90L Invest dead or not?

[Guest]

Is still hanging in there - not much to look at this morning - any comments from the experts? What are the conditions like for its future?

Will we have TD8 soon?

Patricia

[Steve H.]

I will slowly evolve into a tropical storm. Much more slowly than I first thought. Structure looks good, but no deep convection at this time, but getting into warmer waters. Surprised that the models do very little with this (tropical genesis). Staying at fairly low latitude; will be trouble down the road. Cheers!!

[Rainband]

Trouble meaning it will hit land in SA or trouble for someone else??? Like in the United States

[wxman57]

It looks like it peaked yesterday afternno (Dvorak 1.5) as the circulation tightened up and convection begain to build near the center. As I said yesterday, it appeared to slow to 15 mph during that period. But its forward speed picked up and convection died out overnight. It certainly won't be a TD today, and maybe not on Saturday. I think it will start to develop when it reaches the weakness in the ridge to the north (where it had been forecast to turn north). At that point, it should slow considerably, allowing for development.

[cycloneye]

By any means it is dead but still it has a good structure but lacks deep convection but as it moves more west it will encounter more warmer waters and when it slows down it will have the chance to develop however it will be a slow proccess.

[Steve H.]

And how about that area north of Puerto Rico? Looks to me like a circulation is developing....anyone else see that? Cheers!!

[chadtm80]

Noticed the convection there, but did not notice any spin, but ill go look again now that you have mentioned it

[Guest]

Ok if it moves along the ridge to the weakness will it go more westerly or will it go north?

Tell me if I am asking stupid questions !

[Rainband]

Ok if it moves along the ridge to the weakness will it go more westerly or will it go north?

Tell me if I am asking stupid questions !

I was gonna ask that too. lol..I think if it's still weak it will continue west..if it was stronger it would go poleward ie north..Is that right guys??? :?

[Guest]

Thanks Jonathon - couldn't remember the what if's.....another wait and see game on this wave!!!!

One thing this year I am learning patience!

[Rainband]

Thanks Jonathon - couldn't remember the what if's.....another wait and see game on this wave!!!!

One thing this year I am learning patience!

Me too.. patience seems to be the rule..this year..I never realized Claudette did so much damage..I read otherHD article 100 Million.wow!!!!!! I am glad it wasn't worse...you guys really dodged the bullet so to speak :o

[vbhoutex]

Ok if it moves along the ridge to the weakness will it go more westerly or will it go north?

Tell me if I am asking stupid questions !

I was gonna ask that too. lol..I think if it's still weak it will continue west..if it was stronger it would go poleward ie north..Is that right guys??? :?

You are correct Johnathan! All the models have recently been showing it missing the weakness in the ridge which would indicate that it may stay a weak TS, if it makes that status soon, until it is past the weakness which is around 50W. Also after 50W conditions are even more favorable for development. AS ALWAYS WAIT AND SEE!!!

[Rainband]

Thanks DAVID Guess I am learning something here..as Ticka said patience is the key this season!!! Like you said we will wait and see :o

[Johnny]

Now we got the picture laid out before us so to speak. When this convection rolled off of Africa, I figured it would develop fairly quickly and start a jog towards the North and do a little dance with the fish. Well, that's not happening and as we know, alot of the convection disappeared overnight. To tell you the truth, I don't think this is a good thing. With it staying weak, it has a greater chance in effecting the U.S. mainland. As vbhoutex pointed out, when it gets past 50W, conditions for development will improve. I won't even compare this one with TD#6. This one is far from over. My opinion of course.

[OtherHD]

Not dead...just in a coma. It's about to enter a drier airmass, and it should slow or halt development until it gets closer to the US. That is...if shear isn't a problem. Like I said before, the models* don't develop this again in the western Atlantic. IMO that lowers the odds a bit.

*YES I know about models and how they suck sometimes. But chances are, if no models forecast development, it won't develop. This was the thing with TD6. Most of the models lost it...and it poofed.

[ColdFront77]

If the steering is east to west at all levels, why would the strength of the system have to do with moving more westerly versus a northerly component?