Area's of interest in Western Atlantic

[Aric Dunn]

As most of you have seen the system that was in the eastern carrib a north of the islands is no longer impressive.. the only thing that remains that you might wan to watch is the norther half of the wave that has broken off and is just north of Hispaniola.. this area has a small circulation .. very weak (and insignificant) and lacking in any convection because its moving into a more stable environment( but that may change).

so in short .. what we were watching yesterday is just about done for.. although the convection has migrated north with the ULL TC development is not likely there... but what you should watch is further west either the southern part of the wave in the Caribbean as it moves into the western carrib or.. IMo the best bet is just north of hispanola.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

loop it at medium zoom 12 images or so..

this is a image of the area... but do a loop .. .
or this loop http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-rgb.html












oh well .. but really i dont think much of it.. but figured i would mention it.. it is still something to watch i guess..

[jasons2k]

Did we really need a new thread for this?

And FWIW the area north of Hispaniola is inconsequential. The piece to watch is the wave itself, south of hispaniala, next week as it moves towards Mexico/TX.

[Aric Dunn]

Did we really need a new thread for this?

And FWIW the area north of Hispaniola is inconsequential. The piece to watch is the wave itself, south of hispaniala, next week as it moves towards Mexico/TX.

both to the north and south is the wave.. just split between hispanola.. and yeah. i think we needed a new thread . because people are still watching the convection north of the island .. in the other thread..

[Steve]

It is typical for waves in La Nina and some la Neutral to split. A lot of the time, the wave energy will continue trudging off to the west or west-northwest while a piece of the northern energy will be sheared off or get entrained on the eastern side of an Upper Level Low. If the system has any moxy, look for the southern end to pick up some convection further down the road. Many of the models are hinting at some type of surface ripple near the LA Coast 5 days out. Whether this is the remants from the Texas low, wave energy or both remains to be seen.

Steve

[Aric Dunn]

It is typical for waves in La Nina and some la Neutral to split. A lot of the time, the wave energy will continue trudging off to the west or west-northwest while a piece of the northern energy will be sheared off or get entrained on the eastern side of an Upper Level Low. If the system has any moxy, look for the southern end to pick up some convection further down the road. Many of the models are hinting at some type of surface ripple near the LA Coast 5 days out. Whether this is the remants from the Texas low, wave energy or both remains to be seen.

Steve

Im not sure if there is any correlation between waves splitting and la nina or el nino .. from my experience over the years... i have seen waves split like this all the time..

[boca]

The southern part of the wave is the part to watch since that will be heading towards Texas/Mexico(like they really need the rain) like Jschlitz pointed out before. The northern part will likely continue getting sheared and pulled north by the ULL and pushed out to sea by the trough building in the east.

[Steve]

>>Im not sure if there is any correlation between waves splitting and la nina or el nino .. from my experience over the years... i have seen waves split like this all the time..

So have I. But it seems like it happens more in the neutral and la nina seasons. Maybe it's just because I watch the upper troughs split across the CONUS and sometimes there are waves doing the same thing at the same time, but I admit it's anecdotal and just based on casual observation.

Steve

[Aric Dunn]

>>Im not sure if there is any correlation between waves splitting and la nina or el nino .. from my experience over the years... i have seen waves split like this all the time..

So have I. But it seems like it happens more in the neutral and la nina seasons. Maybe it's just because I watch the upper troughs split across the CONUS and sometimes there are waves doing the same thing at the same time, but I admit it's anecdotal and just based on casual observation.

Steve

i guess its possible.. you should look into more.. maybe there is something there..

[Sanibel]

I saw the swirl north of Hispaniola too. It is possible that is the surface feature associated with the disturbed convection yesterday - but it's proximity to the ULL discounts any development. So, yes, it is worth a new thread for reasons of showing how storms work - but, no, it should just blow away due to the very hostile, 2006-like environment around it. It could also be a synoptic eddy, though, as well.


Admit bust - next system.

[Blown Away]

Accuweather:

Tropics Still Quiet, but Showing Signs of Life
The Atlantic Basin remains tranquil at this time, but that may change over the next few days.

One wave we are tracking is located near 67 west, south of 21 north. This wave is beginning to split, with the southern portion moving westward, while the northern portion of the wave is moving slower and to the northwest. The northern portion is producing several clusters of thunderstorms, mainly north of the Leeward Islands. While this wave remains disorganized, some slow development is possible over the next few days and the situation will need to be watched. Showers and thunderstorms will move across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola later today. Moisture from the wave could also reach South Florida and the Bahamas early next week.Another tropical wave in the central Atlantic along 40 west, south of 21 north, is moving west at 15-20 knots. Very little convection is found with this wave as dry air and African dust have overtaken it. Development at this time is not expected.

An upper-level area of low pressure between Bermuda and Puerto Rico is not becoming better organized and should get absorbed northward into an upper-level trough that will move to the East Coast over the weekend. It may tap into the same energy along the northern portion of the tropical wave currently over the eastern Caribbean, and could cause a surface storm to form off the East Coast later in the weekend or early next week. Regardless of whether or not the disturbance develops further, heavy rainfall and gusty winds will impact Bermuda over the weekend.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Rob Miller

[Aric Dunn]

Accuweather:

Tropics Still Quiet, but Showing Signs of Life
The Atlantic Basin remains tranquil at this time, but that may change over the next few days.

One wave we are tracking is located near 67 west, south of 21 north. This wave is beginning to split, with the southern portion moving westward, while the northern portion of the wave is moving slower and to the northwest. The northern portion is producing several clusters of thunderstorms, mainly north of the Leeward Islands. While this wave remains disorganized, some slow development is possible over the next few days and the situation will need to be watched. Showers and thunderstorms will move across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola later today. Moisture from the wave could also reach South Florida and the Bahamas early next week.Another tropical wave in the central Atlantic along 40 west, south of 21 north, is moving west at 15-20 knots. Very little convection is found with this wave as dry air and African dust have overtaken it. Development at this time is not expected.

An upper-level area of low pressure between Bermuda and Puerto Rico is not becoming better organized and should get absorbed northward into an upper-level trough that will move to the East Coast over the weekend. It may tap into the same energy along the northern portion of the tropical wave currently over the eastern Caribbean, and could cause a surface storm to form off the East Coast later in the weekend or early next week. Regardless of whether or not the disturbance develops further, heavy rainfall and gusty winds will impact Bermuda over the weekend.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Rob Miller

sounds about right..
still being steered by the low levels

[Aric Dunn]

I would say as it enters the Southern bahamas.. over the day or two (maybe sooner) we many have something a little more interesting.. watch..

the Low that was forming North of hispanola still show signs that its continuing to do so .. and light shear is just to its west.. .. the stable environment i was talking about earlier does not seem to be as pronouced as i thought..

[Sanibel]

While the streamers of convection peeling from it do suggest energy, the shear is obviously so strong that it most likely won't form. I'd say it was under strong shear with the ULL stripping it of all convection.

[Aric Dunn]

While the streamers of convection peeling from it do suggest energy, the shear is obviously so strong that it most likely won't form. I'd say it was under strong shear with the ULL stripping it of all convection.

that is true.. but lighter shear is just down the road.. and unlike everything further east.. i put my money this more than that because it has a surface low forming ... carribean .. wont happen .. anytime soon.. this is the only player in the near term..

[Aric Dunn]

the 12z GFS try's to develope the area im talking about near the SE bahamas.. moves it north then SW..http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nw ... loop.shtml

the UKmet 12z.. also want to form something near the SE bahamas.. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

so does the CMC .. also brings something from near the SE bahamas..
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

im waiting on the 12 nogaps ..



and does the WRF. http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

[Aric Dunn]

something definitely trying to get going north of Hispaniola and near the SE bahamas

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/pr/loop-rgb.html

[storms in NC]

Can someone please tell me about this ULL out by the Bahamas. it seem to be moving to Fl. If some one have time to tell me how the ULL forms and goes away or if the do?I know it is a upper level low and it has something to do with the jet stream at one time. But can they like go poof or do they just move around? Sorry for a dumb question
But just trying to put things together here with the wave and the Ull.

Deb

[Aric Dunn]

Can someone please tell me about this ULL out by the Bahamas. it seem to be moving to Fl. If some one have time to tell me how the ULL forms and goes away or if the do?I know it is a upper level low and it has something to do with the jet stream at one time. But can they like go poof or do they just move around? Sorry for a dumb question
But just trying to put things together here with the wave and the Ull.

Deb

yeah they are a cut off low that was or is normally part of the larger scale jet stream patterns... but often the get cut off and retrograde back west as the jet stream move away.. they are also called TUTTS or tropical upper tropospheric trough..

and they can stay around a long time.. but they will eventually either weaken or get picked up by the next dip in the jet stream

[Aric Dunn]

the 12z GFS try's to develope the area im talking about near the SE bahamas.. moves it north then SW..http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nw ... loop.shtml

the UKmet 12z.. also want to form something near the SE bahamas.. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

so does the CMC .. also brings something from near the SE bahamas..
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

im waiting on the 12 nogaps ..



and does the WRF. http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi ... =Animation

and to add to the 12 z nogaps.. has a weak system near the SE Bahamas the shoots north .. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

[MiamiensisWx]

I cannot see a sign of justification for development. This upper low is non-tropical. Mid-level inversion is too strong. That factor is a negative sign. Convection can't consolidate. Where do you spy a low-level circulation? The sfc low is non-existant. Look here. Dry air continues its westward surge. SAL is encroaching upon the islands. If convection refired, I would give better chances. The trough will kill this system's chances. The favorable diffluence has vanished - cross-flow westerlies are strong. The entire basin is hostile.