Something to think About Looking at 1933, 1934, and 1935

[gatorcane]

If you look back in history 1933 was the second active season in hurricane history (first is 2005). The next year 1934 was very inactive just like 2006. Now here we are in 2007 and we have not had anything significant so far. If you look at 1935, there weren't alot of storms either but all of the significant activity didn't start until Aug 18th lasting through Nov. 8th with 3 storms impacting Florida, 2 of them major.

Could 2007 be an analagous year to 1935? Not necessarily as far as where these storms could hit, but how many and the intensity of them?


Name Date Wind Pres Cat
1 Tropical Storm #1 14-19 MAY 40 - -
2 Hurricane #2 27 JUN- 7 JUL 90 986 2
3 Tropical Storm #3 14-20 JUL 45 - -
4 Tropical Storm #4 21-27 JUL 40 - -
5 Hurricane #5 25 JUL- 5 AUG 80 981 1
6 Tropical Storm #6 12-20 AUG 50 - -
7 Tropical Storm #7 16-21 AUG 35 - -
8 Hurricane #8 17-26 AUG 105 971 3
9 Tropical Storm #9 24-31 AUG 45 - -
10 Tropical Storm #10 26-29 AUG 35 - -
11 Hurricane #11 28 AUG- 5 SEP 110 - 3
12 Hurricane #12 31 AUG- 7 SEP 120 948 4
13 Hurricane #13 8-21 SEP 105 957 3
14 Hurricane #14 10-15 SEP 75 960 1
15 Hurricane #15 16-25 SEP 95 962 2
16 Tropical Storm #16 27-30 SEP 40 - -
17 Tropical Storm #17 28-30 SEP 35 - -
18 Hurricane #18 1- 9 OCT 130 971 4
19 Hurricane #19 25 OCT- 7 NOV 85 - 2
20 Tropical Storm #20 26-30 OCT 60 - -
21 Tropical Storm #21 15-17 NOV 35 - -



# Name Date Wind Pres Cat
1 Tropical Storm #1 27-31 MAY 50 - -
2 Hurricane #2 4-21 JUN 70 - 1
3 Hurricane #3 21-26 JUL 65 - 1
4 Tropical Storm #4 20-23 AUG 35 - -
5 Hurricane #5 26 AUG- 1 SEP 70 - 1
6 Hurricane #6 5- 9 SEP 85 - 2
7 Tropical Storm #7 16-22 SEP 40 - -
8 Hurricane #8 1- 3 OCT 85 - 2
9 Tropical Storm #9 1- 6 OCT 50 - -
10 Tropical Storm #10 19-23 OCT 40 - -
11 Hurricane #11 20-28 NOV 75 - 1



# Name Date Wind Pres Cat
1 Hurricane #1 18-26 AUG 105 - 3
2 Hurricane #2 29 AUG-10 SEP 140 892 5
3 Tropical Storm #3 30 AUG- 1 SEP 40 - -
4 Hurricane #4 23 SEP- 2 OCT 105 - 3
5 Hurricane #5 19-27 OCT 75 988 1
6 Hurricane #6 30 OCT- 8 NOV 70 973 1

[jrod]

Granted the records back then have holes in them, I am still amazed by the Labor Day's storm track and especially the rapid intensification. When we see something like that again we will have some serious problems.

[gatorcane]

Indeed, that Labor Day storm formed Aug. 29th still well over three weeks from today.

[Sanibel]

Would not shock me at at. We are wicked hot and humid here in Florida. I'm not used to it after being in New York for 3 months. Last August I could stand in my garage and not be overwhelmed by the muggy-ness. This year it is overwhelming again.

Good stat gatorcane. I was the one to bring up the 1933-34 analogy in June 2006.

[TheShrimper]

Mark my word, there will be something to track the first week in September.

[johngaltfla]

Sadly, I have to agree. The end of this month is almost always trouble and I fear that we might all well be testing the server capacity here again. This is a fascinating thread and I'll be curious to see if the forecasts hold up or if it stays calm and we have a repeat of last year.

For some reason, I doubt that will be the case...

[canegrl04]

Things have been quiet for so long.But its highly unlikely Barry was the last named storm of the season.I fully expect the first hurricane to fire up before the end of August.

[gtalum]

...its highly unlikely Barry was the last named storm of the season..

Even more unlikely since there's already been a Chantal.

[Ed Mahmoud]

...its highly unlikely Barry was the last named storm of the season..

Even more unlikely since there's already been a Chantal.

Still not sure where CSU has gotten 13 more storms from, when every wave moving West through Africa looks awesome right until it gets offshore, and then dies. A normal season, I can accept, but my (unprofessional) gut says 13 more storms misses by 4 or 5.

[cheezyWXguy]

...its highly unlikely Barry was the last named storm of the season..

Even more unlikely since there's already been a Chantal.

Still not sure where CSU has gotten 13 more storms from, when every wave moving West through Africa looks awesome right until it gets offshore, and then dies. A normal season, I can accept, but my (unprofessional) gut says 13 more storms misses by 4 or 5.

Thats what happened in 2005, which is why we got so much home grown development...im not comparing this to 2005, but it doesnt necessarily mean ther wont be 13 more storms

[flwxwatcher]

Another point to bring up is the Storms in 1935 were short track storms( not Cape Verde). With the waters cooler in the Eastern Atlantic, storm development closer to the U.S seems like a good possibility this year and with it the possibility of a higher U.S. landfall chance. Time will tell.:)

[Recurve]

Like you said, maybe not analogous in track...but still, cross yourself or knock on wood or something when you say "1935."
Still the most intense US landfall, home-grown, ultrarapid intensification, and the most apalling evacuation failure before Katrina, but with none of the population and coastal development we have now.

Can't say squat about the weather in 35. But I've mentioned in a few threads, spring-early summer weather in the upper Keys was unusual -- probably from the troughiness, lack of Bermuda high, more westerly and southwesterly winds, we had many more thunderstorms than usual.

I liked 2006, I'll take Ernesto's "direct miss" any time. Love to see strong ULLs in the west Atlantic. Sorry to those whose parade that setup poops on. I know tracking fish don't thrill like the ones threatening land (other than Bermuda).

[Beam]

There's no connection between 1933-35 and 2005-07. That was then, this is now. Whatever happens this year is going to happen with no dependency on what happened over seventy years ago.

[Cyclone1]

That is a crazy statistic, but I'm sure it doesn't mean anything. Look at 1995-96-97. Interesting, but unrelated.

[Ptarmigan]

1934 and 1935 recorded less storms than in 1933. However, I think there were more storms that went undetected because we had no satellites. Notice in the Eastern Atlantic, there are no storms tracked in 1933, 1934, and 1935, which indicates they likely went undetected. They probably were treated as extratropical systems. I wold like to hear the Pro Mets take on this.

[Cyclone1]

1934 and 1935 recorded less storms than in 1933. However, I think there were more storms that went undetected because we had no satellites. Notice in the Eastern Atlantic, there are no storms tracked in 1933, 1934, and 1935, which indicates they likely went undetected. They probably were treated as extratropical systems. I wold like to hear the Pro Mets take on this.

No pro, but I fully believe that 1933 could have matched or even surpassed 2005. Look at Vince. If there was a Vince in 33, it wouldn't have been classified. Tammy probably wouldn't have been either. Or Bret. They were all TC's by today's standards, but back in 1933, it would have been much harder to find and classify storms like those. But that's off-topic.

[Ptarmigan]

No pro, but I fully believe that 1933 could have matched or even surpassed 2005. Look at Vince. If there was a Vince in 33, it wouldn't have been classified. Tammy probably wouldn't have been either. Or Bret. They were all TC's by today's standards, but back in 1933, it would have been much harder to find and classify storms like those. But that's off-topic.

I agree with that. I estimate that 1933 had 25 to 32 storms. It would not surprise me, if 1933 had at least one Category 5 hurricane. WXMan57 pointed out that on average, at least 2 storms went undetected and 1933 likely had more. 1914 season only had one storm recorded, but I find that highly dubious. I think 1914 was like 1977 or 1983, with 4 to 7 storms that formed, almost all of them fish storms.

[Ptarmigan]

Thats what happened in 2005, which is why we got so much home grown development...im not comparing this to 2005, but it doesnt necessarily mean ther wont be 13 more storms

We're too used to a hyperactive season, from 2003 to 2005. 2006 was a normal season.

[Sanibel]

I was going to add the point flwxwatcher made - that a weak African wave situation, as we see this year, corresponds with a "homebrew" storm like the labor day hurricane just off Florida. It would be denial to not see the relationship. The only thing you can add is that storm origins are random, so, if 1935 repeats, the homebrew monster could form anywhere. Caribbean SST's are hot. GOM is currently 90* off Sanibel. Homebrew could be wicked this year. These recent west Atlantic/Caribbean basin waves seem to have deep convection. Nearby waters are already signaling.

[Sanibel]

There's no connection between 1933-35 and 2005-07

Well, if you ignore the fact that they're identical - yeah, I guess...