WXRisk's Summer Forecast

[windstorm99]

WXRisk's Summer forcast 2007

[MiamiensisWx]

Here is the link to the complete outlook.

http://www.wxrisk.com/Seasonalforcst/SU ... er2007.htm

[Stratosphere747]

He has mentioned for awhile that the WGOM would be safe this year.

Always skeptical about predicting setups this far out. Only takes a few days of changing conditions.

[Regit]

So the drought will cause the Bermuda High?

Hmmm...

[Opal storm]

They expect storms to cut right through that ridge?

[MiamiensisWx]

They expect storms to cut right through that ridge?

It indicates a general track around the periphery of the subtropical ridge. This depends upon the timing and extent of the ridging. According to the analysis, this indicates that the Bermuda ridge may merge with the Plains ridge, and this may influence some westward tracks into Mexico or southern Texas.

[DESTRUCTION5]

They expect storms to cut right through that ridge?

It indicates a general track around the periphery of the subtropical ridge. This depends upon the timing and extent of the ridging. According to the analysis, this indicates that the Bermuda ridge may merge with the Plains ridge, and this may influence some westward tracks into Mexico or southern Texas.

Any deviation of that ridge puts FL Pen in a nasty spot..Al la 2004 Fran, Jeanne, and Ivan

[windstorm99]

He's calling for dry times across the southeast in june and july.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am skeptical of this forecast. First off...I don't believe storms will be able to dive SW like that in the Western GOM, since I rarely ever see that occur. And second off...as others have said, it all depends on the conditions AT THE TIME. As we know, these conditions change daily, so what may be happening now, may not be in a month or two.

BTW...it's these kinds of forecasts that tend to mislead the average person. The average Texas resident who knows little about weather would see this and assume that there is no risk to their area this year. That is not really the mindset people should be in. EVERYONE needs to be prepared for anything. IMO, trying to give exact hurricane tracks this early on is a little crazy...instead I think focusing on the overall risk compared to normal in a percentage basis (similar to Dr. Gray's forecast) is a better way to go. Using that method, people do not get quite the same false sense of being "safe" and hopefully will be better prepared for the season ahead.

[Sjones]

I am skeptical of this forecast. First off...I don't believe storms will be able to dive SW like that in the Western GOM, since I rarely ever see that occur. And second off...as others have said, it all depends on the conditions AT THE TIME. As we know, these conditions change daily, so what may be happening now, may not be in a month or two.

BTW...it's these kinds of forecasts that tend to mislead the average person. The average Texas resident who knows little about weather would see this and assume that there is no risk to their area this year. That is not really the mindset people should be in. EVERYONE needs to be prepared for anything. IMO, trying to give exact hurricane tracks this early on is a little crazy...instead I think focusing on the overall risk compared to normal in a percentage basis (similar to Dr. Gray's forecast) is a better way to go. Using that method, people do not get quite the same false sense of being "safe" and hopefully will be better prepared for the season ahead.

I completely agree Extremeweatherguy. This "prediction" looks way off to me as well to say the least.

[KWT]

Its an interesting forecast for sure, his use of 1964 as a base is not exactly what you'd call great for those who don't landfalling hurricanes, what with Cleo, Dora, Hilda and Isbell all hitting hard and its six major hurricanes!

As for tracks, well take it with a pinch of salt I suppose!
Also I really don't think the La nina will establish as quick as he thiniks, it may be a player in the last 1/3rd of the season and extend it a little more but i can't see it being strong enough to relaly play a major part until September/October but thats just IMO, each veiw is as valid as anothers at this point.

[Stratosphere747]

I knew this forecast would get a rise out of a few SE Texas residents...

Anyways, it's just one forecast to soak in by a decent met. I doubt many read the entire write-up as well, and went by the basic illustration.

[Scorpion]

I find it funny how the only people complaining are the ones in the areas that he is calling for hurricanes not to hit this season

[Agua]

I find it funny how the only people complaining are the ones in the areas that he is calling for hurricanes not to hit this season

Big surprise there, huh?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Oh please...

I have heard enough of that before, and quite frankly, enough is enough. This has nothing to do with where I live and you know it. I gave a plenty good explanation as to why I didn't like the "prediction", and you can take it or leave it. I don't really care. I just don't want to hear the whole "it's because you live there" arguement anymore. You didn't see me calling for Barry or Andrea to hit Texas did you? You didn't see me praise any forecast specifically targeting Texas did you? You didn't hear me wishing and hoping for a Texas storm this season did you? Didn't think so. Time to stop these ridiculous remarks and move on to actual weather discussion.

[Opal storm]

I find it funny how the only people complaining are the ones in the areas that he is calling for hurricanes not to hit this season

I live in an area where this guy is calling for hurricanes and I don't agree with this forecast. So, you're wrong.

[Sjones]

Scorpion wrote:
I find it funny how the only people complaining are the ones in the areas that he is calling for hurricanes not to hit this season

Big surprise there, huh?

Yea, just what we want another hurricane! No, I don't even believe so! According to this forecast, anyone can see that it's very un-common for that kind of tracking. Basically it's showing to go east, northeast or way off to the west....c'mon! It's not impossible I suppose, however, it would be very rare. And as for all of you "hurricane wishers", wish your little hearts out. I will stand with most Texans by saying, "We DO NOT WISH for another hurricane".

[ALhurricane]

I am skeptical of this forecast. First off...I don't believe storms will be able to dive SW like that in the Western GOM, since I rarely ever see that occur. And second off...as others have said, it all depends on the conditions AT THE TIME. As we know, these conditions change daily, so what may be happening now, may not be in a month or two.

BTW...it's these kinds of forecasts that tend to mislead the average person. The average Texas resident who knows little about weather would see this and assume that there is no risk to their area this year. That is not really the mindset people should be in. EVERYONE needs to be prepared for anything. IMO, trying to give exact hurricane tracks this early on is a little crazy...instead I think focusing on the overall risk compared to normal in a percentage basis (similar to Dr. Gray's forecast) is a better way to go. Using that method, people do not get quite the same false sense of being "safe" and hopefully will be better prepared for the season ahead.

If you read his entire forecast and thought process, then you would see that there are valid reasons and points for every part of this forecast. This post is not intended to endorse or 'defend' the forecaster, but I think people need to take some time and read the thoughts and reasons behind the forecast. Once you do, you will see that this forecast does not depend on current conditions.

I do not think there is anything wrong with this type of forecast. It simply states general tracks that are more favorable based on his research.

After reading the forecast, I believe it has a good shot of working out quite well.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I am skeptical of this forecast. First off...I don't believe storms will be able to dive SW like that in the Western GOM, since I rarely ever see that occur. And second off...as others have said, it all depends on the conditions AT THE TIME. As we know, these conditions change daily, so what may be happening now, may not be in a month or two.

BTW...it's these kinds of forecasts that tend to mislead the average person. The average Texas resident who knows little about weather would see this and assume that there is no risk to their area this year. That is not really the mindset people should be in. EVERYONE needs to be prepared for anything. IMO, trying to give exact hurricane tracks this early on is a little crazy...instead I think focusing on the overall risk compared to normal in a percentage basis (similar to Dr. Gray's forecast) is a better way to go. Using that method, people do not get quite the same false sense of being "safe" and hopefully will be better prepared for the season ahead.

If you read his entire forecast and thought process, then you would see that there are valid reasons and points for every part of this forecast. This post is not intended to endorse or 'defend' the forecaster, but I think people need to take some time and read the thoughts and reasons behind the forecast. Once you do, you will see that this forecast does not depend on current conditions.

I do not think there is anything wrong with this type of forecast. It simply states general tracks that are more favorable based on his research.

After reading the forecast, I believe it has a good shot of working out quite well.

I guess what it is is that I am not really buying into is the steady high pressure placements. Overall, the general locations will likely be correct, but as we all know, short-term events can disrupt the pattern and could surely mean a different track for incoming storms. I think it may be just a bit too early to say certain areas are in the all clear and are "safe" this season. This will give some the wrong impression, and I think everyone needs to be prepared equally for the months ahead.

In the end, I hope he is right, but based on past "track predictions" I have seen (regardless of the source), I have learned that it is nearly impossible to know exactly where these storms will go until they actually form.

[Jam151]

BTW...it's these kinds of forecasts that tend to mislead the average person. The average Texas resident who knows little about weather would see this and assume that there is no risk to their area this year. That is not really the mindset people should be in. EVERYONE needs to be prepared for anything. IMO, trying to give exact hurricane tracks this early on is a little crazy...instead I think focusing on the overall risk compared to normal in a percentage basis (similar to Dr. Gray's forecast) is a better way to go. Using that method, people do not get quite the same false sense of being "safe" and hopefully will be better prepared for the season ahead.

How many people that aren't exactly weather enthusiasts do you think are visting sites such as wxrisk.com? Also, people are skeptical about CSU and NOAA's number as it is. I highly doubt somebody is gonna read something off the internet in May/June and forget about the hurricane season just because no TX landfalls are expected..