Invest 97E

#1 Postby **HURAKAN** » Thu Jul 12, 2007 8:30 pm

13/0000 UTC 12.5N 109.0W TOO WEAK 97E -- East Pacific Ocean

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED
WITH THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO. SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN

Chacor · #2 Postby **Chacor** » Thu Jul 12, 2007 8:49 pm

Not official on FNMOC/NRL.

benny · #3 Postby **benny** » Thu Jul 12, 2007 8:53 pm

Really quiet out there for mid-July. We've gone 43 days since the last tropical storm-- that's a huge amount of time. The only comparable break I can easily find in the satellite era before 1 Sept is in 1972-- 57 days. Otherwise I think it is #2 all-time

Cyclenall · #4 Postby **Cyclenall** » Thu Jul 12, 2007 11:29 pm

There is no invest on either site and those images don't come up. There is an area to watch though which could become an invest later on. Change the title to prevent confusion, thanks.

#5 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jul 13, 2007 4:47 am

Up now.

Chacor · #6 Postby **Chacor** » Fri Jul 13, 2007 4:48 am

Wahey!

#7 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jul 13, 2007 5:04 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
400 AM PDT FRI JUL 13 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE WITH THE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO
MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED ABOUT 1200 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

#8 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jul 13, 2007 7:04 am

Not looking too good at the moment!!!

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 13, 2007 7:48 am

WHXX01 KMIA 131232
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1232 UTC FRI JUL 13 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP972007) 20070713 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070713 1200 070714 0000 070714 1200 070715 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.7N 110.0W 14.4N 112.3W 15.2N 114.6W 16.2N 117.0W
BAMD 13.7N 110.0W 14.4N 112.1W 15.0N 114.2W 15.5N 116.2W
BAMM 13.7N 110.0W 14.5N 112.2W 15.2N 114.6W 16.0N 116.9W
LBAR 13.7N 110.0W 14.4N 112.7W 15.3N 115.6W 16.1N 118.8W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070715 1200 070716 1200 070717 1200 070718 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.9N 119.2W 18.0N 123.9W 18.7N 128.6W 19.6N 132.7W
BAMD 15.7N 118.3W 15.8N 123.0W 15.8N 127.3W 16.4N 131.2W
BAMM 16.7N 119.3W 17.9N 124.3W 18.9N 129.4W 20.1N 134.0W
LBAR 16.8N 121.9W 18.1N 128.1W 19.4N 133.2W .0N .0W
SHIP 44KTS 43KTS 40KTS 31KTS
DSHP 44KTS 43KTS 40KTS 31KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.7N LONCUR = 110.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 12.5N LONM12 = 107.5W DIRM12 = 289DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 11.8N LONM24 = 104.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

#10 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jul 13, 2007 8:13 am

13/1200 UTC 14.4N 109.9W T1.0/1.0 97E -- East Pacific Ocean

Increasing. Cosme's next train. Already bored at the station!!!

#11 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jul 13, 2007 12:34 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM PDT FRI JUL 13 2007

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER...IS CENTERED ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST.

ANOTHER AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS CENTERED ABOUT 1250 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SLOW DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI

#12 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 13, 2007 1:47 pm

WHXX01 KMIA 131827
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1827 UTC FRI JUL 13 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP972007) 20070713 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070713 1800 070714 0600 070714 1800 070715 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.3N 111.0W 15.1N 113.4W 15.9N 115.9W 16.8N 118.2W
BAMD 14.3N 111.0W 14.8N 113.3W 15.2N 115.6W 15.4N 117.7W
BAMM 14.3N 111.0W 14.9N 113.5W 15.7N 115.9W 16.2N 118.2W
LBAR 14.3N 111.0W 15.2N 113.6W 16.2N 116.5W 17.0N 119.5W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 34KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070715 1800 070716 1800 070717 1800 070718 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.2N 120.4W 17.9N 125.2W 18.1N 129.9W 18.9N 134.0W
BAMD 15.3N 119.9W 15.0N 124.7W 14.6N 128.6W 14.6N 132.3W
BAMM 16.7N 120.6W 17.5N 125.6W 17.9N 130.5W 18.5N 135.0W
LBAR 17.6N 122.7W 18.9N 128.6W 19.7N 133.1W 21.3N 135.8W
SHIP 40KTS 34KTS 30KTS 24KTS
DSHP 40KTS 34KTS 30KTS 24KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.3N LONCUR = 111.0W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 13.1N LONM12 = 108.9W DIRM12 = 297DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 12.2N LONM24 = 106.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

#13 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jul 13, 2007 3:41 pm

13/1800 UTC 14.4N 110.7W T1.5/1.5 97E -- East Pacific Ocean

#14 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 13, 2007 4:39 pm

A Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert has been issued for 97E.

#15 Postby **AnnularCane** » Fri Jul 13, 2007 4:54 pm

Not bad at all. Maybe this one will actually get a name.

#16 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Jul 13, 2007 4:57 pm

WTPN21 PGTW 132130
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
090 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.1N 110.4W TO 15.8N 116.4W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 131800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.3N 111.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 131643Z AMSU-B
IMAGE SHOW CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION OVER AN IMPROVING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 131630Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS
20 KNOTS OVER THE NORTH AND EASTERN QUADRANTS OF THE CIRCULATION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. BASED
UPON IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND PERSISTENT CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 142130Z.//

#17 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 13, 2007 5:35 pm

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR
TOMORROW AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS
COOLER WATERS ON SUNDAY.

From the 4:00 PM PDT Tropical Weather Outlook.

#18 Postby **AnnularCane** » Fri Jul 13, 2007 5:41 pm

cycloneye wrote:THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 600 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT OR
TOMORROW AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS
COOLER WATERS ON SUNDAY.

Oh.

#19 Postby **CrazyC83** » Fri Jul 13, 2007 5:59 pm

Looks like this might become TD5-E.

#20 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Jul 13, 2007 7:40 pm

WHXX01 KMIA 140030
CHGE77
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0030 UTC SAT JUL 14 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (EP972007) 20070714 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070714 0000 070714 1200 070715 0000 070715 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.4N 112.0W 15.1N 114.3W 16.0N 116.8W 16.7N 119.0W
BAMD 14.4N 112.0W 14.8N 114.2W 15.1N 116.2W 15.2N 118.2W
BAMM 14.4N 112.0W 15.2N 114.4W 15.9N 116.7W 16.6N 119.0W
LBAR 14.4N 112.0W 15.0N 114.4W 15.7N 117.1W 16.5N 120.1W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 37KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070716 0000 070717 0000 070718 0000 070719 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.3N 121.6W 18.1N 126.3W 18.8N 131.2W 20.0N 135.4W
BAMD 15.2N 120.3W 15.3N 124.9W 15.4N 129.0W 15.8N 133.0W
BAMM 17.3N 121.5W 18.7N 126.8W 19.9N 131.7W 21.0N 135.1W
LBAR 17.1N 123.2W 18.4N 129.1W 19.5N 133.6W 21.0N 135.4W
SHIP 43KTS 43KTS 31KTS 21KTS
DSHP 43KTS 43KTS 31KTS 21KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.4N LONCUR = 112.0W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 13.7N LONM12 = 110.0W DIRM12 = 299DEG SPDM12 = 12KT
LATM24 = 12.5N LONM24 = 107.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

No TD yet.

Invest 97E

Invest 97E

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