Controversial Topic--Independence of Local Mets

[Berwick Bay]

Many of you in Fl respect Bryan Norcross (and rightfully so).Here's a scenario.

Major hurricane is bearing down on the Fl Straits. NHC 72 Hour Forecast takes storm into the Straits and then on into the Gulf. Miami is in the northern edge of the cone, further north West Palm Beach and Jupiter Inlet in central Fl or just out of the cone. However, Norcross drawing on his experience and expertise in tropical meterology is somewhat skeptical and believes that a more northerly turn is possible than that foreseen by the NHC. He believes that Miami may get the brunt, not the edge of the storm, and that hurricane conditions will be experienced further north on toward Jupiter Inlet. How much freedom should Norcross have to expound his view (in a logical not fearful manner) about what he percieves as a danger to Miami and then central Fl? This same type of situation happened in Sw la. with Rita in 05, and I felt like the local mets were somewhat hamstrung as far as their ability to take care of their own consitiuency, and in their having to tow the official govt (NHC) forecast. So should local mets like Norcross have any freedom at all???

[Cyclone1]

Hmm.... interesting topic. Of course he's entitled to his own opinion, but whether he should be allowed to broadcast his own opinion in contrast to the NHC's? I'm not sure. I think at best he should say something like, "Hurricane Zelda is currently predicted to move just south of Florida, but a Floridian landfall is not out of the question. The smallest shift in its path could possibly send it into Miami. Continue to watch this storm closely and take the nesessary precautions, but remember, hurricane are not localized events. Their effect can spread far beyond their landfall." Or something along those lines. But I think if he said, "Hurricane Zelda is probably going to turn north into Miami despite the prediction cone" and it didn't, he could potentially cause problems that way.

But hey if he's right, he'll be worshipped as a meteorologist for a long time to come. Still, the NHC is the only official forecast.

[Berwick Bay]

Strong reply Cyclone. I know that you can't have "two" forecasts. But my experience in SW La for Rita was that local mets could not even speculate on the possibility of a La. landfall with its attendant effects along our coast. I remember well that 24 hours before the storm's landfall, the media finally got on board with predicted surges in Vermillion Parish. At work that day, my peers were shocked and some actually disbelieving when I told them that our stretch of coast was going to take a significant hit from the storm. They turned on their teleivision's and got that word (24 Hours before landfall). Climo itself would have told local mets that a storm in the last week of Sept might very easily take a more northerly track than the one forecast by the NHC. Yet local mets only held their tongue. I think this is a situation that many of you along other coastlines will experience in the next few years.

[windstorm99]

Bryan will always make the right call in my opinion.

If your area is placed under a warning you have to prepare as if the storm were coming right for you cause at any given moment the storm can change direction and move over your area.Hurricanes never travel in a straight line.

Many people in south florida during hurricane katrina were caught by surprise cause the conditions that were experienced in miami dade and broward counties were not expected.Its very important in my opinion not focus on that black line.Adrian

[Berwick Bay]

My point too Windstorm is that as unlikely as it might seem to some of you, the 72 Hour Forecast is still not quite where it should be. For Rita in 05, areas outside of the CONE 72 hours before landfall were affected in a huge way (surge). If a local met thinks that an area like this (outside of the 72 hour cone) might take a strong surge, or experience borderline hurricane winds, as did people in Vermillion Parish (outside the cone at 72 hours), should he say so?? How many today, feel like they couldn't go against the official forecast?

[Cyclone1]

Well if it's dealing with indirect effects of the storm (surge, rainfall, etc), I think it's fine.

But I see what your saying. I think 72 hours out is even too far off for a local met to make a call like that.

[miamicanes177]

The NHC and NWS is the only source of information the public should follow. The public should not follow the advice of their local mets if that advice contradicts anything from their local NWS or NHC. The NHC has information that professional mets do not have access to and or do not understand.

[mf_dolphin]

I'm locking this topic since it's a hypothetical situation involving a real met. Since Mr Norcross is not here I don't feel it's propoer to use his name.