Basin beginning to tease

[Berwick Bay]

July 16th--nothing imminent, but convection returning with avengance to the Carib and Gulf. Churchill said this is not the "beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning". Perhaps what we are seeing are signs that the early "preseason" June-July tropical period is rapidly approaching its end, "the end of the beginning". Speaking mainly now here of the GOM and Carib. I'm not setting my mind on anything in particular,(ULL still in Carib, and deep trough in S Tex affecting GOM), yet for the first time in weeks, both the Gulf and Carib are beginning to look like they are phasing into a more active period.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Moisture and convection has increased in areas of the Atlantic
Basin as a consequence of the entrace of the wet phase
of the MJO into the basin. Things will get
cranking within the next 2-3 weeks I believe.

[jaxfladude]

July 16th--nothing imminent, but convection returning with avengance to the Carib and Gulf. Churchill said this is not the "beginning of the end, but the end of the beginning". Perhaps what we are seeing are signs that the early "preseason" June-July tropical period is rapidly approaching its end, "the end of the beginning". Speaking mainly now here of the GOM and Carib. I'm not setting my mind on anything in particular,(ULL still in Carib, and deep trough in S Tex affecting GOM), yet for the first time in weeks, both the Gulf and Carib are beginning to look like they are phasing into a more active period.

Moisture and convection has increased in areas of the Atlantic
Basin as a consequence of the entrace of the wet phase
of the MJO into the basin. Things will get
cranking within the next 2-3 weeks I believe.

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
This season needs to be one of the quietest and weakest hurricane seasons ever recorded, the flip side of 2004-2005....

[canegrl04]

Its so quiet in the Atlantic.Things should start hopping soon,or the season will look more like a dud. We should see at least a TD form before the end of July

[Grease Monkey]

Nothing much has happened for a while. I say increased hurricane activity cycle cancel!

[CrazyC83]

I think we're going to go into rapid-fire mode in the last week of July, and see two storms develop in a short period of time. One will become a hurricane, although not major.

As for August, my prediction is four named storms and two hurricanes forming in the month - both major.

[Berwick Bay]

Yes Crazy, I too think a major transition is occuring right now! As I stated in Cyclone Eye's predicition thread for the occurence of the first hurricane, I look for tropical cyclone formation between July 26 and July 29 just south of the central Cuban Coast. To be specific, at about 21N and 79W. That thread asked about hurricanes, and that was the info which I posted. I go out on a limb with a specific time and PLACE for a storm. I'm definitely looking for a significant storm in this locale between the 26th and 29th of this month.

[Frank2]

This morning's METEOSAT visible shows a very quiet Atlantic, so, no tease there - since the season is 2 1/2 months old (since the first maximum actually takes places on May 5), it's been very quiet - I don't count the A system, since it was a extratropical gale center more than anything, and, the B system was a well-sheared mess, so, so far it's the same as 2006 - thankfully...

The other day, TWC or NBCWP showed a map of SST's in the Eastern Pacific, and, it showed only a slow change or way or the other (it was neither cooler or warmer over a few weeks), and, the continued strong shear in the Caribbean is still a sign the the Pacific temps are not back to normal, so...

Frank

[Berwick Bay]

Frank, you may very well be right. Perhaps the basin is still within its "quiet mode" of the past several weeks. But I'm thinking that perhaps we are seeing a transition. Just looking at today's overview WV image for the western basin, here's what I see.
a. The second tropical wave in a row is about to make an impact in the Lesser Antilles. The last two actually look like mid-season waves entering the Carribean.
b. Cloudiness and storms (and more importantly I think, increasing moisture content) has been added to the central west Carribean due to an upper level low.
c. The far western GOM remains disturbed because of upper level troughing and low pressure to its west and north.

No immediate development expected with any of these systems, but taken together as a whole (which I tried to point out in this thread), they may represent a transition into that prime part of the hurricane season, that so many of us have been expecting.

[Sanibel]

There's definitely a touch more moisture cooking up in the basin. The season is definitely sending signals of juicing up. To me the WGOM action is talking canes later on from the look of it. 'Fact this BOC convection could kick on - but probably won't. It is a chunk of EPAC Mexican monsoon trough that kicked over to GOM. If the big ULL swirl over the Atlantic off north Florida were in better conditions I might watch for it to drill down - but it probably won't due to lingering unfavorability. Caribbean was TUTT divergence shear.

' Couple of weeks I'd say.

[Agua]

Nothing much has happened for a while. I say increased hurricane activity cycle cancel!

[Ed Mahmoud]

"I'm not a meteorologist, nor do I play one on TV".


I think we get to August.


Prediction: If the season is way above normal- it'll be blamed on man-made global warming. If it is way below normal, only 3 or 4 storms, it'll be blamed on global warming. If it has a normal number of storms, but some American city gets a 1900 Galveston Storm, a 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, a Camille, a Hugo or an Andrew- it'll be because of Global Warming.


Near-Normal 2006 Hurricane Season Blamed on Global Warming

[abajan]

"I'm not a meteorologist, nor do I play one on TV".


I think we get to August.


Prediction: If the season is way above normal- it'll be blamed on man-made global warming. If it is way below normal, only 3 or 4 storms, it'll be blamed on global warming. If it has a normal number of storms, but some American city gets a 1900 Galveston Storm, a 1935 Labor Day Hurricane, a Camille, a Hugo or an Andrew- it'll be because of Global Warming.


Near-Normal 2006 Hurricane Season Blamed on Global Warming

LOL... Prof. Ivorytower's words in the last paragraph make absolutely no sense whatsoever.

[x-y-no]

LOL... Prof. Ivorytower's words in the last paragraph make absolutely no sense whatsoever.

Ummm ... you do realize that was a satire piece, right?

[Andrew92]

Wonder what the National Enquirer has to say about global warming! Er, on second thought......

Anyway, this season may be 2006 so far, but it also is 2004 so far in a way. 2004 had no activity so far, and if there would have been any early on, I suspect it would have been like Andrea and Barry, either subtropical or very disorganized. I know one met says he thinks this year will be like 2004 (forget which one but it was one who posts here) in that the start will be slow but then there will be a large increase in activity in August. I also think the shear in the Caribbean is just normal for this time of year and that it will eventually subside.

-Andrew92

[flwxwatcher]

Wonder what the National Enquirer has to say about global warming! Er, on second thought......

Anyway, this season may be 2006 so far, but it also is 2004 so far in a way. 2004 had no activity so far, and if there would have been any early on, I suspect it would have been like Andrea and Barry, either subtropical or very disorganized. I know one met says he thinks this year will be like 2004 (forget which one but it was one who posts here) in that the start will be slow but then there will be a large increase in activity in August. I also think the shear in the Caribbean is just normal for this time of year and that it will eventually subside.

-Andrew92

I believe WXMAN57 is the Met you are thinking of.. and your right, Not many storms form this time of the year most seasons because of unfavorable conditions. Lets see what August brings:):)

[Andrew92]

Thanks. I thought it was Wxman57, but I also wondered if Mike Watkins said that.

-Andrew92

[gatorcane]

This season is very normal so far. Remember the peak is not until Sept 10th so we have a ways to go. Too many of us expect 2004-2005 like activity at this point.T his type of activity rarely ever happens so I hope you all didn't get used to it. The two storms that formed should hardly have been classified. They were absolutely pathetic. Afternoon storms in Florida product worse conditions. .

[Berwick Bay]

Yes, I hear many of you talking about August and pretty normal so far. But action may come a little earlier than many think. Dr. Gray used to give an update at around Aug 7th. That was the real beginning of the prime tropical season. But I think we may see something before then. Like I said, this looks to be a transition time right now (next 7-10 days). I wouldn't be surprised (and have stated that we might see something in the last few days of July). Thinking July 26th - 29th time frame.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I caught a boat out of the Unocal docks in Berwick, LA, out to a shallow water drilling barge near Marsh Island.