New Orleans NWS Getting BOLD!

[skysummit]

A member on our Gulf Coast forum brought this to our attention this morning. VERY interesting from the NOLA NWS....a normally extremely conservative group typing some big words for the north central gulf coast. It is a very obvious set up, but I never thought they'd actually put it in a discussion....this far in advance.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
349 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2007

.SHORT TERM...
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED SINCE YESTERDAY AS UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE
OVER LOUISIANA COUPLED WITH LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW AND ABUNDANT
MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SINCE WEDNESDAY.
BAROTROPIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE TEXAS COAST HAS BEEN AN
EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKER TO OUR WEST AND SOME DEBRIS UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS PRODUCING SOME VIRGA/VERY LIGHT RAINFALL OVER CENTRAL
AND EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME. THIS SITUATION OCCURRED A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO AND INHIBITED CONVECTIVE ONSET UNTIL LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A COVECTIVE TEMPERATURE OF
87F WHICH WILL BE AROUND THE MAX TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY. GIVEN
FAVORABLE DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND UNSTABLE BAROTROPIC NATURE OF
AIRMASS WILL INCREASE POPS TO 70 PERCENT FOR ALL AREAS
TODAY...THOUGH SOME VERIFICATION MAY COME IN THE FORM OF
STRATIFORM THIS MORNING.

THE PRECIPIATION CALCULATOR USING A RANGE OF THETA-E VALUES FROM
344K TO 361K YIELDS A LOW POP DAY...13 PERCENT! THIS IS DIFFICULT
TO FATHOM BUT MAY BE ONTO SOMETHING IF UPPER CLOUDS STAY AROUND
MOST OF THE DAY. WILL SORT OF BANK ON CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY
CURRENTLY MOVING WESTWARD BELOW GULF SHORES ALABAMA WILL PROVIDE
SOME CLEARING AND CONVECTIVE ONSET THAT SHOULD BECOME ENHANCED
UNDER BETTER DIVERGENCE ALOFT. RICKS INDEX 46 ONLY GIVES A 5 TO 10
KT GUSTS POTENTIAL AND NO HAIL OR TORNADO THREAT. EFFICIENT RAINS
ARE INDICATED WITH ISOLATED 4.76 INCHES TO 6.04 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THIS TRANSLATES TO ONLY A 0.19 INCH MEAN AREAL PRECIPITATION GIVEN
THE LOW POP. WILLL CARRY 30 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS EVENING FOR
LINGERING AFFECTS. FRIDAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY LOWER CHANCES AS
ATLANTIC RIDGE STARTS SPREADING WESTWARD...PLACING GREATER
INFLUENCE ON TYPICAL LAKE AND SEA BREEZES. 24

.LONG TERM...
WILL BE STAYING CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES
AS BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED FROM THE WEEKEND
ONWARD. WHILE THIS MAKES FOR EASY ROUTINE FORECASTING...OUR
VULNERABILITES TO TROPICAL CYCLONES FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
CARIBBEAN SEA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE
AND LATTER PART OF JULY. NOTHING IS ON THE IMMEDIATE HORIZON BUT
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST AN INCREASED VULNERABILTY IN
THE UPCOMING WEEKS FOR LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTS...
PARTICULARLY ANYTHING MOVING OUT OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
CARIBBEAN SEA IS REMARKABLE QUIET AT THIS TIME. 24

&&

[windstorm99]

The dry air in the caribbean should keep things quite the next couple of days at least.

[boca]

I guess they have a crystal ball . Are they seeing something in the long range models to think that or are they just anticipating something forming and nailing the area.

[Frank2]

Must admit that I don't understand why they write that, and, from what I learned when in the NWS, a statement like that is not permitted, since it is not objective standard forecast terminology, but, only someone's subjective opinion (or perhaps fear, considering the place of origin)...

[skysummit]

They're just posting about the steering currents. They're not saying anything will form....but if something did, it'll likely end up in the Gulf. That's something we've already known. I just never thought I'd actually read it.

[boca]

WILL BE STAYING CLOSE TO CLIMATOLOGY RAIN CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES
AS BERMUDA RIDGE PATTERN BECOMES ESTABLISHED FROM THE WEEKEND
ONWARD. WHILE THIS MAKES FOR EASY ROUTINE FORECASTING...OUR
VULNERABILITES TO TROPICAL CYCLONES FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND
CARIBBEAN SEA WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WE MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE
AND LATTER PART OF JULY. NOTHING IS ON THE IMMEDIATE HORIZON BUT
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST AN INCREASED VULNERABILTY IN
THE UPCOMING WEEKS FOR LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI COASTS...
PARTICULARLY ANYTHING MOVING OUT OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL.
CARIBBEAN SEA IS REMARKABLE QUIET AT THIS TIME. 24

I guess their saying since the Bermuda high will become established anything that forms SE of them will affect them is some way.

[artist]

could it be a reminder the season is now upon thus be prepared, don't get complacent?

[skysummit]

Yea...basically. It's just a pattern that's been establishing itself over the past few weeks. I was talking with some co-workers a couple weeks ago about this pattern and we really need it to change come the peak of the season. I just never thought they'd actually put it in a public discussion....especially from such a conservative group.

[crazycajuncane]

It looks like open season to me. Get the gear ready it's gonna be a long one!

[Frank2]

I agree, skysummit - again, I was told that a statement like that is really not permitted (or, at least, is frowned on), because it is subjective and not objective...

Those here who are in aviation are familiar with this - the FAA does not allow for free-ranging or "non-standard" conversation between controllers or pilots, not because they are dull, but, because non-standard conversation can be easily misinterpreted, especially by those who are of another language - the same is true with the NWS.

I can't imagine what someone overseas would think upon reading the above NWS comment - they'd likely be confused as to it's meaning...

[windstorm99]

Actually according to jeff masters the gulf might be at less risk this season with the current pattern in place.

The steering current pattern for June featured a pattern much like we saw in 2006, with an active jet stream bringing many troughs of low pressure off the East Coast of the U.S. The position of the Bermuda-Azores High (Figure 6) was pretty close to average. Its strength was only 1 mb below average, driving slightly slower trade winds than average across the tropical Atlantic. I expect this pattern to continue for the first half of July, and the troughs should be frequent enough and strong enough to recurve any tropical storms or hurricanes that penetrate north of the Caribbean Sea. Steering current patterns are not predictable more than about two weeks in advance, and there is no telling if we are in for a repeat of the favorable 2006 steering current pattern that recurved every storm out to sea. It is encouraging to note that in 2006 the steering current pattern locked into place in late May and stayed that way for almost the entirety of the hurricane season. The atmosphere often stays locked in to a particular steering pattern for an entire summer, and it would not be a surprise if that occurred again this year. If this pattern holds, expect a below-average chance of hurricane landfalls along the U.S. Gulf Coast, and normal to above normal chances along the U.S. East Coast.

[skysummit]

Yea, that's been the pattern we've been in, but there's a persistent weakness over Texas, and we've all been seeing model forecasts of the ridge building back to the west. I dunno....I guess everyone will have their own opinion

[crazycajuncane]

Basically put ... if it's gunna hit ... it's gunna hit and there isn't anything we can do but be prepared for it!

And that means have lots of food and cold drinks ready!

[boca]

Can they get fined for making that statement?

[crazycajuncane]

Can they get fined for making that statement?

Why are you interested in going in half on a lawsuit? Seems to be the trend these days!

The NWS had me paranoid all season and a cane never hit!! I wan't money for my pain and suffering.

[boca]

Can they get fined for making that statement?

Why are you interested in going in half on a lawsuit? Seems to be the trend these days!

The NWS had me paranoid all season and a cane never hit!! I wan't money for my pain and suffering.

You have a better shot than me since I'm in Florida.

[crazycajuncane]

Can they get fined for making that statement?

Why are you interested in going in half on a lawsuit? Seems to be the trend these days!

The NWS had me paranoid all season and a cane never hit!! I wan't money for my pain and suffering.

You have a better shot than me since I'm in Florida.

I already sued once this year... for my pants that were lost at the local dry cleaners. I wanted $54 million... guess we all can't get what we want?

[Frank2]

When I worked for the NWS, I was told that a statement like that is really not permitted (or, at least, is frowned on), because it is subjective and not objective...

Those here who are in aviation are familiar with this - the FAA does not allow for free-ranging or "non-standard" conversation between controllers or pilots, not because they are dull, but, because non-standard conversation can be easily misinterpreted, especially by those who are of another language - the same is true with the NWS, since their forecast products are sent and read worldwide.

I can't imagine what someone overseas would think upon reading the above NWS comment - they'd likely be confused as to it's meaning...

He or she cannot be fired over a statement like that, but, they might receive a terse e-mail from a supervisor...

[Berwick Bay]

Its a very general statement, that probably should not be included in an official forecast. I think what they're basically saying is that for the next few weeks (hey, perhaps longer), the Northern Gulf Coast appears open for business. I remarked about this a week or so ago calling this "hurricane weather". Our summer here along the La. Coast has been very comfortable so far. Most days temps running up to about 87 or so. Plenty of moisture. Obviously, we don't have any kind of blocking high in place which would normally bring us the hot summer conditions. During those hot summers, we tend to get less tropical weather. So I think that they're basically on to something, but your right, it shouldn't be in an official forecast.

[cpdaman]

is it me or do the NWS new orleans and and jeff masters have completely different views on the situation at hand regarding the extent and influene of the ridge and the troughs.

is the crux of the differnce that masters thinks these troughs will penetrate further south than they actually will and that in fact they are not effecting as low latitudes yet as they did last year? he does strike me as a bit of a ...well.....flip flopper

as far as putting wording like this in there DISCO's big deal the only people that read it are weather geeks who should be able to handle it without alarm, just by watching things more closely, the general public does not read that, they listen to the weather man on channel whatever.