of the road. Cars were off. It was bumper to bumper. We turned around and went toward Beaumont up a back way, but even there it was the same, except we weren't stopped, but basically crawling.

So, not everyone can leave extra early. Our plans have changed this go round. We'll be staying here instead in our church structure that is built to withstand extremely high winds. (it's a dome structure and not in a flood plain far enough inland away from a tidal surge). I wish school districts, refineries, businesses, etc would just shut down earlier than during Rita. But I don't make the rules.

[Jagno]

Whiteshirt; I do agree that employers did not react quickly enough to get their people out of harms way safely. As mentioned earlier, I hope they learned from the experience. If not, I think I would have to utilize some of my "sick time". I was blessed in that I own my own business and closed it down early just so we could all get out safely and quickly. Of course, unlike coporate businesses I love my life and that of my family alot more than money so I have no qualms of closing early during severe weather . I left my DH and 2 oldest sons behind because their jobs would not allow them to leave during the storm as they were all in emergency operations. That is the worst feeling in the world to leave most of your family behind to get the rest out safely.