Houston/Galveston area hurricane chatter...

[Johnny]

It's been a very long time since I have seen the power of a hurricane (Alicia). Sure, we've been brushed a couple of times and have had a few tropical storms but nothing compared to Alicia. Are any of y'all Houstonians feeling a little uncomfortable? I'm actually feeling a bit too comfortable.lol

My wife and I have been wanting to purchase a beach cabin down along the coast but I just can't do it. In the back of my mind I keep thinking that one day soon a big one is going to hit anywhere from Surfside to Galveston and I'd hate to have a house down there when that happens. We go down to Galveston pretty often and the growth on the west end of the island (not protected by the seawall) is crazy. Huge beach house mansions are all over the place. When a cat.3 or stronger hurricane hits the area, they will be destroyed IMO. So are y'all pretty relaxed this year or are you sleeping with on eye open?

[jasons2k]

Hey Johnny,

I'm definitely "sleeping with one eye open" this year for sure.

For me, it's not really the fact that it's been so long since we've had a direct hit. I don't buy into the "overdue" stuff as it's completely unscientific (although psychologically it can make you uneasy thinking about it).

I'm more concerned this year due to the current circumstances. I think the TX coast has an above-average risk this year from everything I've read so far and the way the summer pattern has been evolving.

You are right about the West End. It's a disaster waiting to happen. There was a website posted here last year that was from an erosion study. In it were timeline comparison aerial photos of the West End and Jamaica Beach for the last 50 years or so. The amount of erosion since the 1960's is staggering. You can easily extrapolate that out to very little left within a few decades, or when the next "big one" hits. Most of those McMansions will be overtaken by the GOM in our lifetime.

I wouldn't invest there for anything. It's just a matter of time.

[Sjones]

For some reason, I feel extremely vulnerible this year...

[southerngale]

Well, I'm a little east of Houston/Galveston, but I've been sleeping with one eye opened since Rita hit. I can't help but have a fear of going through that again, but at the same time, I know that the chances of getting hit again anytime soon are slim.

And yes, I know that any future hurricanes don't know that Rita was just here a couple of years ago, but still, ya know...

[srainhoutx]

After selling our business in 2000, we moved to the Lower FL Keys. Af first we rented a wonderful waterfront home. Having boats, we loved the water and it is truely a sight to see along the reef there. We bought our 1st home Key West on the only canal in town to have our boat at our finger tips. Things were fine until 2004! What a wake up call, but no damage that year. We bought an ivestment property in January 2005, did a quick fix up and flip (5 month working everyday) and sold it, but still had our wonderful canal front home constructed in 1999. 2005 brought many troubles with Hurricanes in the Keys. Dennis stripped the tropical vegetaion. House was put on the market and the real estate market was crashing. Katrina made a very unexpected visit to the Lower Keys. Water up to my thighs, but no water intrusion to the house. Did I mention that it was stilted. Rita came and went with no affect other than we have to get off these islands. While traveling for a month in our motorhome, Wilma came calliing. We actually were in New Braunsfels watching the weather for any report from Key West, Marathon etc.. We could not reach any of our nieghbors via cell phone or land lines for close to 36 hours. We were headed East on I-10 when THAT call came. All ofour neighbors were awakened at 2:30 AM with the first surge. Another surge followed for some on the FL Bay side of the island chain around 7:00 AM. Although our losses were nothing, (1 new car /1 new truck) our neighbors lost everything. We were only able to sell to a hungry greed investor do to no water intrusion. We have former neighbors that still have not sold thier homes after 2+ years on the market. We will never again live with That Stress. NW Harris County is fine for us.

[jasons2k]

I hate to say this but if Rita had hit as forecasted on Wednesday Night's forecast, many of the homes in NW Harris County would have had some sort of structural failure, possibly total structural failure as the homes here are not built to withstand those winds. Once the garage door is breached, the rest of the home can quickly collapse. That's why even though we live in South Montgomery county, we were prepared to leave the next morning if the forecast had not changed. And we live in a "well built" house.

[Ptarmigan]

I have a bad feeling about this year too. I think we could even get hit by two major hurricanes.

[rainman31]

If you can afford the insurance I would not worry about it, a lot of people live near the water it's just a matter of getting insurance. I live in a condo near clear lake and our association fee has tripled since Rita barely brushed us.

[flashflood]

I hate to say this but if Rita had hit as forecasted on Wednesday Night's forecast, many of the homes in NW Harris County would have had some sort of structural failure, possibly total structural failure as the homes here are not built to withstand those winds. Once the garage door is breached, the rest of the home can quickly collapse. That's why even though we live in South Montgomery county, we were prepared to leave the next morning if the forecast had not changed. And we live in a "well built" house.

I completely agree. I own a second home in NW Harris County east of 45. Most of the houses have very weak and wide garage doors. The roofs there are definitely not built to withstand major Hurricane winds. The houses that I checked before I bought mine did not have Hurricane straps, reinforced gable ends, nailed shingles, and had HUGE spaces between trusses. Nobody that I know of has hurricane shutters there, though some have plywood for their windows. A high end major is gong to create debris missiles everywhere, a massive pile of destruction for miles will be the landscape for months.

Interestingly, my homeowners insurance there is only 1/3 of what I pay here.

[Swimdude]

As a Houstonian myself, I have several things to say:

1) Houstonians on Storm2K are NOTORIOUS in predicting a "bad" hurricane for Houston "this year." When Rita almost came onshore, every Houstonian was cheering, "Yes! We were over-due! I knew it!" But not so. Rita gave Houston cloudy skies and 40-50 mph winds... Oh, and a bunch of empty grocery stores, impossibly jammed freeways, and an incredible shortage of gasoline... But that's another story.

2) Do I think a hurricane will hit Houston this year? Honestly, no. Do I have anything to base that on? No. We have been safe from a major hurricane since 1983. I know, I know, Allison was awful, but that was because the weather patterns decided to allow Allison to sit on top of us for a week, go away, and come back awhile longer for a second visit.

3) The hype, the hype! The media is bad enough. Relax... This year is just as likely to be a "big year" for Houston as last year was, and the year before, and the year before that.

Don't flip out, just be prepared.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

unfortantly, the majority of the people in the houston galveston area have not gone though a major one, and all these close calls are putting more doubt and people will get that "cry wolf" syndrome and say it will not come this way it will turn into louisiana or go south into mexico, one day that day will come weather this year or next or 10 or so years down the road, just hope we're all prepared.

[vbhoutex]

I don't think anyone is "flipping out". People are expressing their feelings, which they have for whatever reason.

I don't buy into the "overdue" either. Mother nature is so unpredictable there is no way to truly predict or even guess where the next BIG one is going to hit.

Rita was a scare and hopefully a wake up call for the entire Houston Metro area or I sure hope it was!!! I, like Jason, was ready to hit the road at 1 am in the morning which I had set as our cut off time. I had a place to go to and knew the back roads to get there. I was using every source I had to base my decision on and finally felt comfortable with the decision to stay sometime around 3 am.

As stated above, the biggest problem besides flooding (if the Major hurricane is a slow mover) will be debris missles and the fact that even the best built homes in the Houston area(except along the immmediate coast)are not required to be built to withstand winds over 110 mph. If a CAT4 or 5 hits "correctly", even with the degradation of the winds due to friction, etc. many parts of the metro area will see winds, especially in gusts, well in excess of the codes required here. I doubt that there are many garages in this entire area that are reinforced for a hurricane and that will be where many of the failures will be or begin.

Don't even get me started about living or owning on a barrier island!! I must stop there!!

Hopefully we are all prepared for whatever comes our way this year. Do I think we will get "hit"? If the patterns continue to hold like they have been I do think the chances are pretty good, but patterns can and do change and that could either make our chances "better" or "worse".

[Johnny]

I've been reading the opposite. I thought the percentages of the Texas coast being hit by a storm this year were pretty low?

You are right about the erosion on the west end of Galveston jschlitz. Back on July 14th/15th, 2003, Galveston was brushed by hurricane Claudette. Before this I believe the city of Galveston had brought in tons of sand to help build up the beaches on the west end and Claudette washed it all away. She also took out the Flagship Fishing Pier and she completely destroyed the San Luis Pass Fishing Pier which has now been rebuilt. This was all from a cat. 1 storm skirting the coastline of Galveston. The west end of Galveston took a pretty good beating from Claudette from beach erosion.

With these facts on hand, the beach front of Galveston took a pretty good hit from a cat. 1 storm that didn't even make landfall on the island. A cat. 3 or better storm hitting Galveston Island and up through Houston? Man, it's gonna be very very very bad. You mine as well kiss the west end of the island good bye for a good while, if not the entire island IMO.

Now to Rita. Weather wise, it takes alot to get me nervous but Rita had me pretty stressed out. As pointed out in this thread, if she would of hit where she was forecasted to, the west end of Galveston would of been devastated, the Houston Metro area would of been hit very hard and even in my neck of the woods up here in Conroe would of been knocked on its tail. I've got pine trees all around my house and I would of suffered greatly. She was a powerhouse of a hurricane and she would of been the one to knock Galveston into a major tail spin and then some.

IMO, it's not a matter of IF we get a major hurricane, it's a matter of WHEN. From what I have read, we are going to be in an active hurricane cycle for a good while so I do believe it will be sooner than later (as I sleep with one eye open).

[Johnny]

Here's a write up in the Chronicle this morning on Rita.

http://www.chron.com/content/chronicle/special/05/rita/

[Extremeweatherguy]

Based on the overall pattern, I think the chances of a hit are slightly better than normal, so everyone should be on guard. As for us seeing the "big one" though, I don't think we will ever really know when that will occur until it actually happens. Let's just hope this is not the year for that.

[jasons2k]

I've been reading the opposite. I thought the percentages of the Texas coast being hit by a storm this year were pretty low?

Most call for an above average risk here in '07. A notable exception has been Houston's Weather Research center - they are forecasting a below-average risk for the TX Coast. But another local shop, ImpactWeather, has been on record in the Chronicle stating we have an above-average risk in '07. Most of the handful of agencies that issue landfall predictions (Colorado State, AccuWx, etc.) have indicated an increased risk for the Texas Coast this season.

That said, I don't put much stock into those seasonal forecasts. A lot can change over the course of the season and for now, those seasonal forecasts should be regarded as experimental. It all depends on the synoptic setup when we get a storm to form and who knows if a trough will be digging towards the GOM in mid or late September. That said, the current pattern evolution does concern me as as we head to the heart of the season I will be watching very closely. Let's just hope a major doesn't form in the Caribbean and head towards the Yucatan Channel. If we saw that kind of scenario any time soon I'm afraid Texas would be in big trouble.

[dwg71]

Be prepared, but dont get suckered by the hype. The media is just waiting for a storm in the Atlantic Basin to start its "in depth team coverage of ....."

Houston/Galveston is no more/no less likely than any other area from Brownsville to Maine.

I absolutely get sick at the ridiculous local coverage of the weather in Houston.

[Acral]

Don't forget the media anxiously awaiting those "action shots" of a palm tree blowing in the wind...

[jdray]

Don't forget the media anxiously awaiting those "action shots" of a palm tree blowing in the wind...

Those are the best, or the ones of the media leaning into the wind when a group of locals walk by in tshirts and shorts and wave at the camera.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I also like it when the "on-the-scene" (non met) reporters try to take wind measurements. One time I was watching as they stood in confirmed hurricane force winds (by the NWS) and they only reported winds of "33mph". lol. They never seem to know how to take an accurate wind reading.