WSI revises 2007 forecast

[margaritabeach]

"The season will bring 14 named storms, of which six will become hurricanes and three will become major hurricanes, WSI said in its revised outlook. WSI had previously expected 15 named storms of which eight would become hurricanes and four would become major hurricanes."

http://www.reuters.com/article/scienceNews/idUSN2442542020070725?feedType=RSS&rpc=22&sp=true

[philnyc]

"The season will bring 14 named storms, of which six will become hurricanes and three will become major hurricanes, WSI said in its revised outlook. WSI had previously expected 15 named storms of which eight would become hurricanes and four would become major hurricanes."

http://www.reuters.com/article/scienceNews/idUSN2442542020070725?feedType=RSS&rpc=22&sp=true

"WSI's Crawford added that wind conditions due to the lack of an El Nino event were less conducive to formation of tropical storms."

Who is this guy?!?!? If by "wind conditions" he means shear, the lack of an El Nino is more conducive to formation. Am I missing something?

[cycloneye]

I dont know who this guy is,but I wonder if the big experts will downgrade some the forecast numbers in early August and I am talking about CSU,NOAA and TSR.

[flwxwatcher]

I have a feeling that was a mistake by the editor . I did find this statement from him interesting.

"We feel the general threat to the western Gulf is reduced slightly, with a corresponding increase in the threat to the eastern Gulf and Florida," Crawford said.

[Aric Dunn]

they just want some 15 mins of fame.. so they are doing the oppisite as everyone else.. saying weird things
never heard of them anyway.

[jasons2k]

I made the same editorial mistake myself, call it "weather dyslexia", by calling La Nina "El Nino" in my origianl May outlook...could've just been an oversight.

But the lessened threat to the Western GOM...I don't see where he's getting that from...

[philnyc]

they just want some 15 mins of fame.. so they are doing the oppisite as everyone else.. saying weird things
never heard of them anyway.

Hey Aric,
WSI is the company that makes the weather graphics software that all of the TV and cable stations use. I'm currently interning at a NYC cable station weather department, and they're teaching the software to me. But to be honest, I didn't know that WSI was issuing forecasts. I'll have to ask my friends when this happened, although I assume other people on this board probably know who they are and a lot more about them...

[philnyc]

I have a feeling that was a mistake by the editor . I did find this statement from him interesting.

"We feel the general threat to the western Gulf is reduced slightly, with a corresponding increase in the threat to the eastern Gulf and Florida," Crawford said.

I think you're right. Sounds like they misquoted him. Even an amateur in tropical meteorology knows the El Nino stuff...

Also, that other statement makes sense, because the Jeff Masters/GFS forecast of 2 weeks ago is not bearing out. The Bermuda high is not extending into the eastern U.S., but rather the extant pattern of a trough in the east seems to be continuing. If it does, any Cape Verdes that approach Florida will be turnrd northward as they approach. That would lessen the risk to the western GOM, and maybe the eastern GOM as well, depending on how deep and how persistent the trough is. Think about it - Charleston SC had a dewpoint of 49F yesterday afternoon! That's almost unheard of in July.

[GraysonDave]

WSI is a well respected forecaster with lots of clients in the energy biz.

[philnyc]

WSI is a well respected forecaster with lots of clients in the energy biz.

Are they the same ones who make the WSI software that the media uses?

[cpdaman]

seasonal forecasts mean practically nothing....they have proven to be almost worthless in regards to hurricane forecasting ...even when they come out july 24

sorry not impressed , even if they said 20 storms, i would say ....the same thing

[GraysonDave]

seasonal forecasts mean practically nothing....they have proven to be almost worthless in regards to hurricane forecasting ...even when they come out july 24

sorry not impressed , even if they said 20 storms, i would say ....the same thing

I agree, especially when they get to revise them as the season progresses.

[GraysonDave]

WSI is a well respected forecaster with lots of clients in the energy biz.

Are they the same ones who make the WSI software that the media uses?

Yes, I believe so.

[philnyc]

WSI is a well respected forecaster with lots of clients in the energy biz.

Are they the same ones who make the WSI software that the media uses?

Yes, I believe so.

OK, I just checked. They are one and the same. 70 to 80%, if not more, of the weather graphics you see on TV, such as the weather channel, CNN, or your local news, comes from them. I hate to admit I didn't know they were issuing forecasts now. Believe me, this is not an endorsement - it's just what I'm learning.

P.S. I agree with you guys that long range forecasts are mostly still a joke. BUT, Colorado State and NOAA are gradually developing a decent track record on the number of hurricanes/storms expected per season, and that makes sense. All of the indicators, like MJO/El Nino, shear, SSTs, MLAEJ and trade wind strength are for real, and forecasters/climatologists will get better at this over time. The science this is founded on is quite solid.

[NDG]

Think about it - Charleston SC had a dewpoint of 49F yesterday afternoon! That's almost unheard of in July.

It may not mean anything just yet, back in '04 the eastern US also experienced a troughy pattern all the way 'till early August, when Charleston SC experienced a record low of 59 deg and dewpoints in the 40s on August 7th & 8th, then a few days later Charley hit FL, and then you know the rest. So the pattern can still change, which I believe it already started, a strong Bermuda ridge setted up just NE of Bermuda, how strong? just look at this last trough, it hit the brakes on the east coast and is now retrograding, so I think little by little the ridge will come closer to the US east coast, something similar to '04, IMO.

[Stormcenter]

seasonal forecasts mean practically nothing....they have proven to be almost worthless in regards to hurricane forecasting ...even when they come out july 24

sorry not impressed , even if they said 20 storms, i would say ....the same thing

I agree, especially when they get to revise them as the season progresses.

Doesn't everyone seem to do this? I mean Gray and NOAA revise their forecasts as the season progresses so why can't they? I mean come on now lets be fair here. I personally don't put any weight on season predictions.

[Stormcenter]

Think about it - Charleston SC had a dewpoint of 49F yesterday afternoon! That's almost unheard of in July.

It may not mean anything just yet, back in '04 the eastern US also experienced a troughy pattern all the way 'till early August, when Charleston SC experienced a record low of 59 deg and dewpoints in the 40s on August 7th & 8th, then a few days later Charley hit FL, and then you know the rest. So the pattern can still change, which I believe it already started, a strong Bermuda ridge setted up just NE of Bermuda, how strong? just look at this last trough, it hit the brakes on the east coast and is now retrograding, so I think little by little the ridge will come closer to the US east coast, something similar to '04, IMO.

Yeah maybe you're right but I wouldn't bet the house on it.

[philnyc]

Think about it - Charleston SC had a dewpoint of 49F yesterday afternoon! That's almost unheard of in July.

It may not mean anything just yet, back in '04 the eastern US also experienced a troughy pattern all the way 'till early August, when Charleston SC experienced a record low of 59 deg and dewpoints in the 40s on August 7th & 8th, then a few days later Charley hit FL, and then you know the rest. So the pattern can still change, which I believe it already started, a strong Bermuda ridge setted up just NE of Bermuda, how strong? just look at this last trough, it hit the brakes on the east coast and is now retrograding, so I think little by little the ridge will come closer to the US east coast, something similar to '04, IMO.

Hi NDG,
That's kind of what's being indicated right now. The GFS has the current pattern remaining, which is not good for the east coast and Florida, but better for the Gulf, but ONLY for Cape Verde types. Look at the Bermuda high from July 1st to 19th for (1) the 1968-1996 average, (2) the 2004 season, and (3) the 2007 season:
PLEASE NOTE THAT THE SCALE IS NOT TOTALLY CONSISTENT FROM ONE MAP TO THE OTHER! IT IS DIFFERENT BY A FEW MILLIBARS, SO CHECK THE SCALE WHEN COMPARING.

(1) Climatological average 1968-1996 (nose sharp into the GOM):


(2) The 2004 season (July 1 to July 19) (nose sharp into Florida/Cuba):


(3) And this season, 2007, from July 1 to July 19th (nose sharp into the Bahamas):


MANY (notice I didn't say ALL) CV type storms coming from the eastern Atlantic will not recurve if this pattern holds, but will tend to recurve over or just east of Florida.


BTW, here is last year's Bernuda High from July 1 to July 19th, when storms tended to recurve off the east coast (nose broad and off the east coast):


The current BH config is closest to 2004. But any meteorologist worth his salt would tell you there's a whole lot of other factors involved. All I'm saying is that so far for July, the BH looks most like it did in 2004. We don't know that it might not change significantly in the next few weeks. All we can do is keep comparing and watching...

[philnyc]

BTW, I'm ALMOST willing to bet the rent that Jeff Masters is about to back off of his last forecast, since the global models (particularly the GFS which he quoted in his last forecast) have backed off of the Bermuda high nosing further westward into the southeast and/or east. The latest GFS ensembles show troughing in the eastern U.S. to continue, i.e. they have backed off of their mid-July predictions. All I can say is persistence is hard to beat in the middle of a season. Here it is:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/rtwx/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html

Now it's saying the BH will extend further westward later in August. When a model forcasts a major pattern change, and it doesn't happen, and then it keeps moving the pattern change further into the future, that's not a sign of high confidence...

And this is probably why WSI decided to get a jump on Masters and forecast more tropical cyclones in the eastern Gulf rather than central or western Gulf. i.e. they are hedging their bets because the GFS is starting to back off of its mid-July Bermuda high forecast.

[GraysonDave]

seasonal forecasts mean practically nothing....they have proven to be almost worthless in regards to hurricane forecasting ...even when they come out july 24

sorry not impressed , even if they said 20 storms, i would say ....the same thing

I agree, especially when they get to revise them as the season progresses.

Doesn't everyone seem to do this? I mean Gray and NOAA revise their forecasts as the season progresses so why can't they? I mean come on now lets be fair here. I personally don't put any weight on season predictions.

Oh, yeah, I agree. My comment goes for them as well. And there's nothing wrong with doing it. As conditions change the forecast changes.

Luckily I did not bet my clients' money on the original forecasts.