African wave IS a player - 93L Invest

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/rb-l.jpg

This one looks pretty classic and is pretty compact.

[boca]

Hey Dixie is this wave a womenizer. I liked what you said about the wave being a player.

[dixiebreeze]

LOL Boca. The wave does look much better than any earlier ones.

[SouthFloridawx]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 091039
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.


...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 5N25W 4N40W 9N57W. NUMEROUS
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF
AFRICA FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 10W-19W. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE ALTHOUGH SIMILAR
CONVECTION MOVED OFF AFRICA EARLY FRI AND HAS GREATLY
DIMINISHED SINCE. WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE ADDING ANOTHER WAVE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 27W-30W
AND BETWEEN 54W-57W.

30 Minute interval animation of area:
http://www.fileden.com/files/18682/SEL_ ... dust.x.gif





GFS Wind Shear Forecast looks good for this area:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

Although there are reasons why these systems don't develop this time of year. They end up just being too far south.

[wxman57]

That wave certainly caught MY eye this morning. The disturbance appears to have good outflow where the GFS indicates strong easterly winds aloft. Makes me a bit suspicious of the GFS upper wind forecasts out there. It's southern location may keep it alive. But it's in the "death zone" for tropcial waves emerging off Africa. If the convection persists another 24 hours then maybe it'll have a chance at developing. Big IF, though.

[SouthFloridawx]

That wave certainly caught MY eye this morning. I don't trust those GFS winds/shear estimates in the tropical Atlantic very much. The disturbance appears to have good outflow where the GFS indicates strong easterly winds aloft. It's southern location may keep it alive. But it's in the "death zone" for tropcial waves emerging off Africa. If the convection persists another 24 hours then maybe it'll have a chance at developing. Big IF, though.

As I think I have heard you say, that when you see something like this too far south, Coriolis Effect is less than it would be it if it were, @ 10N or farther.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Wow! That disturbance has really great outflow
for a wave at that location this time of year!!!!

[windstorm99]

Indeed the windshear forcast infront of this wave looks quite favorable and from the looks on visible sateliite imagery you can see some good outflow but now lets see if convection persists as it tracks westward.

RGB image...

[drezee]

That wave certainly caught MY eye this morning. The disturbance appears to have good outflow where the GFS indicates strong easterly winds aloft. Makes me a bit suspicious of the GFS upper wind forecasts out there. It's southern location may keep it alive. But it's in the "death zone" for tropcial waves emerging off Africa. If the convection persists another 24 hours then maybe it'll have a chance at developing. Big IF, though.

After looking at the 30-minute visible of the disturbance, I am actually shocked at how vigorous the mid-level circulation is. It is mean! The surface circulation seems to still be embedded in the trough. I can only remember a system like this in June of '98. I thought that it was going to be classified. I made it all the way to 35W and looked like an August wave. There were some rumblings about classifying it, but it fizzled near 40W. I am saving images on this one.

[O Town]

That wave does look impressive. SAL looks stong to the north, and not too bad in front of it but may inhibit organization once it gets further west.
It will be fun to watch.

[drezee]

With the surface reflection embeeded in the trough, the lack of surface convergence will likely be the demise of this system. i.e. it will be hard to sustain the needed convection with out it...

[Derek Ortt]

once the waves (which QS often depict as TDs and storms) in June move away from the monsoon trough, they usually die a quick death

That said, that wave/whatever it really is, looks quite healthy this morning

[drezee]

It will offically be introduced as a wave on the 18z discussion

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

[GrimReaper]

Isn't it a little early in the season for his type of wave?????

[Ola]

Lets see if it can keep convection and circulation after leaving the monsoon off Africa. If we get an established monsoon off Africa like this this season, it might be a good year for Cape Verde storms.

[hawkeh]

This wave does look very impressive for this time of year. Any chance on this one?

[wzrgirl1]

with that said....has a cape verde system ever made it all the way across and affect the CONU so early in the season?

[drezee]

with that said....has a cape verde system ever made it all the way across and affect the CONU so early in the season?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

There is an archive link on the left panel. You should go check it out.

[wzrgirl1]

with that said....has a cape verde system ever made it all the way across and affect the CONU so early in the season?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

There is an archive link on the left panel. You should go check it out.

thanks but I was just curious if anyone knew off the top of their head

[drezee]

with that said....has a cape verde system ever made it all the way across and affect the CONU so early in the season?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

There is an archive link on the left panel. You should go check it out.

thanks but I was just curious if anyone knew off the top of their head

to my knowledge, the answer is no...but we have only been doing this for a small amount of time (in the grand scheme of things)...anything is possible