Noaa 2007 Hurricane Season May Forecast=13-17 named storms

[Ed1]

This morning at 11:00 am EDT
IPR "Internet Partnership Radio" http://www.ipr365.com

will be streaming the Noaa Press Conference
to announce NOAA's 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

The audio archive of this morning's press conference can be found at
http://www.podweather.com/index.php?id=2047

[cycloneye]

Let's see what they forecast,but I suspect that they will have May's forecast as an active one.I am on the Winnamp stream.

[cycloneye]

NOAA PREDICTS ABOVE NORMAL 2007 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON
13 to 17 Named Storms Predicted
Experts at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center are projecting a 75 percent chance that the Atlantic Hurricane Season will be above normal this year—showing the ongoing active hurricane era remains strong. With the start of the hurricane season upon us, NOAA recommends those in hurricane-prone regions to begin their preparation plans. "For the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, NOAA scientists predict 13 to 17 named storms, with seven to 10 becoming hurricanes, of which three to five could become major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher," said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. An average Atlantic hurricane season brings 11 named storms, with six becoming hurricanes, including two major hurricanes.

Above is a press release that just came out.More details shortly.

Link to the details of the forecast below.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2007/s2864.htm

['CaneFreak]

I want to listen, but links at IPR dont work

[Chacor]

I want to listen, but links at IPR dont work

I'm getting Ellen DeGeneres as a standby programme

Announcer just said five minutes.

[cycloneye]

Press Conference starting in minutes.But if any of you can't wait,I posted the information of their forecast at my post.

[Chacor]

For those interested, EPAC forecast is here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/E ... icane.html

[cycloneye]

Press conference is now starting.

[StormWarning1]

Here is a link to the technical discussion.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/o ... cane.shtml

[HURAKAN]

No surprise here. I was expecting something similar to Dr. Gray's forecast to come out from the NHC.

2006:

2005:

Not much change in forecasts, very different seasons.

[Stormcenter]

Well all that matters is how many "actually" make landfall as a major hurricane.

[Nimbus]

Strongest factor was prediction of La Nina by August.

It will be interesting to see the new model they talked about in action.

[cycloneye]

Good to hear the NOAA chief is mending fences with NHC Director Bill Proenza.

[Evil Jeremy]

I dont like this forecast that much. Too uncertain for my taste.

[Ed1]

The Audio Archive of the NOAA Press Conference is now posted
at PodWeather at the below link.

http://www.podweather.com/index.php?id=2047

[P.K.]

I dont like this forecast that much. Too uncertain for my taste.

In the way they include forecast errors based on previous forecasts? Nothing wrong with it, TSR do it as well, it gives a useful indication as to the level of skill in their past forecasts.

[cycloneye]

For those interested, EPAC forecast is here: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/E ... icane.html

It is known that as the EPAC is less active,the Atlantic Basin is more active and in 2007 is no exception.

[Evil Jeremy]

I dont like this forecast that much. Too uncertain for my taste.

In the way they include forecast errors based on previous forecasts? Nothing wrong with it, TSR do it as well, it gives a useful indication as to the level of skill in their past forecasts.

I know, but normally their forecasts have a 3-4 error range for total storms, but i have never seen one this big from them recently.

[loro-rojo]

I know, but normally their forecasts have a 3-4 error range for total storms, but i have never seen one this big from them recently

NOAA is predicting 13-17 named storms. That falls withint the 3-4 storm range...

Anyways, unlike last year, this year is going to be a very active hurricane season. Unlike last year, the predicitons for storms have not decreased, and have even increased as time passes. Also, more and more of the 'signs' of an active formation are present.

[cycloneye]

Regardless of the numbers,it only takes one to do all the damage and ruin your life for a period of time,so dont focus too much on the numbers as where they will go is the most important thing.