My NW Caribbean Prediction

[SouthFloridawx]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Looking at the 500mb 00HR of the GFS:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_000l.gif
We see that the steering currents are weak at best. As the 500mb builds westward it, (whatever it is, if anything) it shouldn't move very much. Perhaps that is what the Canadian is seeing... The upper level low, causing 20-30kts of shear over the system, looks like it should weaken during the next 24 hours, which may take away some of the sheer that is plaguing this broad surface low. The Upper Low may give the appearance that this system would be quickly shot off to the North/Northeast. However Tropical systems are not steered by the upper levels. Weak Tropical systems are pushed more by the mid-lower levels. That's where I'm going to look. Right now it's just a broad surface low, no defined center... just multiple vortices's being kicked off by convection.

250mb Heights/Wind Speed - 12Z GFS:



As the sheer relaxes over this area during the next 48 hours, and if this broad low is still around, I think we'll see some slow development of this system. It even appears that a weak anti-cyclonic rotation over the system is possible.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_048l.gif

This system if anything develops should move slowly northward then NE as suggested by the Canadian.

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict, a weak tropical system, TD - MAX weak TS, to affect the SW Florida to the Keys in 72-120 Hours. I could be right and I could be wrong... It'll be a learning experience for me.

If nothing more it should make for an interesting weather event for Florida this weekend.

[WindRunner]

Although it would seem to be normal to see a storm in that area move into the gulf, steering currents don't quite agree. IF it can get its act together where it is, then that eastward motion will start almost immediately, and it'll crash into the Cuban mountains . . . however, that is still a big if. Because on the other hand, if it develops in the Gulf, it'll have far more room to get going before it hits land, as well as somewhat warmer waters.

[SouthFloridawx]

As it was pointed out in the other thread... I figured that this was going on.

NHC 2:05PM Discussion...

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INTERESTING FEATURE OF THE DAY IS A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND SFC TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EXTREME W CUBA TO THE
GULF OF HONDURAS. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
RIDGE/ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 15N85W IS ENHANCING THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT IS SPREADING OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
AND E-CENTRAL CUBA. A NEAR 60 NM WIDE BAND OF MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO EAST OF THE SFC LOW/TROUGH
AND EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC COAST OF NICARAGUA ALL THE WAY N TO
20N83W. A 1009 MB SFC LOW IS ANALYZED ON THE 1200 UTC SURFACE
MAP NEAR 19N86W. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A PLUME OF
MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS IS STREAMING BY
WSW UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA INTO THE
W ATLC. THE TYPICAL LOW OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS PRODUCING SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS JUST OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST. COSTA
RICA AND PANAMA ARE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EPAC ITCZ. TRADE
WIND SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. TWO
TROPICAL WAVES ARE ALONG 60W AND 70W. SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION
FOR DETAILS.

[SouthFloridawx]

Just, keeping track here...

We now have 94L, not too much to look at, but as shear relaxes we may see something weak come out of this.

Note the low upper level winds where the slowly moving system is located.


Note the weak steering currents on the 500mb Forecast from 18Z GFS