Invest 97L near Bermuda

[DESTRUCTION5]

Rumor or Fact?

[StormWarning1]

It is a fact.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[cycloneye]

Is a fact.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[Cyclone1]

Uhh... Looks like a fact! Wow! I was just about to comment how this storm had no chance, and BOOM, 97L. I'm a litte blindsided. But hey.... 97L's here! Let's party!

[miamicanes177]

finally...we deserve this one. It's been too long

[DESTRUCTION5]

Wow..The must be pretty confident some sort of LP will form from this..

[Cyclone1]

Wow..The must be pretty confident some sort of LP will form from this..

Well, there's already a sfc trof. So It's not unlikey that one will.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This season is almost a copy of 2006. Kind of weird.

[Cyclone1]

This season is almost a copy of 2006. Kind of weird.

Uhh, no? A preseason storm and a storm on June first, then mearly a three month lull? That's pretty original.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

One weak subtropical system(Andrea) then another weak and sheared system Barry. In which case is interesting but in all reminds me of the 70s,80s season while looking through the records. Who knows what this season could do, but based on latest shear over the Atlatnic being above normal. The tutt is 5-10 knots of shear stronger then its supposed to be. The Eastern Atlatnic eastly shear is also 5 knots stronger then it supposed to be. These factors are going to limit this season. It would not suprize if once into August things turned like it did in 2004. But there is no data as of now to think it will. There was no data in 2004 to think it would; so its a guest.

[Jam151]

This season is almost a copy of 2006. Kind of weird.

Uhh, no? A preseason storm and a storm on June first, then mearly a three month lull? That's pretty original.

The lull won't even be two months for another 1-2 weeks.

[Cyclone1]

This season is almost a copy of 2006. Kind of weird.

Uhh, no? A preseason storm and a storm on June first, then mearly a three month lull? That's pretty original.

The lull won't even be two months for another 1-2 weeks.

Oh... Hah! I'm an idiot.

[fci]

Uhh... Looks like a fact! Wow! I was just about to comment how this storm had no chance, and BOOM, 97L. I'm a litte blindsided. But hey.... 97L's here! Let's party!

Wow, are we a bored bunch of weather-watchers.

Excitement over an Invest.

Remember they are about the lowest form of "storm" (I use the term very loosely).

Oh well, an area to track even if it is destined to be a fish if it EVER develops anyway.

A few weeks from now when the season is in full swing, we will scoff at even talking much about "Invests"......

[HURAKAN]

[Cyclone1]

I think its the further north one. It's looking pretty decent on colorized IR.

[Opal storm]

[Recurve]

Is there anything at the surface yet? Or is this just ULL with some mid level?
Would it likely be a (partly) baroclinic rather than purely tropical system?

See anything that would keep it from being a fish?

[Weatherfreak14]

O wow. Pretty suprised to see this, well for right now,it does earn the right to be called 97L i guess, by the way it looks on the IR SAT.

[Recurve]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2007
[snip]

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC ALONG 32N73W 29N76W 29N80W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE FRONT FROM
24N-29N BETWEEN 75W-80W. ONE DOMINATE 1033 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 39N41N PRODUCING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS JUST N OF THE AREA
NEAR 33N65W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM THIS CENTER IS
PRODUCING WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 25N-30N
BETWEEN 60W-67W...AND FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 58W-61W. FURTHER
S...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR
22N68W. A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N40W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 23N33W.

$$
FORMOSA

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0016 UTC MON JUL 23 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972007) 20070723 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070723 0000 070723 1200 070724 0000 070724 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 33.0N 63.0W 35.4N 62.9W 37.6N 62.8W 39.4N 62.3W
BAMD 33.0N 63.0W 34.6N 63.1W 35.8N 63.2W 36.9N 63.3W
BAMM 33.0N 63.0W 34.9N 63.3W 36.5N 63.5W 38.0N 63.6W
LBAR 33.0N 63.0W 34.5N 63.0W 35.9N 63.1W 37.2N 63.3W
SHIP 30KTS 33KTS 35KTS 37KTS
DSHP 30KTS 33KTS 35KTS 37KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070725 0000 070726 0000 070727 0000 070728 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 41.0N 60.7W 41.9N 53.4W 40.7N 44.0W 38.5N 34.7W
BAMD 37.8N 63.5W 39.0N 62.6W 38.2N 63.7W 40.9N 65.0W
BAMM 39.3N 63.4W 40.9N 59.8W 39.4N 56.2W 39.9N 56.7W
LBAR 38.1N 63.0W 39.4N 61.0W 38.7N 57.7W 38.6N 55.1W
SHIP 39KTS 44KTS 37KTS 22KTS
DSHP 39KTS 44KTS 37KTS 22KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 33.0N LONCUR = 63.0W DIRCUR = 15DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 31.8N LONM12 = 63.4W DIRM12 = 16DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 30.6N LONM24 = 63.8W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1018MB OUTPRS = 1019MB OUTRAD = 105NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Here are the first model plots for 97L.