Is a new center forming more north?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Jul 31, 2003 8:40 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

It appears as I look at the visible imagerys that a new center may be forming north of 10n where convection is building but we have to see what the TPC has to say about that.Any of you see the same thing?

#2 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Jul 31, 2003 8:52 am

Wow!!! That was not there a little while ago!! I wish I had the "latest" images available to confirm this. I must agree with you Luis. It appears to me that a LLCC is forming at 11N, 30W with the convection now beginning to wrap in from all directions. If this isn't TD #8 by 11am it should be and TS Erika actually wouldn't surprise me by 5pm. This is looking more and more organized with each loop!!!

mf_dolphin · #3 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Thu Jul 31, 2003 8:58 am

Still not real pretty on QuickSCAT. It's still elongated but it does show a few barbs of 20-25 knot winds on the south side. :-)

Steve H. · #4 Postby **Steve H.** » Thu Jul 31, 2003 10:09 am

That is THE center. It is developing about where you noted Luis. If this trend continues, it should begin to wrap in the convection to its SW and Erika should be on her way, as the low center should now begin to deepen. Barring any disruptions, this should be Erika by 11pm tonight. Tracks? Who knows for sure. LBAR and BAMM take it NW; A98 and BAMD take it westward. We watch! Cheers!!

southerngale · #5 Postby **southerngale** » Thu Jul 31, 2003 10:21 am

Yes, it definitely looks interesting. We sit and wait...

Guest · #6 Postby **Guest** » Thu Jul 31, 2003 10:43 am

Wait and see!!!! ARGH!!!!

#7 Postby **vbhoutex** » Thu Jul 31, 2003 11:20 am

Steve H. wrote:That is THE center. It is developing about where you noted Luis. If this trend continues, it should begin to wrap in the convection to its SW and Erika should be on her way, as the low center should now begin to deepen. Barring any disruptions, this should be Erika by 11pm tonight. Tracks? Who knows for sure. LBAR and BAMM take it NW; A98 and BAMD take it westward. We watch! Cheers!!

The center is now very obvious with the turning. It wasn't quite that obvious earlier and until now the loops haven't been as definitive about the center which resulted in an appearance of the circulation center appearing to be further W than it actually was or maybe the levels weren't as stacked as they are now. The lastest on the floater definitely shows the circulation center to be at or near 9N. 30W just about where NHC has pinpointed it. This puppy is starting wind up in all quadrants and I still would not be surprised with a jump to minimal TS from our current status within 24 hours. Need to check the quikscat first to be sure of the winds, but first impressions are as I have stated above.

Is a new center forming more north?

Is a new center forming more north?

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