EJ's Barry Forecasts (unofficial)

[Evil Jeremy]

EJ’s Forecasts
Barry
#1

Second storm of the season forms on the first day of the season

Earlier today, Hurricane Hunters were sent into Invest 92L to investigate if a tropical cyclone was forming. They found a Tropical Storm with 45 MPH winds and a pressure of 1000 MB.

I believe the storm to be stronger, roughly by 5 through 10 MPH. I do not expect much more intensification before Barry makes it’s landfall on the Florida coast, but even a smaller increase of strength could prompt the NHC to issue a Hurricane Watch, although I find this unlikely.

Tropical Storm Barry is currently heading North near 10 MPH, possibly a little faster. I expect a turn more to the East than the NHC forecasts, and I believe that a turn to the NNE or NE will happen within the next 24 hours.

Even though Barry will make a landfall somewhere along the NW coast of Florida, generally north of the Tampa Bay area, the worst effects will be felt along Southern and Central Florida, due to the fact that the rain and winds are mostly to the north and east of the storm’s center. This is good news for Florida, as the rain is needed.

Unfortunally, I can not generate a forecast cone of my own at the time, but I will do so later tonight.

INITIAL 50 MPH
12HR VT 55 MPH
24HR VT 50 MPH (North of the Tampa Bay Area)
36HR VT 40 MPH (Inland Florida)

[Evil Jeremy]

ok, this is my cone and prediction for tonight, in the form of a picture.

[Sjones]

Think there's any chance of it moving back in the Atlantic and re-circulating and re-developing?

[Evil Jeremy]

there is a very small chance of that happening in my opinion.
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EJ’s Forecasts
Barry
#3

Barry speeding up as it heads towards the Florida coast

Overnight, the overall presentation of Barry has been horrible. It is hard to find the center, so I will be using the NHC’s location, for now, which is at 27.1N and 83.5W.

Despite the bad presentation of Barry, however, the winds have remained the same, at 50 MPH, with a pressure of 998 MB. This strength is not expected to change until Barry makes its landfall. After landfall occurs, I expect that Barry will weaken at a fast rate until is moves back into the Atlantic Ocean.

Barry is currently headed to the NNE at around 23 MPH. This general direction, with a possible turn to the NE, and speed are expected to continue as Barry heads up the East Coast of the USA. The disorganized storm should be back in open waters near the coastline by midnight, if not earlier.

Barry has a lot of rain associated with it, and it battered parts of Southern and Central Florida yesterday, and Northern Florida will be battered today. Yesterday, parts of Central and Southern Florida were flooded with rain reaching 5 inches or higher. Tampa already has collected over 3 inches of rain, and Jacksonville has collected about 1 inch so far. Heavy rains will continue throughout today bringing floods to parts of Florida.

Tornados will be possible across the state today, with tornados being most likely in Northern Florida.

It is hard to pinpoint where exactly the disorganized storm will make landfall and where it will move after Florida. I believe that landfall will occur around 100 Miles North of Tampa, and it should move North of Orlando and into Jacksonville before leaving Florida tonight. After that, I think that Barry will move along the eastern seaboard while becoming Extratropical.


INITIAL 50 MPH
12HR VT 40 MPH
24HR VT 40 MPH
36HR VT 35 MPH EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 35 MPH EXTRATROPICAL