Florida long overdue for big storms...

[windstorm99]

Jacksonville: 127 years. Tampa: 86 years. Sarasota: 63 years. Fort Lauderdale: 57 years. Miami: 15 years.
That's how long it has been since those major metropolitan areas of Florida -- the state most vulnerable to hurricanes -- have been hit by a Category 3 or higher storm.

It cannot last. All are historically overdue for an assault by a major hurricane, with sustained winds above 110 mph and even stronger gusts.

''It's just a matter of time,'' said Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center in West Miami-Dade. ``Whether it's 10 years, 20 years, 50 years or tomorrow, we just don't know.''

The six-month hurricane season begins Friday, but the next deadly hurricane catastrophe is developing right now, forecasters and emergency managers say. And Florida is most at risk.

Enormous numbers of people who have never experienced the colossal, life-threatening power of hurricanes are flocking to coastal cities around the state. More than 17 million Floridians live along the coast.

''Katrina showed us that a large loss of life is still possible in a hurricane,'' Blake said of the 2005 storm that slapped South Florida, then strengthened and wrecked New Orleans and much of the upper Gulf Coast.

''Floridians certainly are not invulnerable,'' he said. ``If people don't heed evacuation orders, there could be a significant loss of life in this state.''

Forty percent of all U.S. hurricanes hit Florida, according to records at the hurricane center. All five of the costliest hurricanes in history hit Florida, in some cases along with other states. Five of the 10 most intense U.S. hurricanes hit Florida.

And even with all of that, most Florida cities -- with ever-rising populations -- are long overdue for a strike by a major Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane.

Since reliable record-keeping began in 1851, a major hurricane has blasted or approached Miami-Dade County an average of once every nine years, Broward County once every 10 years, Tampa once every 23 years, the Sarasota-Bradenton area once every 19 years and the Jacksonville area once every 28 years.

But Miami-Dade hasn't been pummeled by a major hurricane since Andrew ravaged the southern part of the county in 1992, Broward has avoided that horror since 1950, Tampa since 1921, the Sarasota-Bradenton area since 1944, and Jacksonville since 1880.

GEOGRAPHY TO BLAME

One day, each one of those cities will run out of luck, experts said. The state's geography offers no other possibility.

Florida dangles into the hurricane zone like a giant kick-me sign, and its 1,200 miles of coast produce an inviting target for storm surge, the dome of water that accompanies a hurricane's core ashore and poses the greatest threat to life.

Sooner or later, Blake said, every city -- every spot -- along Florida's coast will get hit by a major hurricane. ''It's inevitable,'' he said.

Blake is the lead author of a recently updated study that examines the nation's history of hurricanes and its current vulnerability. It found that the danger stretches across the entire Gulf and East coasts, from Brownsville, Texas, to the northeastern tip of Maine.

Millions of people have moved to those coasts in the last 50 years, and 85 percent of current coastal residents have never experienced a major hurricane, according to several studies.

''It's quite a demographic challenge,'' said Bill Proenza, the veteran National Weather Service forecaster and manager who replaced Max Mayfield in January as hurricane center director.

Here are some other sobering -- even frightening -- findings of the report co-authored by Blake:

• The two deadliest hurricanes struck Galveston, Texas, in 1900 and the Palm Beach-Lake Okeechobee area in 1928, but even now -- after decades of forecast and communications improvements -- massive loss of life can occur.

Just two years ago, Katrina killed more than 1,500 people, mostly in Louisiana and Mississippi.

''It shows we still have a lot of work to do when it comes to educating people about the danger of storm surge, which is still the No. 1 way of people losing their lives in a hurricane,'' Blake said.

The two areas in Florida that most concern him are the densely populated, low-lying Tampa Bay region and the thin, delicate chain of Florida Keys.

''In the Keys, there's just no place to go,'' he said.

• Katrina ranks as the costliest natural disaster in U.S. history, inflicting $81 billion of damage. Most of that occured in New Orleans and elsewhere along the upper Gulf Coast, but some occured in South Florida -- Katrina's first point of attack.

FLIP SIDE OF GROWTH

The record 2004 and 2005 seasons produced seven of the nine costliest hurricanes, demonstrating the consequences of frenzied coastal development. Simply stated, hurricanes now have more things to destroy.

Exhibit A: When Andrew struck Miami-Dade and other areas, including Broward, it caused $26.5 billion in damage. If the same storm struck the same places now, just 15 years later, it would produce $58.5 billion in damage -- due to population growth, inflation and new development.

Exhibit B: If the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926, a Category 4 storm that directly struck Miami Beach and downtown Miami and swamped Hollywood and Fort Lauderdale, was repeated today, it would cause $164 billion in damage, twice that of Katrina.

Exhibit C: In October 2005, Hurricane Wilma generated only Category 1 and 2 winds in Broward and Miami-Dade, and it still managed to inflict $20.6 billion in damage and become the third costliest hurricane in U.S. history.

• During the last 40 years, the average hurricane season has produced 11 tropical storms that grew into six hurricanes, two of them major. This season, experts predict 13 to 17 named storms that will become seven to 10 hurricanes, three to five of them major.

Since record-keeping began, an average of nearly two hurricanes have hit the U.S. coast every year and one major hurricane has struck the coast every other year. And they really like Florida.

Of the 279 hurricanes that reached the U.S. mainland since 1851, 113 hit Florida. Worse, 37 of the 96 major hurricanes walloped the state. No other state comes close to either mark.

The statistics that show many areas in Florida are on borrowed time, called ''return periods,'' which should be treated with caution because they are long-term averages and reflect not much more than good (or bad) luck.

They do reveal, however, how long some cities have gone without experiencing a hurricane, as development thrived, populations mushroomed and complacency might have set in.

Tampa, for instance, has not been hit by any hurricane since 1946 or by a major storm since 1921.

The long-term averages suggest that a hurricane should strike it or come within 86 miles every six years -- and a major storm every 23 years.

But South Floridians shouldn't point fingers at other areas:

Miami is statistically six years overdue for a Category 3, 4 or 5 storm. Fort Lauderdale? Overdue by 47 years

[x-y-no]

The "overdue" formulation really bugs me. It's quite simply wrong in this case.

There are real-world phenomena where the word is appropriate. For instance if an area over an active fault hasn't had an earthquake in a longer than average time, then the probability of a major quake rises because pressure builds up over time in the fault until an earthquake relieves that pressure.

But the atmosphere has no such memory.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't really think FL is overdue at all. 2004, 2005 and 2006 were all very active years with one Cat. 4 landfall, four Cat. 3 landfalls, one Cat. 2 landfall and 3 tropical storm landfalls, as well as many outer effects from other storms (such as Rita). To me, that knocks out any "overdue" arguement. Sure, some places have not been hit as hard as others, but overall I think the state as a whole has had a fair deal of activity to deal with lately.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I wouldn't say overdue because we have been slammed since 2004,
but I do agree that if a major city gets hit by a major hurricane the
consequences would be catastrophic.

[JonathanBelles]

Very good read. It was very interesting. I do believe many of the major cities in florida are overdue. I did not know that Jacksonville was overdue by 127 years!! This must have taken a while to compile.

EWG: Most large cities except miami were missed in 04, 05, 06 but Miami did not suffer from a cat 3+ in any of those years.

[Opal storm]

The title of this article is very misleading, I mean considering most of the state has been hammered by several big storms since 2004.

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is the link to the article.

http://www.miamiherald.com/457/story/119417.html

[JonathanBelles]

I thought windstorm99 wrote it...

[SouthFloridawx]

Well... I think there is some truth to this article. There are millions of people living on the coast here in Florida, that have never experienced a major hurricane. Complacency runs rampant here in Florida, and I would imagine throughout the coastal areas, of everywhere except a good portion of the Gulf Coast.

People just aren't concerned about preparation... That's not speaking about the people who do, but it is fairly evident after storms here in Florida, which have only been Tropical Storm force to Cat 1 and 2, with the exception of Charley... That was even a small storm and didn't show the total potential of a SW hit could do to the coast line.

Either way, I think the large loss of life is going to be inevitable and the damage it will do to the economy here will be tremendous.

Tree's are very tall here in the Tampa Bay area, but when you go to the SE coast of Florida you notice that they are all pretty much shorter and the same height. The trees here in Pinellas County are the large canopy trees that are great for catching high winds and blowing down onto the ground, giving lots of the debris for the wind to pick up. That's not even talking about the huge surge potential here either, I think that's another story. I never understood the whole Tampa Bay threat until I moved here. The potential really is bad.

[StormWarning1]

The sampling period -1851 to 2007- is to short to come to any conclusions about how often a hurricane is going to hit a specific point along the U.S. coastline. Also, as the Atlantic basin sea temperatures warm. as they have over the last 160 years, this may change the steering patterns. Look how often the section of coastline that makes up Georgia and South Carolina was hit by major hurricanes in the 1800's and how few have hit since 1901.

[Nimbus]

Hurricane Charley in 2004 woke most people up in the Tampa bay area. If it had recurved just a little later it would have come into Tampa bay as a cat 5 the way it was bombing out.

We are forecast to have an active hurricane year and that provides the increase in risk. In any given year south Florida is at least twice as likely as any other specific area along the gulf coast to get hit with a major hurricane. Hurricane Andrew was their wakeup call and they made a lot of construction code and preparedness improvements in response. I don't think anyone in Florida is lulled into a sense of invulnerability to major hurricanes.

[windstorm99]

Miami has indeed been very lucky since andrew back in 92 with a brush from wilma which saw winds of cat1 intensity to maybe gust to cat2 were experienced in miami dade and broward couties and katrina.


As far as season predictions in my opinion numbers forcasted really are not important cause its the ones that actually make landfall that have the greatest impact.It only takes one to ruin lives.

[ronjon]

If you look at the 1940s the FL peninsula was walloped by many storms - since the more recent warm AMO of 1995, we have escaped the significant activity until 2004 and 2005 - due largely to storms recurving out in the Atlantic. Without sounding like the utlimate doomsday prophet, the state's major metro areas like Miami-Ft L, the Keys, and the Tampa Bay area are all long overdue for a catastrophic storm on the scale of Katrina. When it happens, look for a vast migration out of FL and the states economy to take a hit as people finally realize that places like South Carolina and Tennessee are much safer places to live.

[vacanechaser]

As far as season predictions in my opinion numbers forcasted really are not important cause its the ones that actually make landfall that have the greatest impact.It only takes one to ruin lives.

you are right.. but i get tired of heaing the numbers dont matter it only takes one thing... the numbers do matter... if it is expected to be a busy season, the numbers being forecast are high, then the chance increases for 1 or more to possibly hit the u.s. .. this is not a shot at you by any means... it just gets played out too much in my opinion... i know it can happen in slower years too, but with the high numbers being forecast, if it verifies or looks to be as busy as said, then that really ramps up the chances, for a lot of people.. just my thoughts...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Jinkers]

Interesting read, I've lived in South East Florida all my life, experienced Andrew first hand, hope never to see another one like it. It amazes me that a lot of people I know haven't even prepared for this season, I've got all my supplies already.

[Robjohn53]

I have read all the post in this thread, I to agree that the numbers are important. High numbers such as this years,
are a fairly good sign to be more prpaired for the season. Like written in another post, alot of people still today do not
take it seriouly as it should be taken. Maybe 2004, 2005 & 2006 may have woke alot of people up but there still are alot
that it has'nt. So i to think the numbers are very important.


Robjohn53

[WeatherWiseGuy]

Interesting read, I've lived in South East Florida all my life, experienced Andrew first hand, hope never to see another one like it. It amazes me that a lot of people I know haven't even prepared for this season, I've got all my supplies already.

You would think that after the season of 2004 people in Florida would automatically prepare each year. However, in the same vein as "What have you done for me lately" we quickly forget. My fear is that the worst thing that could have happened during this active cycle is last year's season (and it's associated pre-season forecasts). It has caused many to relax and go back to their dangerously unthinking ways.

[jinftl]

Compared to just 5 years ago, I really have experienced a greater awareness when it comes to hurricanes in South Florida. Ask most people down here, and they really do know that the hurricane season starts June 1. The company I work for has just sent out it's hurricane season check-list....getting all employee contact info and setting up a detailed work plan in case of hurricane warnings.....neighbors are trimming large tree branches that could easily fall in high wind, etc.

I really do get a sense that South Florida is much more hurricane savvy after the last few seasons.....and this awareness can only protect property and save lives.

[Downdraft]

It's amazing that some annual topics appear as regularly as storm2ker's returning June 1st. The fact of the matter is no area is any more "due" than any other. It is an invalid argument to say we haven't been hit in 20, 30 or 40 years by a major storm so we are overdue. Hurricane landfalls are simply not governed by the rules of chance. One area may be at higher risk than another in any given year but the odds of a particular spot getting struck do not continue to increase year to year. You can say using the analogy of another poster that it is with mathematical certitude Los Angeles or San Francisco will be struck by another major earthquake someday. And, yes, the odds of it happening increase from year to year because as the plates move the energy is stored per se, for later release somewhere. On the other hand it is probable that a hurricane will make landfall given that certain conditions external to the hurricane occur to influence its direction. The date, time and place of that event cannot be calculated based upon the the last time it happened. New Orleans could have another Katrina scale event this year or not in 100 years we just can't say until first we have a storm and second we can reliably predict the overall synoptic setup. Will the time ever come for Tampa, Miami, New York or Boston? Of course it will but it isn't more likely to happen this year than it was last year or will be 10 years from now.