Florida is 2 for 2 This Year, Is This Making You Nervous?

#1 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jun 02, 2007 12:09 pm

Florida has been impacted by both tropical systems this year.

I am actually getting a bit nervous about this season. What is the sentiment in Florida now after going 2 for 2 so far?

I want to hear your thoughts

Opal storm · #2 Postby **Opal storm** » Sat Jun 02, 2007 12:13 pm

LOL Florida is in trouble every year. I have lived here long enough and been through so many storms I no longer worry about it, just got to live with it. If a storm comes this way you just have to prepare for it just like every other hurricane.

#3 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sat Jun 02, 2007 12:14 pm

I am thinking the same. I am thinking the US will have 70% of all storms this year. of that 70%, I think Florida will get 50%. In other words, if the season ends up getting to 20 storms, the US will be impacted by 14 storms, and florida will be impacted by 7.

#4 Postby **gatorcane** » Sat Jun 02, 2007 12:15 pm

fact789 wrote:I am thinking the same. I am thinking the US will have 70% of all storms this year. of that 70%, I think Florida will get 50%. In other words, if the season ends up getting to 20 storms, the US will be impacted by 14 storms, and florida will be impacted by 7.

7 storms that is a pretty bold estimate. Hope they are all weak.

Stratusxpeye · #5 Postby **Stratusxpeye** » Sat Jun 02, 2007 12:20 pm

gatorcane wrote:
fact789 wrote:I am thinking the same. I am thinking the US will have 70% of all storms this year. of that 70%, I think Florida will get 50%. In other words, if the season ends up getting to 20 storms, the US will be impacted by 14 storms, and florida will be impacted by 7.

7 storms that is a pretty bold estimate. Hope they are all weak.

I think the poster was using that is an example number. 7 for one state if they were like charley and wilmas than i prey for this state. If there like barry and andrea than good we need em keep bringing them!

Opal storm · #6 Postby **Opal storm** » Sat Jun 02, 2007 12:22 pm

fact789 wrote:I am thinking the same. I am thinking the US will have 70% of all storms this year. of that 70%, I think Florida will get 50%. In other words, if the season ends up getting to 20 storms, the US will be impacted by 14 storms, and florida will be impacted by 7.

Well then, that giant golf ball at Epcot might be floating in the Atlantic by the end of November if your forecast verifies.

#7 Postby **wx247** » Sat Jun 02, 2007 12:24 pm

gatorcane wrote:Florida has been impacted by both tropical systems this year.

I am actually getting a bit nervous about this season. What is the sentiment in Florida now after going 2 for 2 so far?

I want to hear your thoughts

I don't think there is a coorelation in my opinion (and it is just that, too, MY opinion). I feel that there are so many factors and variables that to say that hurricanes will likely come to Florida based off of what has happened thus far is just merely guessing.

That being said... the pattern that we are in now... if something doe get going in the Carib. and heads toward the Gulf, whatever is left of it (thanks to the shear) would likely head toward Florida.

#8 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sat Jun 02, 2007 12:25 pm

nothing scientific here either, but it is know that usually 1:2 for each following month until September. In that case, there has been 1 in May and 1 in June. I expect from that ratio one more in June. 4 in July, 10-13 in August and september. Then there is a dramatic drop off in the following month of, I think, 3:1. If there are 7 in September, then there will be 2 in October and maybe 1 in november and December. These are just a few things I have noticed in the very few years I have watched the tropics. I am now thinking there will be 19-21 TS's

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Scorpion · #9 Postby **Scorpion** » Sat Jun 02, 2007 12:44 pm

Not at all...

gtalum · #10 Postby **gtalum** » Sat Jun 02, 2007 12:47 pm

The way the May and June pattern sets up, there's not much else the storms can do. i'm not concerned.

#11 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Jun 02, 2007 12:56 pm

5, 10, even 20 weak storms is a lot better than one monster hurricane...

#12 Postby **brunota2003** » Sat Jun 02, 2007 1:29 pm

What about NC? We took on both storms as extratropical...We fared alot worse overall than Florida did from Arlene (her nontropical remenants included). Florida isnt the only state being impacted by these systems.

#13 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sat Jun 02, 2007 2:26 pm

Florida doesnt need to worry. Were in a "season cancel", remember? lol.

But really, this isnt looking good for FL this year!

Extremeweatherguy · #14 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sat Jun 02, 2007 2:28 pm

Hopefully Fl will get all the weak, early-season storms that bring beneficial rainfall..and then avoid all the stronger, late-season storms.

#15 Postby **skysummit** » Sat Jun 02, 2007 2:29 pm

These are general steering currents for this time of the year. It just so happens we had 2 systems develop under very hostile conditions. This, by no means, relates to future storm tracks. This does make you wonder though what will happen when conditions DO become favorable.

#16 Postby **windstorm99** » Sat Jun 02, 2007 2:45 pm

I would have to agree as there is no correlation between high activity early in the season and large numbers come august,september and october.

#17 Postby **Bellarose** » Sat Jun 02, 2007 3:03 pm

Is it making me nervous? You'd better believe it. Mainly because I will be delivering my daughter in the beginning of August and would be my luck that Tampa would beat all odds, lower it's "barrier" and get socked with a Cat 3+ while I'm on my way to the hospital, lol.

But I'd gladly take lots of the nice, weak Tropical Storms. At least until we're caught up on the drought.

Stratosphere747 · #18 Postby **Stratosphere747** » Sat Jun 02, 2007 3:09 pm

Prior to 03 - Florida has only been impacted by one severely sheared TS, and that is being generous...

#19 Postby **StormTracker** » Sat Jun 02, 2007 3:30 pm

Just my thinking, but I think we're gonna get the "double-whammy" from the Carribean this season! Normally we start out with CV storms, then later at the end of the season, we get Carribean systems and/or "home-grown" systems! Well being that we've had 1 from the Carribean thus far(which still looks like the area to be watched for any new development in the next couple of weeks)as things ripen a little more, the CS systems will start making their presence known, we'll probably be threatened by some of them and then towards the end of the season we'll have to worry about the Carribean again!!! I lived here in SW Miami all of my life(41 yrs/born in April of 1966)and as soon as I was old enough to know what a TC was, I labelled the state(peninsula)of Fla, "THE FORK IN THE ROAD"!!! They used to come towards us and then at the last minute swing to the left an go to the GOM or re-curve to some degree to the right and hit somewhere further up north or out to sea! Now, Fla is more like a magnet! :wink:

jinftl · #20 Postby **jinftl** » Sat Jun 02, 2007 3:31 pm

No storms prior to 2003? Ever?

Erin in 1995, Georges in 1998, Floyd in 1999, Irene in 1999...ask locals about those!

Florida is 2 for 2 This Year, Is This Making You Nervous?

Florida is 2 for 2 This Year, Is This Making You Nervous?

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