lower numbers later this season

[weatherwoman]

was just reading accuweather and joe is saying that he thinks there will be lower numbers when the new advisory comes out.

[hial2]

The numbers change from month to month..I wouldn't put too much emphasis on them..Wunderground's Dr Masters has weekly outlooks, and Colorado State's hurricane guru has monthly outlooks.
The speed in which nature changes environmental conditions,only God really knows what's going to happen..but predictions are fun to read and talk about. In my opinion,tha's really all they're worth..

[boca]

The numbers change from month to month..I wouldn't put too much emphasis on them..Wunderground's Dr Masters has weekly outlooks, and Colorado State's hurricane guru has monthly outlooks.
The speed in which nature changes environmental conditions,only God really knows what's going to happen..but predictions are fun to read and talk about. In my opinion,tha's really all they're worth..

True couldn't agree more, I still think it will be busier than 2006 due to the absence of El Nino.

[Stormcenter]

The numbers change from month to month..I wouldn't put too much emphasis on them..Wunderground's Dr Masters has weekly outlooks, and Colorado State's hurricane guru has monthly outlooks.
The speed in which nature changes environmental conditions,only God really knows what's going to happen..but predictions are fun to read and talk about. In my opinion,tha's really all they're worth..

True couldn't agree more, I still think it will be busier than 2006 due to the absence of El Nino.

Yeah "maybe" by one or two more storms but not much more based on how things look now.
I tell you what I couldn't be happier if things just stayed quiet the entire season. Only
time will tell. By the way, I do think the numbers may be lowered when the next outlook
comes out. Just my 2 cents.

[HURAKAN]

The problem with 2006 was not that it had only 10 storms but the problem with 2006, which is because people regard it as a slow season was that no hurricane made landfall in the US. After 2004 and 2005, the stardards for 2006 were too high to reach.

Take 1985, 11 storms, but 8 made landfall in the US (6 of them were hurricanes). People would consider that a busy season. But in the number of storms 1985 and 2006 were not very different from each other.

1985: 11/7/3
2006: 10/5/2

Better yet, look at the maps:




In 1985 most of the storms' tracks are between 65W & 95W, while in 2006 are between 45W & 65W. Isn't the number of storms, but how many hit you is going to determine how active or inactive people perceive a season to be.

[Stormcenter]

The problem with 2006 was not that it had only 10 storms but the problem with 2006, which is because people regard it as a slow season was that no hurricane made landfall in the US. After 2004 and 2005, the stardards for 2006 were too high to reach.

Take 1985, 11 storms, but 8 made landfall in the US (6 of them were hurricanes). People would consider that a busy season. But in the number of storms 1985 and 2006 were not very different from each other.

1985: 11/7/3
2006: 10/5/2

Better yet, look at the maps:




In 1985 most of the storms' tracks are between 65W & 95W, while in 2006 are between 45W & 65W. Isn't the number of storms, but how many hit you is going to determine how active or inactive people perceive a season to be.

Very good post!

[benny]

was just reading accuweather and joe is saying that he thinks there will be lower numbers when the new advisory comes out.

Too early to say that. Let's get all the data from July in and see how it shakes out. SSTs are cooler in the tropical Atlantic than the past 3 years... but the tropical Pacific is shading toward La Nina which makes the tropical Atlantic SSTs generally less important on the average.

[Cyclone1]

If the 2007 season had one more storm than 2006, it would (technically) still be above average. 2006, was almost climatologically exactly average except for the absence of landfalls. It also seemed like a way below average year because it followed the seasons on steroids. But this year has no El Nino, if fact it has a La Nina kicking up sometime in October. It may peak late this year. Don't predict the rest of the season before the end of July. 2004 is a perfect example.

[Aric Dunn]

again all speculation... need to watch short term changes that may lead into more substantial long term trends.. hear say .. its pointless at the moment.. there is not enough meteorological data anywhere out there that says one way or the other that for sure will have a busy or slow season.. only unfolding events will determine that .. and will help make forecasts further out.. its just to early to make and sure fire answers

[CajunMama]

awww aric...let them speculate. There's not much going on right now.