Interesting Discussion from TPA NWS

[SouthFloridawx]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 071800
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY - RUSKIN FL
200 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2007

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SATURDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST...AS THE RIDGE AXIS LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT. BROAD SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TRIES TO FORM ON THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER
THE BAHAMAS. MODELS TAKE THIS SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FA WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
CENTRAL AREAS...AND NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IN AREA OF DEEPEST MOISTURE. ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
NORTHERN FA AS DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ADVECT OVER THAT REGION.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR CLIMO ON FRIDAY...BUT
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHOULD
ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA TO RISE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. AREAL COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FA SATURDAY
IS UNCERTAIN DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH ENERGY/ORGANIZATION REMAINS
WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH. ATTM...WILL TREND POPS SLIGHTLY
LOWER WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY)...START OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN POOR MODEL RUN
CONSISTENCY. NAMELY...GFS AND NAM...WHICH ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP A
WAVE OF LOW PRES IN VCNTY OF THE BAHAMAS EARLIER IN THE WEEKEND...
DRIFT IT WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
RECENT RUNS HAVE BEEN DIFFERING ON WHERE THIS WAVE WILL BE DRIFTING
AND WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE ADVECTION AND PCPN WOULD OCCUR. SINCE A
LOT OF MODEL DETAILS WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT...
AT THIS POINT WILL HOLD POPS TO 30 PCNT DAYTIME SUNDAY...WITH LESSER
POPS OVERNIGHT. ONCE THIS SYSTEM MOVES BY TO OUR WEST ON SUNDAY...
MODELS GENERALLY RETURN TO A BROAD E TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE PENINSULA
WITH THE SFC RIDGE AXIS TO OUR E OR NE MOST OF NEXT WEEK...AND MID
LEVEL TROF DEEPENING WELL TO OUR EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
AT THIS POINT THIS PATTERN SUGGESTS A RETURN OT WEATHER MORE TYPICAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR FOR THE MON-THURS TIME PERIOD...EASTERLY
FLOW...DIURNAL SEA BREEZE ACTIVITY WITH 20-30 POPS...AND HIGHS
AROUND 90.

&&

[DrewFL]

Oh.....I thought you were quoting Miami. I saw the Tampa.

[JonathanBelles]

Yea...this is Tampa, not MIA.

[mf_dolphin]

I corrected the title.

[windstorm99]

Interesting indeed and if it hangs around long enough some of the models show windshear lowering over the bahamas and the gulf in the next 3-5days.As high pressure builds back in it will tend to push this area back into south florida.

NAM @ 60hrs...

[windstorm99]

Upper level winds look favorable across the area for the next couple of days.

Sat loop from ramsdis.

[gatorcane]

Looks like some deep convenction has already started.

I would be watching this area closely...as UL winds are relaxing and SSTs are plenty warm enough

[windstorm99]

This almost looks like another possible andrea like scenario takeing shape.

[Opal storm]

This almost looks another possible andrea like scenario takeing shape.

I agree, but I'd like to see more persistence. Convection isn't even all that deep right now, let's see how it looks tomorrow.

[SouthFloridawx]

Yeah, I meant to say Tampa, but I lived in SE FL for 5 years so I think it's habit.

[jaxfladude]

Three Named Storms before June 30th???

[jaxfladude]

This almost looks like another possible andrea like scenario takeing shape.

Do not get jaxfladude started, oh that is me....

[cpdaman]

funny jax dude

is there any kind of low at the surface yet

also what does berwick bay have to say about this ?

[Recurve]

Key West mentions Bahamas low developing and trough-TUTT scenario

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
410 PM EDT THU JUN 7 2007

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH NO
PRECIPITATION ECHOES IN OUR AREA...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ON THE INCREASE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. ACROSS THE MARINE
DISTRICT...C-MAN STATION PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS INDICATE EAST WINDS
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
A FAIRLY ROBUST...EAST-WEST ORIENTED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
(100-500 MB) SHORT WAVE OVER EXTREME NORTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE PINCHING OFF AS A
TUTT LOW TYPE FEATURE NEAR OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A LOW LEVEL (1000-850 MB) WEAKNESS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
EXTREME NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...ALLOWING OUR WINDS TO BACK TO NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE IN
PLACE...SOME LARGE SCALE ASCENT COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST STEERING FLOW WILL PROMPT LIKELY POPS. IN
ADDITION...ENOUGH INSOLATION...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD
ALLOW CLOUD LINES TO FORM. THEREAFTER...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN ABOVE
NORMAL POPS SATURDAY.

.EXTENDED FORECAST (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. GIVEN THE MOIST LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW...WILL MAINTAIN
NEAR CLIMO POPS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

[ronjon]

18Z NAM brings the low west across the Fl straits to just north of the Yucatan in 84 hrs. GFS brings the vorticity across the S FL peninsula into the eastern GOM. Neither model really develops it much. Pressures are still high in the Bahamas. This may be a mid-to-upper low feature. Will have to see if it builds down toward the surface. The GFS is developing another 1008 mb low in the western carribean next week separate from the Bahamas disturbance.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_138s.gif

[caneman]

This area looks like it is trying to come together to me.

[N2FSU]

great... my wife and son just left out of Jax on a cruise to the Bahamas.

[Berwick Bay]

18Z NAM brings the low west across the Fl straits to just north of the Yucatan in 84 hrs. GFS brings the vorticity across the S FL peninsula into the eastern GOM. Neither model really develops it much. Pressures are still high in the Bahamas. This may be a mid-to-upper low feature. Will have to see if it builds down toward the surface. The GFS is developing another 1008 mb low in the western carribean next week separate from the Bahamas disturbance.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_138s.gif

Someone in this thread asked for my opinion. I already asked for Dean to post any models which might serve to confirm my forecast of almost 4 days ago now, for a developing tropical system along the North Coast of the Yucutan. Perhaps this is the first one. According to Ronion, this model brings lower pressures through the Straits of Fl and to the N Yucutan Coast). I'm trusting you Ronion cause I hate to pull these models up myself. Time frame listed as 84 hours (another 3 and 1/2 days). That just about right for my Mon. Morning Forecast. Ronion says that GRS is developing a 1008 Low in West Carribean next week. He says that neither model shows anything to indicate continued develoment into cyclone status. But perhaps these models are beginning to "latch onto" what I say very early Mon Morning. Lower pressures at surface near northern Yucutan, which will be under stable conditions aloft. So my opinion right now is that the models are beginning to catch up and that the Berwick Forecast is still very much alive.

[boca]

I see an ULL developing over North Florida and not moving ,will that dictate future development of the B.B. low at 24n 92w or advect the moisture east of Florida back towards the west.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[wjs3]

Boca:

I was just reading the Key West AFD--the mention that the ULL will move:

IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR JACKSONVILLE WILL MOVE
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. BY SUNRISE FRIDAY...THIS UPPER LEVEL AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SHOULD BE LOCATED NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE

In fact, an earlier Key West AFD is even more descriptive:

A FAIRLY ROBUST...EAST-WEST ORIENTED MID AND UPPER LEVEL
(100-500 MB) SHORT WAVE OVER EXTREME NORTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD DOWN THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE PINCHING OFF AS A
TUTT LOW TYPE FEATURE NEAR OUR REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

There is a TON of dry air in the mid/upper troposphere over the western gulf right now. In BB's time frame, maybe that will change (I haven't looked at models either, BB). But it's a major issue right now.

WJS3