Area north of Bahamas

[cycloneye]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters.html

The floater page has floater 1 labeled as invest and focused on the area in the Bahamas.



Will NRL Navy site follow?

[skysummit]

If so, it's gonna have tons of shear to deal with.

[cycloneye]

So far no TCPOD or recon,no runs from tropical models and nothing at NRL navy site.Maybe it's only a test at the floater site.Let's see later today if there is any change and all the signs that I said before appear.

[boca]

Maybe the low the GFS has been forecasting will develop in the Bahamas instead.Melbourne NWS makes mention of it forming North of Bahamas and traveling up the Eastern seaboard to Southern New England.
MULTIPLE SHORT
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE RESOLVED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SFC
LOW N OF THE BAHAMA BANK BY 12Z FRI THAT PULLS UP THE ERN SEABOARD
INTO THE NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS.

[jpwxman]

Quikscat and SFC plots show no hint of a circulation there, just a wave over the western Bahamas heading towards southern Florida.

[Trader Ron]

Lets hope it moves over Florida.

[Thunder44]

There no hints anything developing on the surface there, but the convection has increased this morning and most of the models are more focused on low pressure to form there instead of the Carribean.

There are no signs of a low forming in the Carribean as still being forecast by the GFS today. The surface trof in the Carribean is weakening and moving west over Central America and convection has diminished that region.

As for this storm developing in the Bahamas, being subtropical or tropical, that appears unlikely. The low will start out as extratropical and won't spend enough time in the warmer waters off the SE coast to make the transition. SSD is responsible for those images on the NHC site and so they labeled "INVEST" for some reason.

[Typhoon_Willie]

There may be a small hint of rotation just NNE of Andros Island.

Miami long range base reflectivity radar.

[JonathanBelles]

I saw this on the models the other day. I dont think it will move ocer the state. It is supposed to bring in winds and the smoke It is supposed to move out with the front.

[Thunder44]

There may be a small hint of rotation just NNE of Andros Island.

Miami long range base reflectivity radar.

Looks like a MLC. Surface pressures are high and not falling yet.

[cycloneye]

I am on-line again and I see that nothing new has occured in terms of this being an invest.They had this morning labeled floater 1 as invest,however that word is not there now.

[Meso]

As for the development of this,the 12z GFS is only forecasting the low to develop in around 18 hours,so we shall see

[HURAKAN]

Very active May in terms of disturbances and model activity.

[HURAKAN]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... p_troplant

NOGAPS develops an area of low pressure in the Bahamas over the next 24 to 36 hrs and then the low moves very fast to the north.

[Berwick Bay]

Very active May in terms of disturbances and model activity.

Excellent observation Hurakan! I think this portends an active early season June-July. Now the main part of the season Aug-Oct may well be different (sometimes it does seem as though there are actually two seasons---June-Julyand Aug-Sept). But in this case I think the whole season will be fairly active, with once again the emphasis being on tropical formation in the Lower Bahamas ( a little south of this disturbed area) and in the area of the Leeward Islands in Aug, Sept, and Oct.

[skysummit]

Very active May in terms of disturbances and model activity.

Boy, you can say that again! Can you imagine what these models will look like in July/August?!?!?

[drezee]

There is no doubt about this one going. It will be baroclinic in nature, but it will pop.

[KatDaddy]

Its way to early for this much hype. If we see the area near the Bahama's become subtropical storm Barry as Jeff Master's indicates the media go into a frenzy.....AND if a tropical system tries to form in the Caribbean. It will be an insane media frenzy which will scare millions of people leading to massive outta control evacs within any area threatened by a major cane this season.

[HURAKAN]

If we get something out of this, first, there is not going to be massive evacuations, or any at all, because it will be weak. Second, if people go crazy is because they want to, or they allow it to happen, because there is nothing to go crazy about here. Some seasons start late, aka 2004, some seasons start early, aka 1997.

I really don't see anything crazy here. It's just fascinating to be talking and dealing with so many areas of development so early in the season. Nevertheless, none of these area are or were expected to develop into damaging storms.

[Jagno]

If we get something out of this, first, there is not going to be massive evacuations, or any at all, because it will be weak. Second, if people go crazy is because they want to, or they allow it to happen, because there is nothing to go crazy about here. Some seasons start late, aka 2004, some seasons start early, aka 1997.

I really don't see anything crazy here. It's just fascinating to be talking and dealing with so many areas of development so early in the season. Nevertheless, none of these area are or were expected to develop into damaging storms.

I totally agree. It's hard enough getting folks to evacuate with a CAT 3 bearing down so getting them to even buy extra batteries for a CAT 1 will be a feat in and of itself.