Props to Berwick Bay.. I'm listening to him from here on out

[HouTXmetro]

This guy called this sytem well in advance of it's formation. He even got the location and formation of the storm dead on.

[x-y-no]

Yep. And I admit I didn't believe it at all.

Good call, Berwick Bay.

[cycloneye]

It was what,2 weeks ago? when he began to make the call for this.Congratulations my friend.

[JonathanBelles]

To be honest I didnt believe him, I thought he was crazy. CHOMP<word lol

[Extremeweatherguy]

I actually did believe he was onto something from the beginning and it turns out he really was right. Way to go BB..you nailed it!

[Berwick Bay]

Thanks, that means a lot. But as I said in another thread, its gonna' be a long season. So much can happen. I'll do my best to post any info that I receive to you guys, but forecasts have failed. I tell you what, I'll stoke up on this love and affection now, while it lasts. Take care.

[mf_dolphin]

Looks like I may have to dig up the S2K Crow award

[T-man]

Hey, BB- what's gonna happen two weeks from now? Way to go, buddy!

[HouTXmetro]

So tell us Berwick, what factors convinced you something was going to form that far out?

[MGC]

Can you give us any stock tips? Are the Saints going to win the Super Bowl? Great call......MGC

[Berwick Bay]

So tell us Berwick, what factors convinced you something was going to form that far out?

Okay Tex, here it is. Let me list some things (not necessarily in order of importance, but here goes).

1. Andrea--shows that overall conditions for development were ahead of schedule.
2. Tropical Weather and storms near Panama--Shows that conditions in Carribean were becoming capable of supporting tropical development.
3. Three Major Air Masses(posted about this several times)
a. Subtropical Jet-It was dominant across Gulf and Carribean but looked to relax in Gulf or be pushed further south by building High Pressure from Atlantic Ridge
b. Atlantic Ridge-would push into E Gulf--Like Jet, not good for trop formation, but served to push Jet south and stabilize upper air
c. Oncoming Trough from North American Plains--Would work against High and begin to push High back E toward Fl and Atlantic
d. A "hole" or niche which I foresaw might develop between these three upper air masses. As the trough pushed the High in the Gulf back east, storms began firing in the Gulf leading to instability. But the key area would be in the southern Gulf just north of the "old Jet Stream Boundary". I saw this area as a possible hole or spot between all three systems which could be filled by low pressure.
4. Experience--I looked for a place, that would not be too far removed from our earlier May storm "Andrea". I though formation of the weather down around Panama was just a little too far south and "off the beaten path" for a May system. Tend to look closer to the Gulf or off Fl for May.
5. A Sixth Sense---Which I think that many of us have but don't fully recognize or put to use.

Thats about it.

[vbhoutex]

Marshall, you beat me to it. I do however, have a whole slew of crow cooking on the grill out back!!!! Looks to me like there is going to be a feast of crow tonight and I will be one of them joining in. GREAT CALL Berwick Bay!!!! Your reasoning from the start made sense, but I was very skeptical I must admit.

[mempho]

This guy called this sytem well in advance of it's formation. He even got the location and formation of the storm dead on.

I've been following Berwick's forecasts since 2004. He may be new here but he's not new to the game and everyone here should listen to him. He's not right 100% of the time (and who is), but his 3-10 day forecasting has been the best I've ever seen.

Congrats on another good call, Berwick. I have to admit, I thought you were just fishing this time.

[hawkeh]

I never thought his prediction would happen but sure enough it did. I'll be looking forward to your forecasts now. Lots of pressure on you now

[sfwx]

In case you missed it......http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/v ... t=#1547227

Great job. What a way to start the season.

Eric

[Sjones]

Yes indeed! Great job BB!!! Very accurate!! Any predictions or any senses that any tropical development will be heading this way to Texas?

[canegrl04]

Berwick Bay should be promoted to an official board MET

[Rainband]

I am impressed.

[mf_dolphin]

http://www.storm2k.org/uploaded_images/crow.png




Here it is for those that need it

[canetracker]

WaytogoBerwickBay!!!!