Does anyone agree?

[sunnyday]

Does anyone agree with me that this may be an extremely quiet hurricane season? No scientific evidence--just a feeling that things may stay quiet thsi year.

[Eyewall]

Geez lets not start with this one again
same thing every year.... oh my this is gonna be slow...

[Cyclenall]

Does anyone agree with me that this may be an extremely quiet hurricane season? No scientific evidence--just a feeling that things may stay quiet thsi year.

No, I do not agree with that. I thought 2006 would be a very active year and look what happened there.

[Toadstool]

...just a feeling that things may stay quiet thsi year.

You just jinxed it!!!

[windstorm99]

I would have to fully disagree on this season being quite as most indicators point to an above average season as far as numbers are concerned.I would like to point out that june and july are not months to judge on how the season is going to end up.In a normal season its ususally quite now anyway until we get into the first weeks of august were a quick ramp up in activity starts.As far as steering currents are concerned over the past 2 months we have had persistent trofiness of the east coast of the united states which would tend to turn away tropical systems.Its all about trofs and ridges when a tropical cyclone is approaching.

Also one thing to keep in mind numbers predicted are not important as it only takes one tropical cyclone to ruin lives.Adrian

[stormchazer]

Does anyone agree with me that this may be an extremely quiet hurricane season? No scientific evidence--just a feeling that things may stay quiet thsi year.

It would be nice but I think the indicators this year are for more activity, unlike what occurred last year. We can all hope though!

[miamicanes177]

The best seasonal forecasters in the world (The CSU team) say this will be one of the worst hurricane seasons of all time with 17 named storms. According to Gray/Klotzbach...we will have 5 major hurricanes this season and there is an extremely high probability of 74% that at least 1 of those 5 majors will smash the US.

[cycloneye]

The difference between 2006 and this 2007 season is that El nino wont be around and that alone will guarantee that it wont be like the 2006 season.It's only July,a normally quiet month (Of Course July,2005 was very different).The meat of the season starts on August 15th so let's see by then how things stand in the Atlantic and then we can make our opinions on the season.But it's too early to make a judgement one way or another.

[alan1961]

Does anyone agree with me that this may be an extremely quiet hurricane season? No scientific evidence--just a feeling that things may stay quiet thsi year.

I'm in agreement with you sunny..i posted my thoughts in another thread

[HURRICANELONNY]

Everyone has an opinion and only one will be right. I think it will be a late season like the 90's. Most will come in August/Sept and even October. I'm sticking with 17 names. As for landfall. If the east coast trough keeps coming. Will be in luck. In Fact the GFS for what it's worth is showing a front for the end of the week:
The 12z GFS shows that this pattern may be short lived as the
upper ridge retrogrades west towards Texas as a large/unseasonably
strong upper trough/surface cold front dive across the eastern
U.S.. will not make any changes to the extended forecast for the
time being until models become consistent with this depiction.

[MiamiensisWx]

Everyone has an opinion and only one will be right. I think it will be a late season like the 90's. Most will come in August/Sept and even October. I'm sticking with 17 names. As for landfall. If the east coast trough keeps coming. Will be in luck. In Fact the GFS for what it's worth is showing a front for the end of the week:
The 12z GFS shows that this pattern may be short lived as the
upper ridge retrogrades west towards Texas as a large/unseasonably
strong upper trough/surface cold front dive across the eastern
U.S.. will not make any changes to the extended forecast for the
time being until models become consistent with this depiction.

I would take the GFS prognostication with a grain of salt. The cold bias is evident. The sfc front will not move south of Georgia. The long-range operational guidance overamplifies the trough. The Melbourne discussion offers a different tune.

THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE N FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK...
KEEPING THE MAJOR NORTH AMERICAN STORM SYSTEMS OVER THE NRN TIER
STATES. A LCL SPEED MAX OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL HELP SPIN UP A
WELL ORGANIZED LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z WED. SHORT RANGE
MODELS INDICATE IT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PULL A FRONTAL TROF
INTO THE DEEP S AS THE MID/UPR LVL FLOW EVOLVES INTO A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED POSITIVE PNA PATTERN. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN N OF THE CANADIAN BORDER...PROSPECTS FOR THE
FRONTAL TROF TO DISLODGE THE RIDGE AXIS ARE LOW.

[Berwick Bay]

Sunnyday, have you ever heard the comparison with baseball? You see baseball can seem like a slow game to many people, where not much happens for several innings. Actually during this time, a lot really is happening, its just that the players are making the plays their supposed to, making everything look easy, as they go through their motions in a rather routine way. But suddenly it all changes. An unexpected error, a walk in a critical situation, and now the whole balance of what had gone before is upset. The game takes on a completely different character, where all hell breaks loose. The tropics are something like this. One seemingly small but key ingredient in the mix is altered, (MJO, slight lessening of shear, slight increase of sea temps off African Coast, shifting of Bermuda High... I could go on), and now everything is upset, nothing is as it was before.

[alan1961]

Berwick, just a question for ya, or anyone else for that matter ( and you seem to be an educated guy and no disrespect to anyone else on here ) do you have any idea on why north west Europe especially the UK is having a torrid summer currently, i know this could go in another thread but would just like a quick answer if its possible, cheers

[cpdaman]

i think there is so much that we don't know ( or maybe just ) the uncertainty of nature makes predicting storms frequency 3 months out unforecastable altough people will try even if it was.

we say things like "well there is no el nino so there will be lower shear and more storms", but this science is in it's infancy, and while there is a correlation with el nino and reduced stroms and neurtral years and generally more activity , there is considerable potential for overlap as well as the possibility that the only time we can predict hurricane forecasts with a grain of accuracy is when we have a strong el nino at least so far as we believe we have, i bet there would be a few years (outliers) when we have increased activity and an el nino

[N2FSU]

sigh... season cancel

[Cyclone1]

Not pointing fingers to anybody in this forum, not losing temper. Just stating my opinion.
Anyway,

<rant>
This is proof that 2005 really raised expectations.

Now the scenario is like, "if conditions aren't like 2005, it'll be slow".

What I'm saying is, people tend to get the feeling that since 2005, any season with a lot less than 28 storms is inactive. But, 2005 was hyperactive. Like if a season had 14 storms, in contrast to 2005, it's considered slow. But it's really a well above average season. 2006 even, was NOT a slow year, it was climatologically average, but because it followed the seasons on steriods (04-05), it was felt to be way below average.


I believe we'll have an above average year this year, 14-16 storms, but not a hyperactive year like people kinda expect, 24-25 storms.

</rant>

That, my friends, wether I'm correct or not, is my longest post ever. I apologize.

[cycloneye]

Not pointing fingers to anybody in this forum, not losing temper. Just stating my opinion.
Anyway,

<rant>
This is proof that 2005 really raised expectations.

Now the scenario is like, "if conditions aren't like 2005, it'll be slow".

What I'm saying is, people tend to get the feeling that since 2005, any season with a lot less than 28 storms is inactive. But, 2005 was hyperactive. Like if a season had 14 storms, in contrast to 2005, it's considered slow. But it's really a well above average season. 2006 even, was NOT a slow year, it was climatologically average, but because it followed the seasons on steriods (04-05), it was felt to be way below average.


I believe we'll have an above average year this year, 14-16 storms, but not a hyperactive year like people kinda expect, 24-25 storms.

</rant>

That, my friends, wether I'm correct or not, is my longest post ever. I apologize.

Hey,you did fine.

[Opal storm]

sigh... season cancel

[TheShrimper]

Sunnyday, I do not know where you are from, but I trust that you reside in an area that has the potential to be impacted by tropical cyclones. Let me give you a little hint here. When you see a flagpole in your area displaying a red flag with black in the middle of it, it may answer your question. In the event that you see two of those waving on that same mast, you will be asking yourself, " Why did I even pose that question." It was the same question that arose in 1992, and the answer was revealed in late August of that year, much to the shock of the redidents of south Dade County and coastal Louisiana. Those same questions were answered in a fury. Now, did my response answer your question? For your planning sake, I hope it did. TheShrimper

[boca]

I don't agree, but the meat and potatoe's of the hurricane season is usually about six to eight weeks out of six months that I truely I'm concerned.June July, and the later half of October I watch out of boredom like right now.