June 16 00 UTC ECMWF model run

[crownweather]

I noticed this morning that the European Model is forecasting something to try and develop on Friday June 22nd about 200 miles south of New Orleans, Louisiana. The European model then forecasts this system to track northwestward and come ashore along the southwestern coast of Louisiana on Sunday, June 24th. I wanted to make two caveats here: One is that none of the other global forecast models are showing this and two is that this is the first model run that this model is showing this type of activity. So, personally, I am discounting this possibility for now, but I wanted to point it out for future possibilities and something to look for over the next week.

[Sjones]

I noticed this morning that the European Model is forecasting something to try and develop on Friday June 22nd about 200 miles south of New Orleans, Louisiana. The European model then forecasts this system to track northwestward and come ashore along the southwestern coast of Louisiana on Sunday, June 24th. I wanted to make two caveats here: One is that none of the other global forecast models are showing this and two is that this is the first model run that this model is showing this type of activity. So, personally, I am discounting this possibility for now, but I wanted to point it out for future possibilities and something to look for over the next week.

Please send the link to this model, if ya don't mind

[crownweather]

ECMWF Model

[NDG]

I was about to post this, but you beat me to it, not only is the Euro coming out with this but the CMC and UKMET are also hinting for the same scenario:

Going by last night's runs of the CMC, UKMET & Euro, which I've been studying for the past hour, things could get interesting on the GOM by the end of the week.
They are forecasting some sort of mid level energy retrograde or move southwestward from SE US into the GOM during the middle of the week:

Possibly form a surface low pressure and become warm core.
The Euro (which I'm starting to respect more & more on its 7 day forecast) is the most aggressive in developing a warm core surface low by Thurs-Frid of next week, with fairly light winds aloft:



Past 7 days the Euro takes it into SW LA around the mid level ridge that could be center around the mid MS Valley.



The GFS is not showing anything right now in the GOM, could be its usual clueless forecast. We will see what their next runs will be like over the next few days.

[crownweather]

The part that made me sit up a little more this morning IS the fact that the EC model verifies fairly well on its 7 to 10 day forecasts, but I am cautious about this prog because of the fact that this is the first model run that shows this and yesterday's 12Z run showed nothing during this time period.

[Sjones]

Nonetheless, it is very interesting, and does bare some watching

[NDG]

The part that made me sit up a little more this morning IS the fact that the EC model verifies fairly well on its 7 to 10 day forecasts, but I am cautious about this prog because of the fact that this is the first model run that shows this and yesterday's 12Z run showed nothing during this time period.

Yesterdays 12z euro run did show the mid level low by the middle of next week but pretty much on top of the northern gulfcoast thus not developing it into a warm core cyclone. It also did show an upper level ridge in the northern GOM.

[flwxwatcher]

Yes.. looks like both the EURO and CMC are showing development from a Trof spilt .. Interesting to see how and if this pans out later this week

[Jagno]

Combine this information with Cycloneye's post
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=180
and this is disturbing for those of us along the NW Gulf Coast to say the least. Even considerable amounts of rain cannot be suppported in this area right now as we have saturated soils already.

[x-y-no]

Looks mildly interesting ...



Let's see if it keeps developing this feature over the next few runs.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=95460 ?

Any connection there?

[Rainband]

It's One model run, lets see if it continues or if other models pick it up.

[southerngale]

Combine this information with Cycloneye's post
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=180
and this is disturbing for those of us along the NW Gulf Coast to say the least. Even considerable amounts of rain cannot be suppported in this area right now as we have saturated soils already.

That's what I was thinking. Our local 5 and 7 day forecasts already show high to decent chances of rain every day.

[SouthFloridawx]

Combine this information with Cycloneye's post
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... &start=180
and this is disturbing for those of us along the NW Gulf Coast to say the least. Even considerable amounts of rain cannot be suppported in this area right now as we have saturated soils already.

That's what I was thinking. Our local 5 and 7 day forecasts already show high to decent chances of rain every day.

Sorry, I didn't see your post Jagno... I apologize.

[Dean4Storms]

Keep in mind that even if something does verify and form in the Gulf it is likely the placement and track forecasted by the models would change many times over. It is something to keep an eye toward in future model runs but I wouldn't start getting all that concerned over it just yet. Better go board my windows. LOL!

[caneman]

If I'm reading it right, it look like CMC wants to pull a weak feature into into West Florida at end run

[stormcloud]

I noticted the HPC isn't too concerned:

THE 00Z ECMWF AND ITS CLOSED SFC-500 MB LOW SHOWS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION WITH LOWER HEIGHTS/PRESSURES THAN THE OTHER MODELS ALONG
THE GULF COAST DAYS SIX/SEVEN. NONE OF THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAD A CLOSED LOW SFC/ALOFT IN THE REGION...SO THE 00Z
ECMWF WAS WEIGHTED THE LEAST. THE GFS/NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN/CANADIAN
GLOBAL/UKMET MODELS DO AGREE THAT A CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE SHOULD
DEVELOP IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER IN THE EASTERN GULF COAST...AND
THESE SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED.

[flwxwatcher]

I noticted the HPC isn't too concerned:

THE 00Z ECMWF AND ITS CLOSED SFC-500 MB LOW SHOWS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION WITH LOWER HEIGHTS/PRESSURES THAN THE OTHER MODELS ALONG
THE GULF COAST DAYS SIX/SEVEN. NONE OF THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAD A CLOSED LOW SFC/ALOFT IN THE REGION...SO THE 00Z
ECMWF WAS WEIGHTED THE LEAST. THE GFS/NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN/CANADIAN
GLOBAL/UKMET MODELS DO AGREE THAT A CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE SHOULD
DEVELOP IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER IN THE EASTERN GULF COAST...AND
THESE SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED.

Interesting..
the Operational 12Z EURO shows a low forming in the Gulf again this run.. Like dean said.. things will change from run to run.. We will have to see how this pans out as the week moves on..

[canegrl04]

Something to watch next week I hope it doesn't target La.They sure don't need another hurricane right now

[NDG]

I noticted the HPC isn't too concerned:

THE 00Z ECMWF AND ITS CLOSED SFC-500 MB LOW SHOWS AN OUTLIER
SOLUTION WITH LOWER HEIGHTS/PRESSURES THAN THE OTHER MODELS ALONG
THE GULF COAST DAYS SIX/SEVEN. NONE OF THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAD A CLOSED LOW SFC/ALOFT IN THE REGION...SO THE 00Z
ECMWF WAS WEIGHTED THE LEAST. THE GFS/NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN/CANADIAN
GLOBAL/UKMET MODELS DO AGREE THAT A CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE SHOULD
DEVELOP IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER IN THE EASTERN GULF COAST...AND
THESE SOLUTIONS ARE PREFERRED.

Interesting..
the Operational 12Z EURO shows a low forming in the Gulf again this run.. Like dean said.. things will change from run to run.. We will have to see how this pans out as the week moves on..

Yes, it continues to show a warm core surface low to develop out of a retrogading mid level trough but not as aggressive as the 00z run. Takes it more westward toward upper TX coast.