VERY INTRESTING. Model still developing a Low Pressure in G

[Weatherfreak14]

This is very intresting, the CMC is showing in 180hrs a tropicial system forming in the bahamas. Though very unlikely, the Weather Channal has metioned this on the Last Tropicial Update. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007071212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[gatorcane]

Personally I think the situation warrants attention. The CMC has been accurate at times. It is early but a hurricane for SE Florida at the end of July is not that uncommon.

I bet this thread has the potential to break this season's record given the number of people in SE Florida on this board...

You should edit the title to use "off" instead of "of" ....

[windstorm99]

This is already being discussed in another thread.

[Weatherfreak14]

yes i do agree this does need to be monitered. But very unlikely to happen, have to watch the other models in the upcoming runs.

[windstorm99]

Personally i need more model agreement before i begin to buy into this...

[benny]

Personally i need more model agreement before i begin to buy into this...

The Canadian model reguarly tries to destroy Florida. I think it has done so many times on the 00z run in the past few days. It really isn't a credible tropical model-- just slightly ahead of the NAM.

[Ptarmigan]

I would wait for another several days. Should keep an eye on it.

[Toadstool]

It's already being discussed here : http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=96008&start=0

[Category 5]

Personally I think the situation warrants attention. The CMC has been accurate at times.

It nailed Katrina.

[flwxwatcher]

The wave is something to keep an eye on of course but so far the CMC is the lone ranger in having a Tropical System hitting Florida next week. The CMC has a tendency to overdo waves.(like the last wave that came into Florida) It will be interesting to watch the progress of this wave and too see if any other models come aboard:):)

[jlauderdal]

Personally i need more model agreement before i begin to buy into this...

The Canadian model reguarly tries to destroy Florida. I think it has done so many times on the 00z run in the past few days. It really isn't a credible tropical model-- just slightly ahead of the NAM.

considering all of the Canadians that visit south Florida in the winter im surprised they want to destroy it.

[cpdaman]

to me it looks like it closely coincides/is the tropical wave in the central atlantic which is difficult to see on this animation but travels west into E caribean before it rounds the SW part of the ridge (turns to the nw) and forms a low (on the norther part of the wave axis) near puerto rico than moves WNW/NW into se bahamas into Western-central bahamas.

the wave progression on the map appears to me to be barely visible (except in every other 6 hour interval up until 66 hours

24 hours not much
48 hours wave few hundred miles east of windward islands
72 hours over windward islands
90 hours northern part of wave near puerto rico
108 hours forming low over eastern part of dominican republic
126 hours entering SE bahamas
144 hours western central bahamas

what do you think this may be obvious but i dunno and i think this title should be edited to say tropical system because it doesn't look like hurricane intensty on model

[Blown Away]

http://meteocentre.com/models/modelsgem_e.html#GLB00
The model shows the low crossing SFL into the Gulf, deepening a little, then moving towards the LA/Miss coast. This track is not that uncommon for late July/early August. At least it gives us something to watch. It will be interesting to see how favorable the upper levels are. We went from almost everything bombing out during 2005 to almost everything getting sheared during 2006.

[wxmann_91]

Personally I think the situation warrants attention. The CMC has been accurate at times. It is early but a hurricane for SE Florida at the end of July is not that uncommon.

I bet this thread has the potential to break this season's record given the number of people in SE Florida on this board...

You should edit the title to use "off" instead of "of" ....

It nailed Katrina.

The CMC has been correct 1 times out of 10000. Guess I should start taking the model seriously

Note that I'm not attacking you, but instead, the idea of believing in something if it has not withstood the test of multiple trials, even if it has withstood the test of a prominent single trial.

[MiamiensisWx]

I think the model picks up the prospects based upon the current wave east of the Lesser Antilles. Interestingly, the southwest Atlantic looks more conducive for cyclogenesis. Upper-level shear is hostile, but the upper-level longwave trough is moving away from the Florida peninsula. This progression would leave a weak trough or low in the vicinity. This scenario would lead to decreased shear, and some convergence would linger over the Bahamas and Caribbean Sea. Look at this loop.

I wouldn't anticipate development, especially because of the progged unfavorable environment ahead of the next continental system. I would discount the CMC. Simultaneously, it will be interesting to observe the changes as the wave axis approaches the Lesser Antilles. The low-level steering flow would carry the wave axis to the west. Despite these facts, I don't expect any development.

[TheShrimper]

Jim, are they that far south on your side of the state? We have a small mix over here in SW Fla. I thought thier southerly trek stopped around Ormond and Daytona. Have witnessed the Maple Leaf flying ontop of Old Glory in many communities up there.

[boca]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Sorry I don't believe it, if the rest of the models jump on it then its creditable but until then no. The way the troughs have been pushing off the east coast even if it were to develop would push whatever this is poleward.

[SouthFloridawx]

Looking at the 850mb vorticity from the FSU output, specifically... CMC, GFS and UKMET; I'm seeing vorticity in the same general vicinity. GFS and UKMET are obviously not showing, as closed off low, but they are showing vorticity in the area... That along with watching those models, would leave me to believe that some type of convective event will occur in the Bahamas and move towards the S. FL. Penn.

Just because the other models aren't showing something exactly like the CMC, doesn't mean they are right either. I like to look for similarities, and see if they all show something somewhat similar. Perhaps the other models will follow suit, but I don't think that CMC should be discredited totally, as it did show days before a couple of storms that we already had this year.

Daniel, you said that it appears that it's initializing a system that is currently in the Lesser Antilles, but if you take a look at the following link you can see that CMC develops the wave back towards 40W currently.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Sorry I don't believe it, if the rest of the models jump on it then its creditable but until then no. The way the troughs have been pushing off the east coast even if it were to develop would push whatever this is poleward.

It is interesting to note that, I think the blocking ridge that moved eastward from the the Eastern US (which was parked there for quite some time) is now east of the US. I would imagine that this feature would continue to move eastward.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

[wxmann_91]

Also, forgot to mention this, the CMC often has a poleward and/or eastward bias. This is probably weak enough to enter the Caribbean. Forecast 850mb winds around 132hr are way too strong to allow for any type of vertical stacking.