Gulf Of Mexico Disturbance (RECON SET)

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif

[DESTRUCTION5]

This popped up last night too on the 18Z run just west of tampa

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Yea the GFS is developing it on the front coming down next week.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

1 PM Friday the 3rd.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174l.gif

[DESTRUCTION5]

Yea the GFS is developing it on the front coming down next week.

Typical for our last 3 years..Home grown and possibly Dangerous..

[KWT]

Certainly interesting but if only yesterdays 18z and todays 12z GFS runs have developed it then I shouldn't think its all that likely to occur!
If it does occur then ther eis plenty of heat content for the ssytem to use but I think its one of those GFs phantom lows!

[cheezyWXguy]

Certainly interesting but if only yesterdays 18z and todays 12z GFS runs have developed it then I shouldn't think its all that likely to occur!

Actually, Ive noticed some kind of low popping up in the NE gulf with a few of the past model runs, and there were some mentions about it on here, but im not sure which topic it was

[KWT]

If thats the case then fair enough cheezyWXguy. Will watch the other model runs to see if they develop a low on the front. IF anything does form I reckon it'd be another messy hybrid tropical cyclone like Barry.

[jimvb]

Is this a tropical system, or is this merely a low or impulse on a cold front? A cold front is plunging too south for this time of the year; that could result in a hurricane; a Diana 1984. But is this a case of that or not?

In the meantime, I don't see that system that is supposed to strike the Carolinas around Aug 11-13 on this GFS run as far as hour 240.

[KWT]

Interestingly the 12z ECM also develops the low on the frontal system and takes it up through east LA, MI and AL a 1010mb low by 144hrs.
Maybe this will need closer watching then I first thought!

[Cyclone1]

I'll believe it when I see it.

[flwxwatcher]

Interestingly the 12z ECM also develops the low on the frontal system and takes it up through east LA, MI and AL a 1010mb low by 144hrs.
Maybe this will need closer watching then I first thought!

Besides the GFS and now the EURO.. this experimental site has been advertising something in the Northern Gulf the last 2 or 3 days.. animate the map

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ro ... ecast.html

[KFDM Meteorologist]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_162l.gif

0Z backed off.

[flwxwatcher]

the 12z GFS is hinting again at Eastern Gulf Development next week.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _126.shtml

[jimvb]

And also at a much larger storm off Hispaniola August 13 12Z. This storm also appeared in the 06Z run.

[caneman]

I'm really wondering if what the models are hinting at is what is actually sitting in the Gulf right now. Not terrible low pressure but did see one at 29.89. Anytime a mass sits in the Gulf like that during this part of the year,it BEARS watching.

[ronjon]

12Z GFS has this low as a warm core system. Shear forecast in the next 4-6 day timeframe also appears favorable for development, especially the further south in the GOM (east-central) versus just off the panhandle. What makes me a little nervous is that the GOM temps are extremely warm.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/07072812/110.html

[robbielyn]

I must be missing something and due to my novice status, it's not a surprise, but 1010 isn't that big a deal right? So why are people excited over it? right now montana has a 1000mb pressure which i know is over land but you see my point so please help me see what you see so I can get excited too. Thanks

[Meso]

Well a low pressure is all relevant to the nature of the low and it's surrounding pressures (Gradient). And a closed area of low pressure is what one normally looks out for,another thing is once there IS a closed low (lets say of 1010) it has the potential to deepen further and you get tropical depressions with a pressure of 1006 etc.

[ronjon]

I must be missing something and due to my novice status, it's not a surprise, but 1010 isn't that big a deal right? So why are people excited over it? right now montana has a 1000mb pressure which i know is over land but you see my point so please help me see what you see so I can get excited too. Thanks

Robbielyn, as Meso states, anytime you have a low pressure system with a closed cirulation over extremely warm water (think bathtub warm now), you have the potential for tropical cyclone development. Yes, the GFS depicts a weak low pressure now but these models are never very good at cyclogenesis (storm formation). In fact, most systems that develop are never predicted to do so or they may be predicted as something that is weak- the physics of this evolution is just not well understood. This is why intensity forecasts are so problematic because the models just can't account for the atmospheric factors that lead to rapid deepening. Any low pressure system in the GOM in August bears serious watching. Water temp at buoy 50 miles west of Egmont key is 88 deg.