Invest 90E,Sat Pics,Analysis and Models

[tailgater]

Sat pics of this area show some turning, with weak T-storms refiring near what I think will be the center. It should move WNW into warmer waters and seperate itself from the ITCZ. It at least Bears watching.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/186.jpg
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/179.jpg

[gtalum]

...Bears watching.

Like these bears?

[MGC]

Noticed this feature this morning. Might be EPAC first system.......MGC

[cycloneye]

Floater 1 of the Eastern Pacific is focused in that area.Will Alvin form here?

[cycloneye]

I just noticed that Floater 2 for the Eastern Pacific is focused on another area of disturbed weather located further west from the other area that is closer to CentralAmerica.Will Alvin form here?

[AnnularCane]

Will the real Alvin please stand up?

[SouthFloridawx]

Well perhaps GFS was on about some development in the EPAC....

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=94727

[SouthFloridawx]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAY 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS IS ALONG THE LINE...11N86W
11N89W 10N98W 12N108W 9N122W 7N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 98W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 105W AND 108W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 125W
AND 128W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 11N89W IS SUPPORTING FLARE
UP OF CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 90W.
MORNING QUIKSCAT IMAGERY SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH S TO SW CROSS
EQUATORIAL FLOW S OF THIS FEATURE AND S OF THE ITCZ ACCOMPANIED
BY MODERATE SLY SWELL.







CMC
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/cmc ... 00/61.html
GFS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs ... 12/75.html
NOGAPS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp ... 00/38.html
UKMET
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm ... 2/109.html

Windshear
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 10shr.html

Upper Level Divergence
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 10dvg.html

Low Level Convergence
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 0conv.html

GFS showing that wind shear shouldn't be too much of a factor
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[Nimbus]

The cloud curl near 88 W just south of 10 N looks interesting. Historically storms in this area take a while to develop as they slowly drift WNW.

[Cyclenall]

These aren't labeled invests yet countless other invests from other basins worldwide look like a few clouds without convection (aka should not be invests). There is something wrong here.

I believe one of these will have a shot of becoming the first tropical cyclone of the 2007 eastern Pacific hurricane season. On the NHC website, each of the floaters have "invest" as the sub-header.

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 242245
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT THU MAY 24 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A NEARLY-STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT
550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


This is for the area farther away from CentralAmerica.

[SouthFloridawx]

Here is the Ramsdis floater.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... oat_0.html

[Nimbus]

Nice burst of convection blowing up on the south side of the circulation in frame 224. TD tomorrow?

[cycloneye]

If I say,we have invest 90E? Guess what,it has poped up at NRL.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

tailgater,edited title of thread.

[Chacor]

Looks good.

[cycloneye]

25/0000 UTC 12.1N 108.3W T1.0/1.0 90E -- East Pacific Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[KatDaddy]

Not looking to bad with some weak banding. Would not be surprised to see the first EPAC TD or Alvin.

[ncupsscweather]

Yes, there is a good chance that this is going to be the first storm of the EPAC.

[Dr. Jonah Rainwater]

Very likely going to be Alvin here in a few days. What is this, 9 years now with an Epac system forming in May?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/epac/avn-l.jpg

This is a Itcz distrabance, so only slow development should be expected.