Tropical Wave in Western Caribbean

[CourierPR]

Is there something brewing there? The activity looks better organized tonight.

[Aric Dunn]

its Just the ITCZ and a tropical wave.. it would have a long way to ... we would need to see persistent convection.. (concentrated) just keep an eye on it.. cause you never know

[caneman]

Well CMC wants to devlop it again. I know CMc. It develops it then take it North of the Islands and recurves out to sea. See what happens.

[DESTRUCTION5]

One thing about this wave..It has the most Moisture ive seen all year so far.!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[HURAKAN]

Where the tropical wave is located at the moment the wind shear is not that bad for development, nonetheless, just a little bit to the west it gets very hostile.

[storms in NC]

Now this maybe be a good one to keep a eye on. Out to sea I don't think it will. But who knows till it becomes something first. But it may come a interest in a day or 2. JIMO

[Berwick Bay]

Nice blow up of convection this morning over the Windward Islands, nicest I've seen so far with this system. Yes, I think we are definitely in our transition now to the more active part of the season. I'll be looking further west next week toward 21N and 79W which is just south of the central Cuban coast for some type of tropical cyclone activity. Anyway here is the late morning IR of the Antilles System.

[storms in NC]

from the NHC

THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY A SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE REGION NEAR
36N50W AND EXTENDS TO OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO.

[Weatherfreak14]

Nice blow up of convection this morning over the Windward Islands, nicest I've seen so far with this system. Yes, I think we are definitely in our transition now to the more active part of the season. I'll be looking further west next week toward 21N and 79W which is just south of the central Cuban coast for some type of tropical cyclone activity. Anyway here is the late morning IR of the Antilles System.

Yea, i will be looking at that area all through tis hurricane season, and in 2 weeks time the GFS model is showing some more activity coming off the africian coast.

[storms in NC]

if you look you will see that it is getting some dry air into it. It shouldn't last that long not really that much to go though.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

[stormchazer]

I am not sure this will develop into anything, but the WV image does show that the enviroment is being primed with the dry pockets beginning to moderate. Still a ULL in the western Carb. but things are starting to look juicey for development down the road.

[caneman]

CMC 12z once again showing development with this area and recurvng NW of PR.

[storms in NC]

I am surprised that the Fl people haven't jumped on this. I would if I lived in Fl.

[ronjon]

CMC 12z once again showing development with this area and recurvng NW of PR.

lol from HPC Discussion on the latest CMC spin up:

THE CANADIAN...ALWAYS ENTERTAINING WITH TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS...DEVELOPS A TROPICAL CYCLONE-LIKE FEATURE THAT MOVES DUE NORTH FROM EAST OF THE BAHAMAS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH THROWS ITS SOLUTION INTO MAJOR DOUBT SINCE NONE OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE HINTS AT A TROPICAL FEATURE AND THE ROUNDY TROPICAL CYCLONE PROBABILITY DIAGRAMS DO NOT SUPPORT IT. CHI VELOCITY POTENTIAL STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES OFF THE CANADIAN SHOW FAVORABLE 200MB DIVERGENCE BUT UNFAVORABLE LOWER CONVERGENCE. OTHER MODELS SHOW UNFAVORABLE CONDS.

[windstorm99]

Next thing you know the CMC will predict a cat5 in boston...I consider the CMC model no better then the NAM when it comes to tropical cyclone development.

Note:Its done very poor on genesis so far this season.

[storms in NC]

why do they have this wave going west when it is not. take a look.
this is 24 hour http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

this is 72 hours http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

Just trying to understand.

[DanKellFla]

The CMC has this as a storm in 72 hours.

[x-y-no]

I am surprised that the Fl people haven't jumped on this. I would if I lived in Fl.

Canadian model. Doesn't have a clue regarding tropical development.

[Steve]

Canadian isn't as bad as it's being portrayed here. For instance, despite the last genesis it had (which wasn't going to happen), there was activity in the area where it had something progged. When you go to the GEM 4 panel overviews, sometimes it's pretty good (including its ensemble runs) at picking out areas of lower and higher pressure. It's not a great model, but it is sometimes a harbinger.

>>THE CANADIAN...ALWAYS ENTERTAINING WITH TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS...DEVELOPS A TROPICAL CYCLONE-LIKE FEATURE THAT MOVES DUE NORTH FROM EAST OF THE BAHAMAS INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WHICH THROWS ITS SOLUTION INTO MAJOR DOUBT SINCE NONE OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE HINTS AT A TROPICAL FEATURE

While there isn't other tropical genesis, if you run the 12z UKMET and Navy NOGAPS, both are showing areas of lower pressure off the east coast of Florida. For my money, there's probably going to be some tropical energy in that vicinity in a few days as per the end of the runs. But agreed, no hurricane is going to hit the Gulf of Maine next week. LMAO

Steve

[Nimbus]

The ULL in the western caribbean won't be there by the time this wave gets there. Usually storms don't spin up in the eastern caribbean but it almost looks like a ridge is building west with the wave in the water vapor loop. The models think the northern end of the wave will develop but who knows?