With TD #8/TS Erika all but assured, the question now is...

[vbhoutex]

whether the organization will steadily continue and we get TS Erika at 50-60kts. before she reaches the weakness in the ridge to the North. If the strengthening continues at a steady pace and we have a strong TS by the time the disturbance reaches the weakness, expect to see the beginning of a curve more poleward, possibly a somewhat sharp turn. If the system continues at it's present strength or as a weak TS Erika it will be much more likely to continue it's W to WNW track on into the Islands. Either way Luis, Janice, Ola and others are all looking East for the next 3 days or so to be sure nothing sneaks up on them!!