Is Everyone Ready?

[Sean in New Orleans]

It's going to be more active than last year from everything I see. Will it be crazy? No. But, I see some punch in a few storms. The water is getting very warm. Again, as last year, East Coast and larger NE cities from DC to Boston need to be more wary. Is this fact...no. In conjunction with this forum, it is my amateur opinion, but, I've been watching for years. GOM? Personally, I think Florida is a given, but, I wouldn't rule out a possible Texas strike. The N. Central Gulf region is the least likely to get struck, although, a good tropical storm would be a blessing in August or early September to provide relief from HOT temperatures, which are also on the way for the Deep South in the coming weeks.....

[Berwick Bay]

Sean, it is time to get ready. The early and usually quiet "pre-season" of June and the first two thirds or so of July is rapidly drawing to a close. Also, I would tend to disagree with your belief that the N Central Gulf Coast will not be a hot spot. With all we went through in '05 (and really '04 too, with Dennis and Ivan), there's no reason to think that we won't again be the place to watch in '07. No reason at all, Sean. We've all had the luxury so far of being able to argue about administrative matters and "possible" tropical depressions. That time may be coming to an end sooner than we think.

[TS Zack]

I think North Texas Coast to Southwest Louisiana could see a strike. The persistent weakness that has kept them very wet across Texas shows no signs of moving out. This will cause hurricanes to gain latitude as they cross the Gulf. Large East Coast trough has now retrograded a bit, but still could send a few storms out to sea. However, it all depends on when and where they form.

[baygirl_1]

Well, we're as ready as we can be at this point in the season, I guess. Hurricane box has been replenished. We keep water on hand and the important papers are in the "go boxes." Last season was so nice: no evacuation at all. After 2 evacuations in 2005 alone, it was nice to have a rest. Who knows what 2007 has in store for us? I do know that jellyfish have already infiltrated Fowl River. We were at the family home down there over the weekend and my sister said she spotted some in there last week. Seems rather early for that. I remember seeing them in river in August, but I can't say I remember them in there around 4th of July. I guess that's another indication that the water is quite warm (of course, it also has to do with the salinity of the river being up due to lack of rain). I know warm water alone is not an indicator of a busy season. However, if a storm enters the Gulf, it will certainly have fuel to strengthen.
Just watchin' and waitin' now...

[Jagno]

NOOOOOOOOOOO, I'm going to Arbitration with State Farm in the morning to FINALLY get this Rita claimed finished so that I can rebuild my garage and apartment. Give me a couple of months and hopefully by then everything will be out of that darn storage container and in it's real home. Oh well, the floods last week got into the container anyway so whatever was left is surely ruined. Okay, I'm trying to roll with the flow here so go ahead and start without me. I'll catch up soon.

[beachlover]

Gulf waters off the P'handle in Gulf County is much cooler than '05 for 4th of July week and also same week in '04 -- almost too cold to swim! Ivan hit in '04 and Dennis in '05. '05 was our nightmare year but so far no reason so expect us to have an '05 repeat except it's too early to call. We are not seeing the temps we had in '04 and '05 for sure -- but it's early yet and water temps is just part of the picture. We're ready for "game on," but hoping for "game fish" for '07

[Sean in New Orleans]

Sean, it is time to get ready. The early and usually quiet "pre-season" of June and the first two thirds or so of July is rapidly drawing to a close. Also, I would tend to disagree with your belief that the N Central Gulf Coast will not be a hot spot. With all we went through in '05 (and really '04 too, with Dennis and Ivan), there's no reason to think that we won't again be the place to watch in '07. No reason at all, Sean. We've all had the luxury so far of being able to argue about administrative matters and "possible" tropical depressions. That time may be coming to an end sooner than we think.

Unless the troughs and fronts steer clear of the N. Central GOM, you can call this area safe, IMO. We just had a trough or weak front (whatever you want to call it come through the City of New Orleans in the last few days). This is virtually unheard of at this time of the year. If the pattern I'm witnessing continues, tropical systems will be steered East to Florida up the East Coast or (if it misses any troughs or weak fronts) could go to Texas. Personally, I don't see the pattern changing too much. It could, but, usually, by now, we would see no troughs or fronts moving through at this time of the year. The persistent recent low in Oklahoma that resulted in much Texas heavy rain is very telling. The patterns better change pretty quick, because, as strange as it may sound, in 7 to 9 weeks we will begin to see Fall patterns come back into play.

[southerngale]

I think North Texas Coast to Southwest Louisiana could see a strike. The persistent weakness that has kept them very wet across Texas shows no signs of moving out. This will cause hurricanes to gain latitude as they cross the Gulf. Large East Coast trough has now retrograded a bit, but still could send a few storms out to sea. However, it all depends on when and where they form.

[Andrew92]

The following post is NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My guess is that the steering patterns will be somewhat similar to 2006. This is not necessarily a good thing for the East Coast, however.

I keep reading posts that 2006 was a quiet year and that there was nothing significant. Yes, that's true. However, don't forget about Ernesto and how much a lot of people thought it was on its way to re-intensifying into a hurricane before striking NC. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but if the steering pattern is set up like last year's again, I will go for a hurricane following a similar path to Ernesto.

But wait, a hurricane? When Ernesto was only briefly a hurricane near Hispaniola, and otherwise a minimal tropical storm until striking NC? YES. Because last year was an El Nino and this year is not, plain and simple. If conditions are right, first Florida, and then NC could very well get hit by a C2 or C3 hurricane.

New England won't be out of the woods either. Even if they don't get hit head-on by a big hurricane, they could receive the remnants of my prescribed NC hurricane with some nasty results.

I am actually NERVOUS for the East Coast about a 2006-ish steering setup if it indeed happens.

-Andrew92

[cpdaman]

andrew good points u brought up

and 2n'd are all east coast trof's equal (obviously not) and are the troughs we have been witnessing lately penetrating as far SE as they were last year

and two wasn't there a weakness around 60 w last year, we dont have that do we? just trying to learn

[Andrew92]

andrew good points u brought up

and 2n'd are all east coast trof's equal (obviously not) and are the troughs we have been witnessing lately penetrating as far SE as they were last year

and two wasn't there a weakness around 60 w last year, we dont have that do we? just trying to learn

Well I'm no pro, so I'm not going to give you a really in-depth answer to your questions. Maybe someone like MW, Derek, or wxman57 can help you out. I don't remember exactly how far the troughs penetrated other than that it was far.

I'm not entirely sold on the weakness at 60 W, but even if there isn't, there's always a couple that recurve far out to sea. Even 2004 saw Danielle, Karl, and Lisa curve way out there. In 2005, Irene, Maria, Nate, and Philippe stayed way out there as well. By the same coin, even if there IS a weakness, something usually slips under and causes trouble. 1995 was a year in which every CV storm recurved away from the U.S. However, Florida still got hit by Erin and Opal. In 2000, nearly everything stayed way out to sea, except for a failed attempt by Debby and a successful Keith. And like I said, last year, while nearly everything was re-curving, Ernesto still had some trouble to cause.

What I think some people forget (I hope I'm wrong) is that Florida and NC were VERY LUCKY with Ernesto that it was an El Nino and that all the shearing conditions prevented it from growing stronger. If you take out the El Nino episode of the last year and Ernesto follows the same path, I think it could have hit Florida and NC as a C2, maybe a C3 for NC actually.

-Andrew92

[marcane_1973]

I have noticed one thing so far this summer that has me worried about the East coast. The troughs have been dipping down from the North much more instead of coming in from the usual West to East. That is the worst case scenerio if this holds coming into the heart of Hurricane season for the East Coast and especially the Carolinas. Its like a magnet when The troughs drop down from the North. It will allow more Hurricanes to get pulled up North or a Northwest motion making more landfalls possible. If this pattern does not change much going into late August and September the East Coast could be the bullseye for much of the 2007 Huricane season.

[Opal storm]

I think it depends on where the "hot spot" is going to be for development this season. If storms start forming farther east in the Atlantic then the EC might be in trouble, but if everything forms close to home (kinda like in 2005) then it's going to more of a Gulf coast/Florida season.

[storms in NC]

I think it wwill be more of the GOM year. With just a few on the eastcoast Fla to NC.

[Dionne]

Well....I don't know if this is even worthy of speculation......but we sure have experienced an increase in gulf moisture in the last 5 days. The pop up thunderstorms during the heating of the day has brought us alot of needed ground moisture. Short duration storms training northeast. These little storms sure make the humidity in the late day a difficult ride. We're all carrying towels. Anyone need any veggies? We have an abundance. It's give away time.

[Recurve]

Good to see a post from Sean.

It's been unusual here. I don't know if it's large scale or will persist. The Keys have had the most rainy late May-June in years. More like Miami. Usually we're under an Atlantic high with no landmass convection-sea breeze collisions as in Dade-Broward-PB.
This year it's been daily convection blowups on instability and showers on outflow boundaries, troughs and lows, a tropical wave came through, repeated periods of northerly winds.

For us it's timing and development area. With a firm high in place, tracks NW of the Greater Antilles are bad. When troughs/fronts come, tracks around western Cuba are bad.

There's only a narrow slot for recurving storms to hit us without hitting Cuba first. But Atlantic storms are easily driven here over open water by a high. That's my amateur understanding of patterns so I know when to run. Strong high, look out for an Andrew track. Fronts coming, look out for Wilma. Tropical storm drifting through -- watch out for tornadoes.

I'm trying to be ready.