Invest 96L=Tropical Wave in Southern Caribbean

[cycloneye]

Thread #1

Thread #1

Continue the discussions at thread #2.

[Aric Dunn]

ok this is for tampa bay

first go thru this
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/trg/tropical/ ... cklist.htm

then this
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/~chu/chap3/s ... 3_contents

and when your done you will have a much much clearer understanding

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thank you aric!


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


So I say there is a pretty good chance we see a tropical depression
tomorrow.



Dry air seems to be retreating and shear is right now
very low across the entire region, plus the oceanic content
is high...so those are the three reasons that seem to
perhaps partially substantiate some aspects of my
amateurish tropical rationalizations....
So my forecast is:
24 hours- 35 mph TD
48 hours- 50 mph TS
72 hours- 60 mph TS
96 hours- well maybe it's too early to go
there....
Again my understanding is limited and it is possible
that I am sleep-typing and having an odd dream that
seems to dictate fantasy forecasts to my addled mind

[jinftl]

cool pics of system east of the islands...also pretty impressive blob about to emerge off of africa

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/FULLDISK/GMIR.JPG

[Aric Dunn]

so far so good on the burst.. the orange are staying around.. and i see some possible convection trying to build on the north and on the east sides.. it still shallow but will see on the next images.. it right near the center

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Very conducive tropical system banding taking place
A fireup of convection and complete detachment from
itcz and with low shear, not too much intruding dry air,
and high oceanic heat content I say we have a depression by
tomorrow night.

[Derek Ortt]

why do some here only give intensity forecasts, when intensity forecasting is so poor, even for those who do this for a living?

Track is far easier and you will be more successful. There is a reason why NHC did not start issuing intensity forecasts until 1990

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Quoting someone from the first thread:

For some time I have been hoping to find a secret decoder ring for the raw SHIPS output like the one you linked to (looks to me like you noted a Theta E piece of the output????) Can you or anyone else help?

I don't know what a lot of the stuff is either. Maybe by next year I will figure it out and build a decoder for it.

I've been too busy working on these two areas of my site...

Google Earth models:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/plots/96.shtml

Experimental recon decoder:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/

But when I get around to it I'll try to make a decoder for the SHIPS text output.

Out of interest I'll post this image I just made for another site that does not update:

[tailgater]

Lots of time to watch this whether it's classified or not. Now showing up on the GHCC Goes -E
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES0 ... RYoP7k.jpg

[hurricanefloyd5]

I thinking everyone has or is calming down now!!!!!!!

[Berwick Bay]

Here's what I don't understand about the forecast track displayed earlier in this thread. The track takes it north of the Lesser Antilles. But doesn't that imply a strengthening system which is caught up in more of the upper level flow? Yet when I see intensity forecasts posted here, I see nothing of the kind. Ony a marginal Wave-Depression type system. If it truly remains weak, won't it take the track further south and into the Carribean?? I think that it will in fact VERY SLOWLY become better organized. And tend to stay south of this forecast track, entering the Carribean and not passing north of Puerto Rico. IMHO.

[Stratosphere747]

Keeps it weak in the short-term

[Berwick Bay]

Thats what I'm saying. If it remains weak, then the chances of that more northerly track seem diminished to me.

[Aric Dunn]

Here's what I don't understand about the forecast track displayed earlier in this thread. The track takes it north of the Lesser Antilles. But doesn't that imply a strengthening system which is caught up in more of the upper level flow? Yet when I see intensity forecasts posted here, I see nothing of the kind. Ony a marginal Wave-Depression type system. If it truly remains weak, won't it take the track further south and into the Carribean?? I think that it will in fact VERY SLOWLY become better organized. And tend to stay south of this forecast track, entering the Carribean and not passing north of Puerto Rico. IMHO.

the answer.. is a most likely yes.. and no.. the steering currents in the deep layers are very much west to east.. and in the low levels there is a break in the ridge but its a little furhter north,, and i expect the models are seeing the ridge stay fairly the same which keeps on a wnw track which is very typical .. we would need a building ridge to keep the weak system south,.,but seriously you should not even be worrying about the forecast track past the next 24hrs because its going to determine if it survives or not..

[Aric Dunn]

just as i though .. the burst is going to possibly more substantial then the last .,.. and there is some convection on the east side that is starting to interest me

aaawww its a little red dot.. of cold cloud tops

[harmclan]

96L has been able to sustain itself somewhat displaying flare ups of convection throughout the day which is typically seen in waves (aka wave impulses). It's now dis attached itself on the east and west side of the ITCZ. 96L continues to move west, riding on the southern outer edge of the dry air which has eroded most of the convection to the northeast. Until convection can deepen and sustain itself, giving 96L a more symmetrical shape, NHC won't classify this as a TD.

http://ustropics.ulmb.com

[wjs3]

Quoting someone from the first thread:

For some time I have been hoping to find a secret decoder ring for the raw SHIPS output like the one you linked to (looks to me like you noted a Theta E piece of the output????) Can you or anyone else help?

I don't know what a lot of the stuff is either. Maybe by next year I will figure it out and build a decoder for it.

Chris:

Let me know if/when you figure this out (the SHIPS model). Appreciate the reply.

Thanks

WJS3

[wxmann_91]

Here's what I don't understand about the forecast track displayed earlier in this thread. The track takes it north of the Lesser Antilles. But doesn't that imply a strengthening system which is caught up in more of the upper level flow? Yet when I see intensity forecasts posted here, I see nothing of the kind. Ony a marginal Wave-Depression type system. If it truly remains weak, won't it take the track further south and into the Carribean?? I think that it will in fact VERY SLOWLY become better organized. And tend to stay south of this forecast track, entering the Carribean and not passing north of Puerto Rico. IMHO.

I'd agree with you Berwick. I don't see this going north of Puerto Rico, and that's because I don't see this strengthening. Too much dry air. MAYBE when it gets into the Caribbean.

Low level flow is EASTERLY at 96 hr. Not seeing this plowing into a ridge unless it strengthens.

[Aric Dunn]

96L has been able to sustain itself somewhat displaying flare ups of convection throughout the day which is typically seen in waves (aka wave impulses). It's now dis attached itself on the east and west side of the ITCZ. 96L continues to move west, riding on the southern outer edge of the dry air which has eroded most of the convection to the northeast. Until convection can deepen and sustain itself, giving 96L a more symmetrical shape, NHC won't classify this as a TD.

http://ustropics.ulmb.com

it does not need a symmetrical shape.. just persistent convection.. which since about 5pm as been around .. although small and not very typical of a TS .. TD is much more likely.. but that is just details really no need for it.. yeah it needs to keep at the least the convection its been having as of late.. and the new burst here is going to be bigger
possibly

[Aric Dunn]

Here's what I don't understand about the forecast track displayed earlier in this thread. The track takes it north of the Lesser Antilles. But doesn't that imply a strengthening system which is caught up in more of the upper level flow? Yet when I see intensity forecasts posted here, I see nothing of the kind. Ony a marginal Wave-Depression type system. If it truly remains weak, won't it take the track further south and into the Carribean?? I think that it will in fact VERY SLOWLY become better organized. And tend to stay south of this forecast track, entering the Carribean and not passing north of Puerto Rico. IMHO.

I'd agree with you Berwick. I don't see this going north of Puerto Rico, and that's because I don't see this strengthening. Too much dry air. MAYBE when it gets into the Caribbean.

Low level flow is EASTERLY at 96 hr. Not seeing this plowing into a ridge unless it strengthens.

why are you looking at a vorticity map for steering currents thats not going to help you much ..