Overall Status of 2007 Season so far

[Berwick Bay]

Very positive for development, I think. Already two named systems and considerable activity in general across breadth of basin. I respect the opinions of those who are now waiting for August (I think that view shows a lot of experience), but I respectfully disagree. Here's why.
A. Two named systems (May - Early June)
B. African Wave Train Active-Witness system from two days ago coming off coast
C. Carribean seems to be bubbling (just under surface, so to speak). Much of it continues to be in SW Carribean.
D. Many have posted warnings about a somewhat active Gulf in late week (according to different models).
E. Think of other years. In some of those, quiet June-July really means quiet. You can hear a pin drop. Nothing anywhere close to developing in those years.
F. A "Berwick Bay Hunch" --Starting in July--Look at Bahamas.

[boca]

Berwick you also have to consider the upper air winds(shear) to see if its condusive for tropical development. Because 40 to 50 knot winds will put a halt on development.

[skysummit]

Berwick you also have to consider the upper air winds(shear) to see if its condusive for tropical development. Because 40 to 50 knot winds will put a halt on development.

Even though wind shear remains high in most areas, even that is below average when comparing to climatological shear.

[Frank2]

True - as Air Force Met mentioned, upper level conditions in the Gulf are very hostile for development at this time...

As far as the season, well, some in the media noted the ominous June 1 appearance of a tropical storm, but, the last time that happened was in 1968 - which turned out to be a quiet season, so...

[Stratosphere747]

For the early season activity -

One was a STS that prior to 03 would have not been named. The other by some accounts was a tropical system for maybe six or so hours while recon was flying, and at "landfall" was a poorly represented storm.

I wouldn't say the African wave train is active either. I've seen years in the past were waves were much more impressive this early in the season, only to go kaput once emerging in the Atlantic like those this year - The few that have come off the coast. In fact if you look at Africa now, there is little if anything coming across for the next 5 days.

[x-y-no]

Well, I don't know about waiting till August ... for the busy part of the season, sure, but I think we get a named storm or two in July.

[KWT]

As Frank said before on another thread we aren't even close yet to the 6-8 week heart of the season and yet we've had 2 named systems already, even tohugh both were questionnable what do you expect for May/June and we are running above average right now.

Africa moisture figures is a little above average which suggests less dry air present and also the Azores high isn't as strong as last year which I think threw across a heck of a lot of dust, it only eased once we gained a -ve NAO signal in August. Atlantic SSt's aren't that amazing to be honest, not a patch on 05 though the Caribbean is pretty warm still. also Shear is below average for the time of year and sure its still high in some regions but what do you expect...its not even mid-June yet!!!

[dwg71]

A. Two named systems (May - Early June) --- NO RELATION TO OVERALL SEASON ACTIVITY
B. African Wave Train Active-Witness system from two days ago coming off coast --- AGAIN NO RELATION TO ACTIVITY
C. Carribean seems to be bubbling (just under surface, so to speak). Much of it continues to be in SW Carribean. NOT SURE WHAT THIS MEANS
D. Many have posted warnings about a somewhat active Gulf in late week (according to different models). NOTHING IMMINENT
E. Think of other years. In some of those, quiet June-July really means quiet. You can hear a pin drop. Nothing anywhere close to developing in those years. NOTHING REALLY BREWING AND ITS RELATIVELY QUIET
F. A "Berwick Bay Hunch" --Starting in July--Look at Bahamas. HUNCHES ARE FUN WHEN THE PLAY OUT, WE WILL SEE.

[WindRunner]

A. Two named systems (May - Early June) --- NO RELATION TO OVERALL SEASON ACTIVITY
B. African Wave Train Active-Witness system from two days ago coming off coast --- AGAIN NO RELATION TO ACTIVITY
C. Carribean seems to be bubbling (just under surface, so to speak). Much of it continues to be in SW Carribean. NOT SURE WHAT THIS MEANS
D. Many have posted warnings about a somewhat active Gulf in late week (according to different models). NOTHING IMMINENT
E. Think of other years. In some of those, quiet June-July really means quiet. You can hear a pin drop. Nothing anywhere close to developing in those years. NOTHING REALLY BREWING AND ITS RELATIVELY QUIET
F. A "Berwick Bay Hunch" --Starting in July--Look at Bahamas. HUNCHES ARE FUN WHEN THE PLAY OUT, WE WILL SEE.

Actually, B. is my favorite indicator so far . . . the fact that the African ITCZ is having this much fun early on seems promising. Of course, you are right in saying that it doesn't necessarily mean anything for later in the season, but it definately means something as soon as the shear drops . . .

C means that there is going to be a lot of storms (i.e. energy) sitting around the caribbean waiting for a little wave or naked swirl to come around . . . and then we get problems. Things rarely turn out well when the convection just sits over one part of the Carib for a week straight . . . and it seems to be happening quite often already.

[windstorm99]

As far as the early development we have seen this year it means nothing to what the rest of the year may bring,infact the way the pattern has been looking for the past month or two if this were august-september most systems would be turned away from the united states due to persistent trofiness we have had so far. Lets hope it persists.

www.Adrian's Weather.com

[Frank2]

Yes, it seems the long-term weather patterns (drought, flood, heat, cold, etc.) are key when it determines what will take place in the larger sense.

Short term patterns also affect weather, but, those patterns that last for months or even years are what make the difference in global terms...

[windstorm99]

It would not surprise me if we see these quite times rule through atleast the begining of july before we get another named storm in the atlantic basin.The pattern out across the atlantic is such that trofs and ull's are creating unfavorable conditions arcoss most of the basin.The wave that moved of africa a few days ago in my opinion really had no chance due to cool sst's and a fast steering flow in the eastern atlantic.Overall there's a small chance for something to develop in the caribbean area as conditions look to become somewhat more favorable in the coming days.Adrian

As others have stated enjoy these quite times cause who knows what august,september,october will bring.


www.Adrian's Weather.com

[benny]

There have been some favorable signs so far, including reduced wind shear and others factors. But it is really early... and the MJO (or whatever there is of it right now) has been in a positive phase over the Atlantic since late May. This will probably change in a week or two and then we'll have people on here saying "season over etc..." as upper westerlies start in the Atlantic. Maybe I'll post later about some favorable factors. I will say that if the current anomalous low shear conditions repeat in July, we will likely see some sort of low-latitude interesting hurricane... a la Claudette of 2003.

[windstorm99]

CPC weekly graphic

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

We have had an active year so far with 2 named storms,
both of which impacted Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas.

But I think we get a short break in June before things
pick up again towards the beginning of July.
Now as for August-September, with these factors
in place, I expect extensive to explosive activity during
those two months given- higher ssts and lower than normal
pressures and more african moisture.

[wobblehead]

I did not hear NOAA's forecast completely but I did hear a clip stating that they expect developement in the "deep tropics" later in the season. I do know that mother nature always has her way and she will do something with all that heat building building up down there through the summer.

[Dean4Storms]

There is little doubt that we are headed toward an above average season, but it is only a guess as to when the uptick begins. Normally you have to wait for Aug. to really see things take off, but there are some early indicators that this season could start the uptick a bit early. Those indicators are 1) An active ITCZ, 2) Lower overall pressures, 3) Below average wind shear values and 4) Slightly above average SST's.

Still with all these positive indicators for an above average season, we will all have to wait to see when and if it transpires into reality. Trying to place a date in which it turns on is nothing but wild guessing.

[Berwick Bay]

Dean, guess what, I TOTALLY AGREE WITH YOU! And pretty much for those reasons you stated. I look out there, and believe me, its not near as dead as some seasons that I've seen in the past. ITCZ very respectable, lower pressures in general, hey you went through the list. But Dean here's the part where I pretty sure you're going to disagree with me. I'm calling for about a 30% chance of development around my old busted forecast point for next week. I'm giving it a significant chance. As ULL dives south toward Vera Cruz its pulling moisture up the W Coast of the Yucatan. I'm looking for some persistence there, as I think the old bogeyman that Powerful High at extending form the Mexican Coast might back off just a bit (with that retrograde trough coming down into the E Gulf). Might be a possible "no man's land between the three major upper air masses (Western High--Eastern Trough--Upper Level Low). That area would be just NW of the Yucatan.

[boca]

Berwick I'm interested in your next prediction the Bahamas.

[Berwick Bay]

Boca, I wouldn't call it a prediction just yet, (still have to digest my last defeat)
but after the 4th of July, I may start giving the Bahamas a LOT more credence. I'll still be looking at the GOM at that time too (maybe up toward the North Gulf Coast itself for formation). Not too hot on the Carribean in July, if we do get development there, I would tend to look for it in the central Carribean, south of Guantanamo during the month of July..