Hurricane Alley

[bayway]

In the past 40 years... There has been a 120 mile strech of the US coast that has
by far taken more big direct hits than any other. 5 majors and a cat 2. It's not Florida.
This 120 mile strech is actualy on par with the entire Fla coast (well over 500 miles).
It's the Mississippi Alabama coast. Waveland to Orange Beach.
I may be mistaken, but I belive there is no 120 mile strech anywhere else in the Con.
US that has seen a landfall count like this in the past 100 years. And this all happened
in 40. Yikes.
I would venture to guess that a vast majority of the genral public would guess
SE Fla... and thier last guess would be MS-AL coast.

[Berwick Bay]

I'm not surprised Bayway. You may know that I try to forecast very specifically. I try to be as specific as I can in regard to possible depression formation, possible tracks of already named storms, and possible landfall locations for future storms. I have forecast New Iberia, La and Pascagoula, Miss. as sites most likely to be affected by important tropical cyclones in 2007.

[bayway]

well... the data supports your theory. In a big way.
I hope you are wrong.

This 120 mile strech of beach needs climate change in a big way.

[wobblehead]

Dividing the east and gulf coast into 10 mile segments Ms is #1 in hits per segment and Al is #2. I mentioned this to Berwick Bay regarding his mention of New Iberia to GulfPort high risk landfall area. A response to our post was in part "this is based on half baked research".

[B'hamBlazer]

Dividing the east and gulf coast into 10 mile segments Ms is #1 in hits per segment and Al is #2. I mentioned this to Berwick Bay regarding his mention of New Iberia to GulfPort high risk landfall area. A response to our post was in part "this is based on half baked research".

I'd believe it... and what makes that even more remarkable is just how small the AL and MS coastlines are relative to LA, FL, TX, SC, NC, etc.

[jasons2k]

Jim's database shows the #1 spot going to Cape Hatteras:

http://www.hurricanecity.com/Rank.htm

[Stratosphere747]

Hatteras' leads the field in near misses...

[Sjones]

On hurricanecity.com , it shows Freeport, TX to expect a landfall before the end of the 2007 season We'll see how that turns out!

[hial2]

But....Florida has 25 of the top 52 spots..

[bayway]

But....Florida has 25 of the top 52 spots..

but again... the 120 mile strech between waveland and orange beach is
the true hurricane alley when it comes to major hits. the entire east and
west coast of florida has seem nothing near the big direct hits in the past
40 years that this area has suffered.

[CrazyC83]

But....Florida has 25 of the top 52 spots..

but again... the 120 mile strech between waveland and orange beach is
the true hurricane alley when it comes to major hits. the entire east and
west coast of florida has seem nothing near the big direct hits in the past
40 years that this area has suffered.

That is because of the dreaded Loop Current that can turn a Category 1 into a Category 5 overnight...Florida tends to get a lot of newly-formed weak storms as well as big ones, while not too many storms form right off the AL/MS coast.

[MGC]

Crazy is right. The super hurricane highway that the loop current is. Even if many of the cat-5 and 4's weaken before they reach the coast they still arrive as a major....MGC

[Recurve]

I know that AL-MS area gets whacked a lot but don't forget the stretch from Fort Lauderdale to Key West, 200 or so miles, and over a little longer period:

Just the majors:
1909, 1919 (Cat 4 killed 600), 1926 (Cat 4), 1928 Okeechobee (killed 2000), 1935 (Cat 5), 1947 (Cat 4), 1950 (King, 19' surge in Miami), 1960 (Donna, Cat 4), 1965 (Betsy, Cat 4), 1992 (Andrew Cat 5)-- two all-time worst landfalls in there, and 2005 Wilma (amazing backside Cat 3 hit) ...

Florida Realtors love y'all focusing on another area, though.

[bayway]

waveland to destin fl... about the same distance...
40 (not 100) years has had 8 majors. Camille to Katrina (2 all time worst landfalls) .

[Berwick Bay]

Bayway, as I replied earlier, I never doubted your premise. How can anyone argue with that last stat you put up. The one about MAJOR's. What did you say a "200 mile stretch of coast" which was hit by EIGHT MAJOR's in the last 40 years? Tough to argue with that. As you know, I have picked a city along your stretch of coast to be one of two along the entire U.S. Coast to be most likely impacted by an important tropical cyclone. That city is Pascagoula, Miss. My other top site is a less frequented spot along the Central-Western La. Coast, New Iberia, La.

[bayway]

wow... you're telling me.
I'm sitting In pascagoula today... and i can tell you... if a major hits here
again this year it will be utterly humiliating to these people.

[KWT]

Maybe majors, but the south of Florida smashes that region when it comes to total strikes of hurricanes overall:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/strikes_egulf.gif

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I would have to say that due to the loop current
Alabama and Mississippi and Louisiana are most
vulnerable to ferocious major hurricanes.


Disclaimer: I am ***not*** an expert, just an amateur.
South florida also does get a lot of hits as well,
but Ms, La, and Ala. get majored harder due to loop current


Oddly enough, the Tampa Bay has escaped a major hurricane for
86 years...which is much lower frequency than gulf coast ms, ala, la,
so miss alabama louisiana coast gets hit more frequently...

now i know south fl get lots of hits too

but again I am ***No*** expert

[Agua]

Yeah, somebody put up a "major cane per mile mile of coastline" schedule up in 2005 (pre-katrina) and it came out Alabama #1 and Mississippi #2, IIRC. However, it seems to me that it didn't utilize extrapolated gulf frontage with reduction for inlets and bays, but instead included all miles including the meanderings along such inlets and bays. But, regardless of whether its AL or MS, however you measure it, it didn't surprise me.

[bayway]

Maybe majors, but the south of Florida smashes that region when it comes to total strikes of hurricanes overall:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/strikes_egulf.gif

you need to check your numbers there hero... smashes?
Monroe Dade and Broward (200 miles) 64
Waveland to Destin (200 miles) 78

add palm beach county to cover over 250 miles and you have 79 stikes... and
that's not smashing... you let the color code fool you.