Remember Andrew?

[sunnyday]

I was reading a book on the science and history of hurricanes, and it discussed Andrew in detail. We were living in the area where the storm was headed at the time, and the author of the book mentioned that as late as the Friday before the storm hit on Sunday night/Monday morning, the forecasters didn't see the danger it was to become. I don't remember this happening, but supposedly the weathermen told the residents of South Florida on Friday to have a nice weekend and check the storm's progress on Sunday and Monday. As late as Friday afternoon, they gave only a 7% chance of its going to Miami! Finally, on Saturday, they realized that Andrew was a dangerous monster storm.
Thank goodness, methods of predicting storms have improved since then.
My question is if anyone remembers that the weather forecasters didn't realize how intense Andrew was until a day or so before it hit.

[windstorm99]

Andrew....I will never forget that night i was living in florida city right of US1 and 312ave when it came through.

Basically the chance was there for andrew to turn but a very strong ridge build to its north and really set it on its course towards south florida.Andrew almost did not make it.

[Aric Dunn]

i wont forget it.. i got struck by lightning from one of the rainbands the next morning

[sunnyday]

Do you remember that it was heading for WPB before it wobbled and went to Miami?
Some people are lamenting a slow year for hurricanes this year, but the year Andrew hit, it obviously was the first one of the season, and that was toward the end of August.

[southerngreen]

my husband owned a semi at the time & his friday run was usually to miami. i kept an eye on the weather during the day, but without any real concern over it.

and the place where i worked had an office in south carolina & they were calling us all concerned on friday & we were wondering what the big deal was!

the forecasters here certainly didn't play it up (of course, it had been a long time since anything really big had hit this end of the state).

[Nimbus]

There was a ULL that split causing a rapid change in track.

Same thing could happen again.

[windstorm99]

It was a very slow season and andrew was the 1st.

If you visit my youtube page i have a few andrew videos saved along with alot great hurricane footage.

Adrian's youtube page

[Cyclone1]

i wont forget it.. i got struck by lightning from one of the rainbands the next morning

Really?! Wow, never been struck (although my dad was, and I was almost struck today )

[windstorm99]

On its way towards south florida...

[TheShrimper]

Hey Windstorm, isn't 312th Campbell? I was close by in FL. City holed up at the Last Chance Saloon on my way back to Lee County. Was Harris Field built then, I can't remember. Anyways, the Last Chance was only one of the few that remained open throughout the ordeal. I believe the Texaco station just south of Palm Dr. on US 1 was open as well, at least it was the day after. I saw the Winn Dixie Plaza on 312th between US 1 and Krome, the following day. It was destroyed. Remember, Andrew did have an escape route while it was just east of the Bahamas. When the blocking high built in, it could only go west, or even a few tenths south of west. There was plenty of time, if people understood the possibilities. Norcross explained it well in advance, but not many listened.

[Aric Dunn]

i wont forget it.. i got struck by lightning from one of the rainbands the next morning

Really?! Wow, never been struck (although my dad was, and I was almost struck today )

yeah i was outside and it had just got done raining really hard.. and the sun was out. i hold a umbrella and the bolt hit one street over and actually the finger hit my umbrella .. and melted the whole thing and knocked me on my butt!!!

[Cyclone1]

i wont forget it.. i got struck by lightning from one of the rainbands the next morning

Really?! Wow, never been struck (although my dad was, and I was almost struck today )

yeah i was outside and it had just got done raining really hard.. and the sun was out. i hold a umbrella and the bolt hit one street over and actually the finger hit my umbrella .. and melted the whole thing and knocked me on my butt!!!

That's pretty crazy man.

[CourierPR]

Actually, the NHC director Bob Sheets, later said that he had anticipated a strike near the Miami-Dade-Broward County line. As we all know, the southern part of Miami-Dade took the brunt of the storm.

[southerngreen]

i wont forget it.. i got struck by lightning from one of the rainbands the next morning

Really?! Wow, never been struck (although my dad was, and I was almost struck today )

yeah i was outside and it had just got done raining really hard.. and the sun was out. i hold a umbrella and the bolt hit one street over and actually the finger hit my umbrella .. and melted the whole thing and knocked me on my butt!!!

OUCH!

[windstorm99]

Hey Windstorm, isn't 312th Campbell? I was close by in FL. City holed up at the Last Chance Saloon on my way back to Lee County. Was Harris Field built then, I can't remember. Anyways, the Last Chance was only one of the few that remained open throughout the ordeal. I believe the Texaco station just south of Palm Dr. on US 1 was open as well, at least it was the day after. I saw the Winn Dixie Plaza on 312th between US 1 and Krome, the following day. It was destroyed. Remember, Andrew did have an escape route while it was just east of the Bahamas. When the blocking high built in, it could only go west, or even a few tenths south of west. There was plenty of time, if people understood the possibilities. Norcross explained it well in advance, but not many listened.

Here a classic video of bryan norcross tracking andrew.Awsome!

http://youtube.com/watch?v=czk4DvPRyEc

[HurricaneRobert]

It's hard to believe that was almost 15 years ago. Were the local stations still broadcasting during landfall?

[Recurve]

It's hard to believe that was almost 15 years ago. Were the local stations still broadcasting during landfall?

Brian Norcross on NBC 4 (then), led the news team into an equipment storage room, showing everyone in the audience to hunker down, he took phone calls on the air as the eye was a few hours away, then minutes and through landfall and the entire passage.

To me Andrew seemed no big deal on Friday. I made plans to go canoeing on the Loxahatchee on Saturday. Floated down the river all day and after dinner saw on TV that Andrew had become a major, if I remember correctly. Saturday night drove back to Coconut Grove. At noon Sunday the radio said to evacuate the Grove. Drove to Key Largo, grabbed things and headed back up Krome, finally stopping in Highlands County at Lake Placid -- those names sounded right, fleeing a monster storm.

Being in the Last Chance I can't imagine. The Taco Bell across U.S. 1 was crushed and the hotel a few blocks up gutted, entire roof collapsed with sections blown away. The trailer park at the foot of the Turnpike at U.S. 1 was like a Kansas town after an intense tornado. The Herald ran a photo of an older man in a chair on a trailer platform amid a field of complete rubble, metal twisted into knots.

...When the blocking high built in, it could only go west, or even a few tenths south of west. There was plenty of time, if people understood the possibilities. Norcross explained it well in advance, but not many listened.

Good points.
And must have been a horrible night for Windstorm99 in Homestead.

[windstorm99]

It's hard to believe that was almost 15 years ago. Were the local stations still broadcasting during landfall?

Brian Norcross on NBC 4 (then), led the news team into an equipment storage room, showing everyone in the audience to hunker down, he took phone calls on the air as the eye was a few hours away, then minutes and through landfall and the entire passage.

To me Andrew seemed no big deal on Friday. I made plans to go canoeing on the Loxahatchee on Saturday. Floated down the river all day and after dinner saw on TV that Andrew had become a major, if I remember correctly. Saturday night drove back to Coconut Grove. At noon Sunday the radio said to evacuate the Grove. Drove to Key Largo, grabbed things and headed back up Krome, finally stopping in Highlands County at Lake Placid -- those names sounded right, fleeing a monster storm.

Being in the Last Chance I can't imagine. The Taco Bell across U.S. 1 was crushed and the hotel a few blocks up gutted, entire roof collapsed with sections blown away. The trailer park at the foot of the Turnpike at U.S. 1 was like a Kansas town after an intense tornado. The Herald ran a photo of an older man in a chair on a trailer platform amid a field of complete rubble, metal twisted into knots.

...When the blocking high built in, it could only go west, or even a few tenths south of west. There was plenty of time, if people understood the possibilities. Norcross explained it well in advance, but not many listened.

Good points.
And must have been a horrible night for Windstorm99 in Homestead.

My house was a total loss....But if there's one thing i took from andrew was material things can be replaced but life cannot.It was clearly the most terrifying night of my life to this day.Thankfully we all made it through that horrible experience.

We have been very lucky across miami dade and broward counties for a long time but that luck will one day run out.Ernesto last year was quite a scare but it was no match for those cuban mountians.Adrian

Here's part of the advisory that really got my attention

ERNESTO...WITH A THIRD CHANNEL POSSIBLY DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AND
INTO AN UPPER-LOW MOVING RAPIDLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN. THIS
VERY FAVORABLE LOW-SHEAR AND ENHANCED OUTFLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST
BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL
ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST. IF ERNESTO DOESN'T LINGER OVER CUBA
FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS...THEN MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH SEEMS LIKELY
BY 96-108 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT
HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS...GFDL...AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY
MODEL FORECASTS.

[TheShrimper]

I believe the hotel that you are refering to is the "Fairview". It is the one presently that houses the Fla.City Chamber of Commerce at it's entry. It is directly behind the Burger King and Long John Silvers on US 1. I saw the hotel after the storm, and it was very bad. The trailer parks I remember most in terms of destruction, was the one that was located west of Sam's Hideaway, off of Krome about 200 yrds. The Goldcoaster on Palm Dr. and the park that was located on the east side of Krome between Mowry and Lucy. It was directly north, across the street from the Everglades Motel. The concrete slabs are still there, nothing else. If anyone knows the name of this park, please post it. I never got east of US 1, north of Naranja up to Cutler Ridge and Kendall. I have friends that relocated here to Lee County, that lived there, and have no reason to doubt what they said happened there. I have seen the pictures and they were not good.

[Derecho]

I was reading a book on the science and history of hurricanes, and it discussed Andrew in detail. We were living in the area where the storm was headed at the time, and the author of the book mentioned that as late as the Friday before the storm hit on Sunday night/Monday morning, the forecasters didn't see the danger it was to become. I don't remember this happening, but supposedly the weathermen told the residents of South Florida on Friday to have a nice weekend and check the storm's progress on Sunday and Monday.

Regardless of what various local weather stations did, the NHC never did the above. Every NHC advisory forecast Andrew to strengthen, and essentially every NHC advisory had Andrew heading in the general direction of Florida.

As late as Friday afternoon, they gave only a 7% chance of its going to Miami!

if you're referring to NHC probabilities, there may have been probabilities with Andrew with a 7% chance of hitting Florida, but without checking it may not have been that precise time.

Probabilities are consistently misunderstood -it's only a probability WITHIN THE NEXT 72 HOURS. Due to storm speed, etc. a forecast track could be heading right for a city with that city getting a fairly low probability of being hit.

My question is if anyone remembers that the weather forecasters didn't realize how intense Andrew was until a day or so before it hit.

It wasn't a question of "realizing" Andrew was intense; it simply intensified extremely rapidly.

The track forecasts for Andrew were generally very accurate. It ended up intensifying faster than forecasts prior to landfall, but intensity forecasts have always been difficult.