South Caribbean firing

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg

[MortisFL]

Alot of things going on for it being this early...and C is already next

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

Continues to look better and better.

[Swimdude]

I'm going to wait until tomorrow morning to make judgments on this area of convection. It did just fire up today, so I'd like to see if it survives the night first.

[dixiebreeze]

I hear you swimdude. I'm not making any judgments, but it's in a potent area for development this time of year -- so, very interesting.

[AnnularCane]

Looks like more of an EPAC candidate to me. Is there anything to pull it north?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Some very strong convection taking place in the south Caribbean...
if the shear reduces I give it a 40-50% chance at tropical
development.

[windstorm99]

This maybe what the nogaps model was hinting at a few days ago.It generally took it north.

[Praxus]

I agree with swimdude. If it moves north and maintains a lot of the convection then I think we have a player.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

High Heat Content and sea surface temperatures
all across the western caribbean
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Of course we have to see if the shear dies down.
What is shear looking like right now?

Explosive convection
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... xirg8n.GIF

And again the oceanic heat content
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[windstorm99]

Of course we have to see if the shear dies down.
What is shear looking like right now?

Upper level winds look quite favorable...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thank you for that shear map...I must say with the convection the way it is:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... xirg8n.GIF

Shear is favorable.
SSTs are explosive.
Lots of moisture over the South Caribbean
60% chance of Becoming TD 3.

[Praxus]

Looks like more of an EPAC candidate to me. Is there anything to pull it north?

Looking at the latest IR loop it seems like its moving northwards...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[Stratosphere747]

This area was mentioned in the latest disco, with no mention of any development. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1748.shtml?

You could copy and paste this, as that particular area of the SW Caribbean is always a "hot spot" for convection and not necessarily development.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Best on latest shear maps, it is about ready to move into 20+ knot shear. Also as the upper low sits at near 23 north/83 west, it is forming shear south of it. In which is starting to hit this system at this time, with 10 knot increase of shear over the western Caribbean. Yes sst's are warm but they don't mean a whole lot when there is strong shear. Also look at how the clouds are moving southward on the axis at near 85 west, east of that the shear/movement of the clouds turn out of Southwest to Northeast; while west of it Northwest to southeast. This blow up is currently don't have a chance if it reachs it, in it should over the next 6-12 hours. Doe's it look good, sure. But I would say 10-20 percent chance currently, based on the fact that cyclones can form under shear.

[O Town]

Definitely firing some convection. It does seem to be a "hot spot", active quite a lot.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

IMO this has the biggest shot of anything in the Atlantic right now.
Shear will be an important factor.
Here's another look at the very intense convection
associated with this disturbance:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... xirg8n.GIF

[drezee]

How many times can one model predict development?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084s.gif

[sevenleft]

Call me when the Euro, the Ukie, and the GFS jump on it.