Next New Orleans

[OuterBanker]

I heard about this but this is the first time I've seen the article. It's an AP opinion of the top five candidates. Personally I don't think it is a good thing to be on the list.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/18943252/

[CrazyC83]

The world's next New Orleans? How about a Katrina-sized cyclone hitting western Bangladesh...that could be the world's worst natural disaster...

[DanKellFla]

The governments don't care, Bangladesh is mostly uninsured.

[Stratosphere747]

GALVESTON, Texas — There’s only one way off the island; the nation’s fourth-largest city blocks the path to safety.

It's quite easy to stop reading these articles when that can't even get the first sentence correct. Not that they would be the preferred routes off the island, but far enough in advance blue water hwy and the ferry could be used on a limited basis. Though I doubt Galveston has either route in a contingency plan, I had a few friends leave by taking blue water, and avoided the traffic jam.

[caneman]

Don't believe these people did their homework. How Tampa/St. Pete isn't on the list is beyond me. It is one one of the most populated cities, low lying, flood prone, storm surge risk, elderly population, lack of insurance, costly insurance. A Katrina type storm here I believe this area would not only be not recognizable but I don't believe would recover for a long time, if ever.

[hurricanefloyd5]

there is two of the same posts here on this board!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Janie2006]

Well, this thread seems to be the one for discussion of the topic, so off we go.

The article really goofs by not mentioning the Tampa/St. Pete area. I'd wager that Tampa is a far safer bet for a strike by a major hurricane than NYC, though hurricanes have struck New York and will do so again.

[caneman]

there is two of the same posts here on this board!!!!!!!!!!!!

PLease explain????????????

[Weatherfreak000]

I think this is just another flaccid attempt by the media to strike panic into citizens.

You can piece that together by the article name, "Next New Orleans", thanks MSNBC don't try and SCARE anyone with this article.

[x-y-no]

there is two of the same posts here on this board!!!!!!!!!!!!

I deleted the other thread.

[hurricanefloyd5]

there is two of the same posts here on this board!!!!!!!!!!!!

I deleted the other thread.

tyvm

[OuterBanker]

Sorry about the double post. Still having trouble with your site.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

In all honesty, there are many locations in the US that
could be disaster zones for many reasons, in the
event of a severe hurricane.

[storm54]

As far as I'm concerned any where along the Florida coast south of Daytona Beach on the east coast around to the Tampa Bay/St.Petersburg area on the Gulf coast is a disaster waiting to happen under the right conditions. Most of that area is heavily populated,maybe not all of it on the scale of a Miami or New York City.But chances are that a storm is going to either be hugging the coast as it moves north causing a lot of coastal damage as it progresses on that path, or is going to spread damage inland as it crosses the state headed toward the other coast and more open water. If a bad enough system strikes, and is moving fast enough, the loss of intensity would surely be minimal.Adding to the problem. Obviously there are other areas, such as Galveston,New York City, the Outer Banks of the Carolinas at risk should a storm with the ferocity of Katrina should strike,these areas are disasters waiting to happen.Especially when it comes to dealing with the fury of mother nature.

[Patrick99]

I think there is a slight inaccuracy in its Miami report, about there being "no hill to stop storm surge." There is, in fact, a hill that will protect much of inland Miami from storm surge....it's the coastal ridge, a giant slab of elevated coral rock that hugs the South Biscayne Bay coast. Go to the bridge over the Coral Gables Waterway adjacent to the Cocoplum circle and this elevation change can easily be seen. In the strict sense, it's only that elevated land that is fit for habitation, IMO - this will be made all too clear when a 1926 scenario happens again (and it will).

Don't get me wrong, there would be HUGE storm surge damage on South Beach, Key Biscayne, Downtown Miami and the immediate bay coastline, but there is a good part of mainland Miami that would not suffer from storm surge even in a Cat 4-5. It's not quite a New Orleans-like scenario.

[jasons2k]

As I posted in the first thread on this last week, any "Top 5" list that excludes Tampa-St. Pete is flawed.

[Steve]

>>As I posted in the first thread on this last week, any "Top 5" list that excludes Tampa-St. Pete is flawed.

I tend to agree. Really all of that part of SW Florida (including Manatee Co. as well as the Sarasota area) should be included. Nowhere had the problems we had with the dependency on levees, but there is going to be valuable and vulnerable real estate in anyone's top 5 (Washington DC, Houston, Tampa, Miami, NYC, Baltimore, etc. etc. etc.).

But there are also a lot of areas that have a lot of poor people and areas that are susceptible to other problems besides surge or levee related issues. In some of the coastal and mountainous regions of Central America (as well as in some of the islands), there is a susceptability to flash flooding, ridiculous rainfall, mudslides and such. You also have a more exposed population. Look back to Hurricane Mitch. Or what about the tip of Texas (Brownsville/Matamoras). These are some of the areas in our hemisphere that maybe don't get the play that some of the big coastal cities in the southern and eastern US do. But the potential catastrophic loss of life pretty much dwarves the loss of personal possessions and real estate that we're most likely to face. Chances are, no American storm (talking U.S. and A) in the near future is going to take 1,900+/- lives like Katrina did. But Mitch (thought to be the deadliest hurricane since the 1780's per NOAA) took at least 11,000 lives. It could easily happen again given the wrong set of circumstances.

JMO

Steve

[Steve]

>>It's not quite a New Orleans-like scenario.

Right. But Katrina was only maybe a 40% disaster scenario for New Orleans. I know it was in some other thread recently, but had Katrina come say 30 miles farther west, the entirety of Southeast Louisiana (seafood and oil production) would have been in the same boat. The reason the city has been able to survive so far is because of the limited damage to the Westbank and the limited damage on the east bank of Jefferson Parish (Metairie and Kenner). In almost every Cat 4 or 5 scenario, the Westbank goes under between 12-20 feet of water. So instead of just Plaquemines, Orleans, St. Bernard and some of eastern St. Tammany Parishes taking the brunt, Jefferson would have gotten devastated, St. Charles Parish would have been devastated, Lafourche and Terrebonne would have been devastated. That only leaves the Northshore of Lake Pontchartrain or roughly from Pearl River County, MS across the I-12 Corridor to Baton Rouge to house people while the city lies in disarray. It's gonna happen one day. Here and everywhere else along the coast too. The clock is always ticking toward the next time your area is going to get smashed.

Steve

[sunnyday]

Of course we should all prepare for the worset but the odds of a huge hurricane hitting any one are are pretty small. If it hits our aea, it would be huge, but it would be terrible anywere.

[Ixolib]

Actually, the "next New Orleans" can only happen in a place that is equally as far below sea level as New Orleans is. Truth is, had New Orleans been built like most cities - i.e., ABOVE sea level, Katrina's impact there would have been extremely minimal. Or at least certainly not what ended up happening.

So, using New Orleans as a "comparative" city in this or any other research is a bit off the mark unless they're talking about Amsterdam and other similar cities around the world. I'm not sure, but are there any other cities built below sea level in the US?