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The major factor to consider with this storm is whether or not another high will build in west of the azores high, or whether a weakness will allow TD4 to recurve. I have a gut feeling not based on anything meteorological that we're looking at a recurve situation. The models don't seem to have any agreement on the possibility of a high forming around 80W on the east coast USA. CMC shows one forming which should allow it to stay WNW at 5 days, the GFDL doesn't have it built in with the azores high, and should allow it to recurve.
Possibilities for this system:
1. Recurve beginning at about 17N 70W. This is if the East coast high doesn't build in and connect with the azores high. My gut tells me this is the scenario.
2. A sharp Northwest turn around 15N 55W, followed by a West turn at about 22N 70W. (this is the worst case for SFL) - This could happen if the east coast high is later to build in. This is the Andrew track...
3. Uninterrupted movement to the WNW - the storm passes south of Hispaniola/Haiti and enters the GOM. (This is a TX/Mexico threat.) I think this is the least likely scenario.
Again just thoughts, not based on anything but my gut, and some years of watching.
Regards.
