Today's steering setup vs. Aug 29, 2005 (Katrina)

[GeneratorPower]

I have been looking at the position of the high pressure cell over the Southeastern US as compared with late August, 2005. What I have noticed is that a persistent high pressure area is over FL and the SE states. Countless discussions have mentioned hurricanes travelling around the periphery of a ridge (high pressure area).

Note the same look from today's setup vs. pre-Katrina

[b]August 27, 2005

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap ... 50827.html

[b]August 28, 2005 - Notice our friend Mr. High Pressure...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap ... 50828.html

[b]August 29, 2005 - Notice our friend Mr. High Pressure once again and where Katrina is headed...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap ... 50829.html


[b]May 15, 2007 - Mr. High is back and presumably, the steering currents would be the same, eh?...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap ... 70515.html



Comments welcome.


EDIT: The links were supposed to be inline pics but I'm kinda glad they aren't.

EDIT: Had to change the date to May 15th.

[GeneratorPower]

If someone can tell me why the images aren't showing up, I'm game.

['CaneFreak]

poster needs to enable bb code in order for these links to work

[GeneratorPower]

BBCode is turned on and functioning.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Based on what I have seen lately, I think there is a good chance the steering currents this year could be very similar to 2005. However, as always, we will not know for sure until later July and August.

[Sjones]

Wow! Looks the exact same way. Bet this year will be just like, if not worse than 2005 season.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Wow! Looks the exact same way. Bet this year will be just like, if not worse than 2005 season.

Whoa buddy slow down there! Just becuase we see a high in the exact same place like it was in 2005 doesn't mean we're going to have a season WORSE than 2005. That would b a miracle.

[canegrl04]

Wow! Looks the exact same way. Bet this year will be just like, if not worse than 2005 season.

Whoa buddy slow down there! Just becuase we see a high in the exact same place like it was in 2005 doesn't mean we're going to have a season WORSE than 2005. That would b a miracle.

2005 is going to stand alone for a long time for the number of storms produced That being said,it appears the steering pattern as it is now,indicates the path of the storms will be the same: into the GOM

[LSU2001]

I agree that 2005 will probably stand for quite some time as the record year for number of canes but please remember all of the storms that did track into the gulf. Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita and wilma were majors and Cindy was a cane on reanalysis
so 5 majors and one weak cane in the gulf If we have another year where that many majors enter the gulf its going to be a very very rough year for somebody. I know that I have probably left out some storms but those are just those I remember
Tim

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... index.html

[skysummit]

Can you say $17/gallon gas? hehehe

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

People, relax! You can't look at a select image from a snapshot in time, in August none the less, and compare it to today, in May to try to dictate the way the whole season is goign to play out!

We have a few weeks before we have any good shots at any strong activity, and months until the real heart of the season. If anything, the current set up may say the exact opposite - since weather always changes - what is the liklihood that the synoptic set up will remain the same for the next 4 months? hmmmm? Pretty unlikely.

It will change, every few weeks, as the high floats around and repositions itself over the season. If the timing is correct, we could see another storm take Katrina's path. But a prognosis this early in the season is that a storm could just as easily recurve out to sea.

Everything is a guess right now. We can "genreally say" that we expect more recurves or landfalls, but to point to a certain area being hit this year based on a May week 3 picture and a similar August picture from a few years ago is just plain silly.

So... I wonder what the picture looked like on May 22, 2005?

[hial2]

Can you say $17/gallon gas? hehehe

Of course you're kidding, but.... if a cyclone of any rank goes in the Gulf, $4.50/gal will be a reality..hey,feel lucky. In Europe, it's $6.00+ (equivalent)..Where did I store my bicycle??????

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Here it is... May 21, 2005:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap ... 50522.html

And yesterday:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap ... 70521.html

Very different. So I guess by that, it means that we won't have anything like the 2005 hurricane season, and nothing will enter the GOM. (see how that reasoning is so unreasonable?)

[hial2]

[quote="TreasureIslandFLGal"
So... I wonder what the picture looked like on May 22, 2005?[/quote]



http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap ... 50522.html


There you go...5/22/05

You decide.

[HurricaneHunter914]

That high isn't going to stay there forever. You can't base the whole season on one high that's eventuallt going to move.

[GeneratorPower]

That high isn't going to stay there forever. You can't base the whole season on one high that's eventuallt going to move.

Forever? No. But it has been VERY consistently there. Not every day, but consistent. Prove that wrong.

[skysummit]

Can you say $17/gallon gas? hehehe

Of course you're kidding, but.... if a cyclone of any rank goes in the Gulf, $4.50/gal will be a reality..hey,feel lucky. In Europe, it's $6.00+ (equivalent)..Where did I store my bicycle??????

I really do believe we'll see over $4 a gallon in the next 3 months or so. Here, supreme gas is up to $3.54 a gallon. I know it's probably a little higher in Florida.

[Grease Monkey]

I don't know about the majority of you, but I think making the statement that a year like 2005 won't happen for a very long time is a careless statement as well as saying that this year will be just like 2005. We may know a lot about climatology, but there's still so much more we need to learn that we still have great uncertainty with. As far as I'm concerned, I'll be ready for anything and hopefully won't act so suprised when faced with the so called least expected.

[MississippiHurricane]

Ok heres my take on the season. 2005 will be used a lot for a while. Weather is always changing and thats why it makes stuff interesting. Even though the current setup may show an active season like 2005, it doesnt mean anything in the long run really. Stuff WILL change, thats a given. All we can do it take things days at a time. I think last year is a good example. No one thought that el nino would pop up and look what happened. All im really saying is just slow down a bit. While it is good to be alert there is no need to panic. When it really comes down to it, the most we can do is prepair and hope for the best. But it is fun to try and forecast!

[weatherrabbit_tx]

just hope that pattern doesnt set up or more the west b/c then the texas coast will have to watch for the big one and believe me I have the same feelings that I had in 2005 and 2003, rita and claudette repectively, I'd say from matagorda bay up the coast this year, hope my gut is wrong!