So what is our next area to watch?

[Noah]

I like watching and tracking as long as nothing dangersous is coming!

[x-y-no]

Looks pretty quiet in the atlantic for at least the next week to 10 days at least ...

[Extremeweatherguy]

If Barbara's moisture doesn't move into the BOC, then the next area to watch is really anyone's guess. As we saw with Barry, a relatively quiet area can become quite active quickly..so I guess we will see what happens. Based on Climatology, the chances of another June storms are slim, but if something else were to form it would likely be in the NW Caribbean or GOM.

[AnnularCane]

I keep thinking the next storm won't form until July, but I wouldn't be all that surprised to see another June storm.

[NDG]

We might be focusing once again in western Caribbean in a week or two if wind shear continues to be this low:

[dixiebreeze]

Nothing imminent of course, but Africa continues to be active:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/rb-l.jpg

[windstorm99]

Looks like quite a large area of convection over africa but development out here is very unlikely for the next couple of weeks so no worries.

[HurricaneHunter914]

It would be interesting if Barbara was to make it into the BOC without getting shredded. Then we would have something to watch. That's one giant blob over Africa though. Imagine that being in the Caribbean. The boards would go crazy!

[SouthFloridawx]

Looks pretty quiet in the atlantic for at least the next week to 10 days at least ...

According to the GFS lol... I'm sure we'll see something in the next couple of weeks.

One thing that scares me is that, it kind of reminds me a little of 2005 where anything that could and shouldn't did spin up. Let's hope we don't get another year like that.

[windstorm99]

Looks pretty quiet in the atlantic for at least the next week to 10 days at least ...

According to the GFS lol... I'm sure we'll see something in the next couple of weeks.

One thing that scares me is that, it kind of reminds me a little of 2005 where anything that could and shouldn't did spin up. Let's hope we don't get another year like that.

We'll the GFS has been developing everything in sight the past couple of weeks which maybe a problem with its genesis after the the lastest update on the model but overall things do look quite for atleast the next 10-15 days.

Its been rather active with 2 TS this early so lets hope its not a trend.

[Opal storm]

Conditions still not very ripe anywhere in the Atlantic basin, Barry was lucky to find a gap in all that shear. Should be 3-4 weeks till we see another storm.

[x-y-no]

Looks pretty quiet in the atlantic for at least the next week to 10 days at least ...

According to the GFS lol... I'm sure we'll see something in the next couple of weeks.

One thing that scares me is that, it kind of reminds me a little of 2005 where anything that could and shouldn't did spin up. Let's hope we don't get another year like that.

I use the GFS operational run and ensembles, of course, but I also rely a lot on the ECMWF for the mid-range. Then for a sanity check, I'll read the HPC long range discussion.

It's a good consensus for a week, anyway. After that, the GFS starts backing off the surface ridge a bit, and both Euro and GFS break down the strong mid-level ridge that they have over Cuba ... so it's at least somewhat possible that something brews in the Caribbean and heads north after that ...

As always, the upper air pattern is the lowest confidence piece of the puzzle once one gets out more than a few days. Or that's my experience, anyway.

[cpdaman]

i have an idea lets ask BERWICK BAY

[x-y-no]

i have an idea lets ask BERWICK BAY

I'll second that.

[cycloneye]

12z Long Range GFS



For a change GFS long range does not have anything developing into a storm for the next 2 weeks.

I am third on asking BERWICK.

[Sjones]

:cheering: BERWICK, BERWICK, BERWICK!!

[jusforsean]

Looks pretty quiet in the atlantic for at least the next week to 10 days at least ...

According to the GFS lol... I'm sure we'll see something in the next couple of weeks.

One thing that scares me is that, it kind of reminds me a little of 2005 where anything that could and shouldn't did spin up. Let's hope we don't get another year like that.

I remember that like it was yesterday! It was an interesting year

[x-y-no]

Yeah ... "interesting" as in the old Chinese curse ...

[Weatherfreak000]

probably considering how low shear values are getting in the East Atl, the ITCZ might be a good place to look.

[NDG]

Conditions still not very ripe anywhere in the Atlantic basin, Barry was lucky to find a gap in all that shear. Should be 3-4 weeks till we see another storm.

That's a crazy statement to say when there is a now a nice upper level anticyclonic ridge over the western Caribbean, and forecasted to stay in the general area with that kind of set up along with lower than anom. surface pressures, I'll doubt things will stay quite in the area for 3-4 weeks.